John Ojal

Profile: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS)

Summary The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), located on the Indian Ocean coast of Kenya, was established in 2000 as a record of births, pregnancies, migration events and deaths and is maintained by 4-monthly household visits. The study area was selected to capture the majority of patients admitted to Kilifi District Hospital. The KHDSS has 260 000 residents and the hospital admits 4400 paediatric patients and 3400 adult patients per year. At the hospital, morbidity events are linked in real time by a computer search of the population register. Linked surveillance was extended to KHDSS vaccine clinics in 2008. KHDSS data have been used to define the incidence of hospital presentation with childhood infectious diseases (e.g. rotavirus diarrhoea, pneumococcal disease), to test the association between genetic risk factors (e.g. thalassaemia and sickle cell disease) and infectious diseases, to define the community prevalence of chronic diseases (e.g. epilepsy), to evaluate access to health care and to calculate the operational effectiveness of major public health interventions (e.g. conjugate Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine). Rapport with residents is maintained through an active programme of community engagement. A system of collaborative engagement exists for sharing data on survival, morbidity, socio-economic status and vaccine coverage.

Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Given Shortly After Birth Stimulates Effective Antibody Concentrations and Primes Immunological Memory for Sustained Infant Protection

Immunization of Kenyan newborns with 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine is safe and immunogenic. Compared with the Expanded Programme on Immunization schedule beginning at 6 weeks, it stimulates similar antibody concentrations at 18 weeks and induces equal responses to a 9-month booster dose.

Rates of Acquisition of Pneumococcal Colonization and Transmission Probabilities, by Serotype, Among Newborn Infants in Kilifi District, Kenya

This study determined the serotype-specific acquisition rates for pneumococcal colonization in a cohort of 1404 newborn infants followed intensively for 3 months. By observing pneumococcal carriage in family members, we were able to determine serotype-specific transmission probabilities between relatives.

Excess child mortality after discharge from hospital in Kilifi, Kenya: a retrospective cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVE To explore excess paediatric mortality after discharge from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and its duration and risk factors. METHODS Hospital and demographic data were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 15 years, by age group and clinical syndrome. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors. FINDINGS In 2004-2008, approximately 111,000 children were followed for 555,000 person-years. We analysed 14,971 discharges and 535 deaths occurring within 365 days of discharge. Mortality was higher in the post-discharge cohort than in the community cohort (age-adjusted rate ratio, RR: 7.7; 95% confidence interval, CI: 6.6-8.9) and declined little over time. An increased post-discharge mortality hazard was found in children aged < 5 years with the following: weight-for-age Z score < -4 (hazard ratio, HR: 6.5); weight-for-age Z score > -4 but < -3 (HR: 3.4); hypoxia (HR: 2.3); bacteraemia (HR: 1.8); hepatomegaly (HR: 2.3); jaundice (HR: 1.8); hospital stay > 13 days (HR: 1.8). Older age was protective (reference < 1 month): 6-23 months, HR: 0.8; 2-4 years, HR: 0.6. Children with at least one risk factor accounted for 545 (33%) of the 1655 annual discharges and for 39 (47%) of the 83 discharge-associated deaths. CONCLUSION Hospital admission selects vulnerable children with a sustained increased risk of dying. The risk factors identified provide an empiric basis for effective outpatient follow-up.

Acute seizures attributable to falciparum malaria in an endemic area on the Kenyan coast

Falciparum malaria is an important cause of acute symptomatic seizures in children admitted to hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa, and these seizures are associated with neurological disabilities and epilepsy. However, it is difficult to determine the proportion of seizures attributable to malaria in endemic areas since a significant proportion of asymptomatic children have malaria parasitaemia. We studied children aged 0–13 years who had been admitted with a history of seizures to a rural Kenyan hospital between 2002 and 2008. We examined the changes in the incidence of seizures with the reduction of malaria. Logistic regression was used to model malaria-attributable fractions for seizures (the proportion of seizures caused by malaria) to determine if the observed decrease in acute symptomatic seizures was a measure of seizures that are attributable to malaria. The overall incidence of acute symptomatic seizures over the period was 651/100 000/year (95% confidence interval 632–670) and it was 400/100 000/year (95% confidence interval 385–415) for acute complex symptomatic seizures (convulsive status epilepticus, repetitive or focal) and 163/100 000/year (95% confidence interval 154–173) for febrile seizures. From 2002 to 2008, the incidence of all acute symptomatic seizures decreased by 809/100 000/year (69.2%) with 93.1% of this decrease in malaria-associated seizures. The decrease in the incidence of acute complex symptomatic seizures during the period was 111/100 000/year (57.2%) for convulsive status epilepticus, 440/100 000/year (73.7%) for repetitive seizures and 153/100 000/year (80.5%) for focal seizures. The adjusted malaria-attributable fractions for seizures with parasitaemia were 92.9% (95% confidence interval 90.4–95.1%) for all acute symptomatic seizures, 92.9% (95% confidence interval 89.4–95.5%) for convulsive status epilepticus, 93.6% (95% confidence interval 90.9–95.9%) for repetitive seizures and 91.8% (95% confidence interval 85.6–95.5%) for focal seizures. The adjusted malaria-attributable fractions for seizures in children above 6 months of age decreased with age. The observed decrease in all acute symptomatic seizures (809/100 000/year) was similar to the predicted decline (794/100 000/year) estimated by malaria-attributable fractions at the beginning of the study. In endemic areas, falciparum malaria is the most common cause of seizures and the risk for seizures in malaria decreases with age. The reduction in malaria has decreased the burden of seizures that are attributable to malaria and this could lead to reduced neurological disabilities and epilepsy in the area.

Immunogenicity, Impact on Carriage and Reactogenicity of 10-Valent Pneumococcal Non-Typeable Haemophilus influenzae Protein D Conjugate Vaccine in Kenyan Children Aged 1–4 Years: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Background The impact on carriage and optimal schedule for primary vaccination of older children with 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein-D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) are unknown. Methods 600 Kenyan children aged 12–59 months were vaccinated at days 0, 60 and 180 in a double-blind randomized controlled trial according to the following vaccine sequence: Group A: PHiD-CV, PHiD-CV, diphtheria/tetanus/acellular pertussis vaccine (DTaP); Group B: PHiD-CV, DTaP, PHiD-CV; Group C: hepatitis A vaccine (HAV), DTaP, HAV. Nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae was measured at five timepoints. In 375 subjects, serotype-specific responses were measured by 22F-inhibition ELISA and opsonophagocytic killing assays (OPA) one month after vaccination. Results Following one dose of PHiD-CV, >90% of recipients developed IgG≥0.35 µg/mL to serotypes 1, 4, 5, 7F, 9V and 18C and OPA≥8 to serotypes 4, 7F, 9V, 18C, 23F. After a second dose >90% of recipients had IgG≥0.35 µg/mL to all vaccine serotypes and OPA≥8 to all vaccine serotypes except 1 and 6B. At day 180, carriage of vaccine-type pneumococci was 21% in recipients of two doses of PHiD-CV (Group A) compared to 31% in controls (p = 0.04). Fever after dose 1 was reported by 41% of PHiD-CV recipients compared to 26% of HAV recipients (p<0.001). Other local and systemic adverse experiences were similar between groups. Conclusions Vaccination of children aged 12–59 months with two doses of PHiD-CV two to six months apart was immunogenic, reduced vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage and was well-tolerated. Administration of PHiD-CV would be expected to provide effective protection against vaccine-type disease. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01028326

The INDEPTH standard population for low- and middle-income countries, 2013

Crude rates such as the crude death rate are functions of both the age-specific rates and the age composition of a population. However, differences in the age structure between two populations or two time periods can result in specious differences in the corresponding crude rates making direct comparisons between populations or across time inappropriate. Therefore, when comparing crude rates between populations, it is desirable to eliminate or minimize the influence of age composition. This task is accomplished by using a standard age structure yielding an age-standardized rate. This paper proposes an updated International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH) standard for use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) based on newly available data from the health and demographic surveillance system site members of the INDEPTH network located throughout Africa and southern Asia. The updated INDEPTH standard should better reflect the age structure of LMICs and result in more accurate health indicators and demographic rates. We demonstrate use of the new INDEPTH standard along with several existing ‘world’ standards and show how resulting age-standardized crude deaths rates differ when using the various standard age compositions.

Burden of disease in adults admitted to hospital in a rural region of coastal Kenya: an analysis of data from linked clinical and demographic surveillance systems

Summary Background Estimates of the burden of disease in adults in sub-Saharan Africa largely rely on models of sparse data. We aimed to measure the burden of disease in adults living in a rural area of coastal Kenya with use of linked clinical and demographic surveillance data. Methods We used data from 18 712 adults admitted to Kilifi District Hospital (Kilifi, Kenya) between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2012, linked to 790 635 person-years of observation within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, to establish the rates and major causes of admission to hospital. These data were also used to model disease-specific disability-adjusted life-years lost in the population. We used geographical mapping software to calculate admission rates stratified by distance from the hospital. Findings The main causes of admission to hospital in women living within 5 km of the hospital were infectious and parasitic diseases (303 per 100 000 person-years of observation), pregnancy-related disorders (239 per 100 000 person-years of observation), and circulatory illnesses (105 per 100 000 person-years of observation). Leading causes of hospital admission in men living within 5 km of the hospital were infectious and parasitic diseases (169 per 100 000 person-years of observation), injuries (135 per 100 000 person-years of observation), and digestive system disorders (112 per 100 000 person-years of observation). HIV-related diseases were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years lost (2050 per 100 000 person-years of observation), followed by non-communicable diseases (741 per 100 000 person-years of observation). For every 5 km increase in distance from the hospital, all-cause admission rates decreased by 11% (95% CI 7–14) in men and 20% (17–23) in women. The magnitude of this decline was highest for endocrine disorders in women (35%; 95% CI 22–46) and neoplasms in men (30%; 9–45). Interpretation Adults in rural Kenya face a combined burden of infectious diseases, pregnancy-related disorders, cardiovascular illnesses, and injuries. Disease burden estimates based on hospital data are affected by distance from the hospital, and the amount of underestimation of disease burden differs by both disease and sex. Funding The Wellcome Trust, GAVI Alliance.

Multiple clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a low transmission intensity setting: exposure versus immunity

BackgroundEpidemiological studies indicate that some children experience many more episodes of clinical malaria than their age mates in a given location. Whether this is as a result of the micro-heterogeneity of malaria transmission with some children effectively getting more exposure to infectious mosquitoes than others, or reflects a failure in the acquisition of immunity needs to be elucidated. Here, we investigated the determinants of increased susceptibility to clinical malaria by comparing the intensity of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and the acquisition of immunity in children at the extreme ends of the over-dispersed distribution of the incidence of clinical malaria.MethodsThe study was nested within a larger cohort in an area where the intensity of malaria transmission was low. We identified children who over a five-year period experienced 5 to 16 clinical malaria episodes (children at the tail-end of the over-dispersed distribution, n = 35), remained malaria-free (n = 12) or had a single episode (n = 26). We quantified antibodies against seven Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens in plasma obtained at six cross-sectional surveys spanning these five years. We analyzed the antibody responses to identify temporal dynamics that associate with disease susceptibility.ResultsChildren experiencing multiple episodes of malaria were more likely to be parasite positive by microscopy at cross-sectional surveys (X2 test for trend 14.72 P = 0.001) and had a significantly higher malaria exposure index, than those in the malaria-free or single episode groups (Kruskal-Wallis test P = 0.009). In contrast, the five-year temporal dynamics of anti-merozoite antibodies were similar in the three groups. Importantly in all groups, antibody levels were below the threshold concentrations previously observed to be correlated with protective immunity.ConclusionsWe conclude that in the context of a low malaria transmission setting, susceptibility to clinical malaria is not accounted for by anti-merozoite antibodies but appears to be a consequence of increased parasite exposure. We hypothesize that intensive exposure is a prerequisite for protective antibody concentrations, while little to modest exposure may manifest as multiple clinical infections with low levels of antibodies. These findings have implications for interventions that effectively lower malaria transmission intensity.

The clinical epidemiology of sickle cell anemia in Africa.

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is the commonest severe monogenic disorders of humans. The disease has been highly characterized in high‐income countries but not in sub‐Saharan Africa where SCA is most prevalent. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all children 0–13 years admitted from within a defined study area to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya over a five‐year period. Children were genotyped for SCA retrospectively and incidence rates calculated with reference to population data. Overall, 576 of 18,873 (3.1%) admissions had SCA of whom the majority (399; 69.3%) were previously undiagnosed. The incidence of all‐cause hospital admission was 57.2/100 person years of observation (PYO; 95%CI 52.6–62.1) in children with SCA and 3.7/100 PYO (95%CI 3.7–3.8) in those without SCA (IRR 15.3; 95%CI 14.1–16.6). Rates were higher for the majority of syndromic diagnoses at all ages beyond the neonatal period, being especially high for severe anemia (hemoglobin <50 g/L; IRR 58.8; 95%CI 50.3–68.7), stroke (IRR 486; 95%CI 68.4–3,450), bacteremia (IRR 23.4; 95%CI 17.4–31.4), and for bone (IRR 607; 95%CI 284–1,300), and joint (IRR 80.9; 95%CI 18.1–362) infections. The use of an algorithm based on just five clinical features would have identified approximately half of all SCA cases among hospital‐admitted children with a number needed to test to identify each affected patient of only fourteen. Our study illustrates the clinical epidemiology of SCA in a malaria‐endemic environment without specific interventions. The targeted testing of hospital‐admitted children using the Kilifi Algorithm provides a pragmatic approach to early diagnosis in high‐prevalence countries where newborn screening is unavailable.