John P. Crank

The Problems of Water

Water is described as the “fist” of global warming for the power of the destructive forces it can unleash. In this chapter, we look at many different ways water can create adverse outcomes under conditions of global warming. Our first topic is cyclonic storms. Three storms are discussed. Katrina, importantly, blew into New Orleans on an ocean considerably higher than it could have been one hundred years ago—because of ocean increases and subsidence, the ocean level at nearby Grand Isle was 23 inches higher than it was in 1947. Katrina’s destruction of the criminal justice system in New Orleans portends issues related to rising ocean waters and fixed justice structures in low-lying cities globally. By looking at crime associated with Katrina, we can also gain insight into the consequences of catastrophe-induced migration. We follow this with a discussion of Superstorm Sandy and its implications for the northeastern US Seaboard. Our next topic is rising oceans and coastal inundation. Advocates of risk management recommend planning for a five to seven foot increase in water levels for coastal areas in anticipation of rising ocean levels; the Eastern Seaboard of the United States is expected to face even greater rises due to its vulnerability to ocean thermal expansion and water pooling. Our next topic is water’s absence, manifested in drought. The Western United States, along with many other areas, is expected to face drought over the short-term, and in many places transition to desertification across the long-term. The breadbaskets of the Great Plains and of the Sacramento Valley are particularly vulnerable and are not expected to survive as food-producing areas. Water overuse and anticipated shortages are seen in many of the worlds aquifers. Coastal cities face the additional stress of freshwater poisoning from saltwater intrusion. The Ogallala, providing water across the Western United States, is predicted to be functionally depleted by the 2050s. Given the drying out of the lower latitudes across the globe that climate change will bring, there is currently no way that adequate water exists to provide for the needs of a rapidly growing world population.

The Challenges of Global Warming Research

This chapter focuses on two items. First, it addresses the issue of global warming in a hostile political environment. Second, it looks at what might be called the basic research element connecting global warming to crime: research on the relationship between crime and weather. The first item addresses the nature of research itself—how do we recognize when research is any good? There is a great deal of bad and misleading research on global warming. How do we know which is bad and which is good? The chapter begins with a discussion of three articles on Greenland melt-off, each with quite different implications, and discusses how to tell which is a legitimate research summary and which is not. It then provides a discussion of what constitutes good research generally and what one should look for when research is poorly done or intentionally misleading. For the second item, global warming and crime, we begin with a discussion of the difference between climate and weather. Much of this section is a review of Cohn’s work on temperature, crime, and violent crime. We also discuss the Ranson model, which provides a good description of the way in which crime can be modeled and predicted using data and research methods derived from the global warming literature.

Favela and Metropolis: The Crucibles of Crime in a Megaurban Environment

This chapter, expanding on the previous one, looks at the violence characteristics of the zones around core cities, which we call periurban areas because they represent the urban-rural interface and because they typically provide few if any urban services. Many of these areas are violence crucibles, or areas where the causes of violence, violent outcomes, and violence consequences are so intertwined that they cannot be separated cleanly. We use the term “favela” generically, to refer to the large periurban populations ringing core cities globally. To assist in understanding these areas, we consider the variables poverty, income inequality, rapidity of growth, population density, age structure, rural-to-urban migration, and competition for limited resources, particularly land-grabbing practices. Urban gangs are presented as a measure of state power. Illicit markets, under the immediate control of local gangs and more distant control of organized crime syndicates, are discussed for their plasticity, which refers to their ability to relocate rapidly in changing environmental conditions. Because urban government and businesses are tied to physical structures, they are much more economically at risk to sea-rise and other global warming hazards than are illicit organized crime. Moreover, organized crime is rapidly globalizing, already consuming about 10% of the global gross product. As aspects of the urban physical environment deteriorates in conditions of global warming, illicit organized crime looks poised to take increasingly large shares of the legal marketplace and to outcompete municipal police for the provision of security.

Climate Change Denial

This chapter uses a political economy model to present denialism, described as broad efforts to deny the existence of global warming or man-made causes of global warming. In the United States, denialism strategies have effectively undercut the ability of the nation to coherently respond to global warming past the time when such measures might have prevented minimal global warming effects. We begin with a discussion of scientific consensus and what consensus means, and note that a review of peer-reviewed research shows a 99% consensus on anthropogenic (man-made) global warming. Public opinion polls, however, show that citizens believe that scientific consensus is considerably lower. We turn to political economy perspectives to explain the difference between citizen and scientific views. We show the economics that justify the use of fossil fuels for developing countries—a Kuznets curve—which is often used to show that as countries modernize, their use of fossil fuels declines. On the other hand, pollution havens—areas where industrialized countries send their waste products—suggest that development is actually at the expense of poorer countries. We next consider the primary producers of carbon emissions and what entities control their activities. By tracing dark money, which is concealed money that moves from global investors through several passes through organizations, we show how corporate entities move funds to local political action committees and grass roots organizations. This movement of funds is used to create the impression of political divisiveness on the issue of global warming and, hence, citizen perceptions of scientific dissensus where none exists. Some of these pass-through organizations also provide support for a variety of legislators, as can be seen in several examples shown in the book. A concluding discussion of Nike, Coca-Cola, and Munich Re, an international insurer, shows how organizations can provide leadership on global warming issues.

Conclusion: Whither the Social Contract?

This chapter briefly summarizes and makes recommendations. This book has, on each substantive topic, asked three questions: (1) What is the current state of the risk, (2) what are the central developments for risk in the coming years in each area considered, and (3) how will global warming affect those risks? We present highlights of the central findings. Those findings are organized under the following categories: Aspects of global warming, resource scarcities, migration, crime and violence, and state security. We then present our recommendations. Our recommendations are specifically for the fields of criminology and criminal justice, though they are equally applicable to sister fields of public administration, sociology, political science, and military science. Six recommendations are provided. These include aligning part of our methods and stats with earth sciences so that we can work together in anticipating, mitigating, or adapting to global warming changes; developing the field focus on global warming that a strong peer-reviewed journal would provide; and procuring scholarships and developing postdoctorate opportunities in the field of global warming.

Refugee Migration and Settlement Amid Climate change: A Prescription for violence?

This chapter begins with a discussion of the term “refugee,” and distinguishes the terms refugee, climate refugee, and global warming refugee. Refugees, we note, are substantially vulnerable to violence of all kinds, from governments to organized crime to small business entrepreneurs. A discussion of Typhoon Haiyan, seemingly the most powerful cyclonic storm in our history, shows how large populations can emerge who are destitute and absent resources even when they decide to stay in their home areas, and consequently become a substantial economic strain for local governments. An alternative perspective is presented, arguing that after calamity, those most severely damaged can provide a stabilizing force for their communities. We follow this discussion with a section on refugees and opportunity theory. Refugees, because their wealth is typically either what they carry or their own bodies, and because they rarely have adequate security or guardianship, are vulnerable to the most horrific crimes, in particular, sex slavery (though arguably some crimes are quite a bit worse). This is followed by an exploration of the effects of global warming on refugee populations, with a particular focus on a four degree Celsius increase in global temperatures. We close by noting that the status “climate refugee” is not currently recognized by the United Nations, putting millions of individuals at risk without help of international intervention.

Security Issues and Global Warming

This chapter begins with a discussion of the increasing empowerment of nonstate actors to challenge nation-states for commerce and security. One of the central trends is the operational coordination of organized crime and terrorist entities. They tend to share the same pipelines and at times some of the same personnel since both have a need for similar specialized skills. We witness the emergence of the third generation of guerillas, described as leaderless or horizontal in structure, global, and highly adaptable to urban areas. Crevald’s position on guerilla wars is discussed—he asserted that states can never effectively combat guerilla wars. We then discuss the many ways in which transnational criminal organizations and terrorists are working together in the current era. From there, we assess the roles of criminalized states and “black holes,” geographical areas not controlled by state-based security entities. We discuss how global warming works to enhance the strengths of nonstate actors, while at the same time undermining or limiting state security. This chapter closes with a discussion of the security changes likely to be associated with an ice-free Arctic Ocean. We look at changes already occurring, and assess the roles played by the United States, Canada, Russia, and China. All are in exploration stages for previously inaccessible resources, and most are increasing their military presence across the region.

The Future of Migration: A Planet of Megacities

The central theme of this chapter is that the greatest migration in the history of the human race, the movement of people to coastal megacities, is on a collision course with rising seas, with no good outcomes foreseen. The chapter begins with a discussion of migration patterns as they pertain to megacities—cities over 10 million—and megadeltas, which are large cities located on expansive, fertile coastal deltas around the world. Several megacities are briefly reviewed. We discuss their projected population growth, their access to fresh water, and their precarious locations on low-lying, ocean-facing deltas. Next, we discuss the megacity phenomenon. Modernization, as it occurred in the United States and Europe in the nineteenth century, is only now occurring in the developing world. Citizens across the globe seek the same advantages produced by earlier waves of modernization. A consequence of this is urbanization, which is the steady movement of people from rural to urban areas, with the vast majority moving to megacities. Increasingly, the cities are a core city surrounded by a large zone characterized by migrant settlers, inequality, and poverty. Some of these zones contain millions of citizens, and the core city cannot afford basic services such as sewer, security, water, and public health care. Consequently, they are vulnerable to high levels of crime of all types, and increasingly, of organized crime. These areas are fated for disaster: they tend to be where the oceans are inundating low areas of the city.

States and Their Challengers

One of the enduring questions about climate change is the loosely phrased “Will climate change destroy civilization?” We reword this phrase to discuss the impact of global warming on nation-states. We first identify the current organization of states, called the Westphalian system after the treaty of Westphalia in 1648. Current research suggests that the Westphalian system is not stable and at risk of rapid change and possibly, collapse. Many nation-states are already under considerable economic stress, and some have become criminal states. The impact of global warming will sharply increase these stresses, with the possible outcome that only a small number of strong states may survive into the next century. We then ask—what are the challengers to the primacy of state authority? The first we consider are other states. Here we discuss war, noting that over 100 million people were killed in wars in the previous (twentieth) century. Factors associated with war and war-like conflicts are then discussed, and we look at the impact global warming is likely to have on those factors. We next assess globalization and the many ways it is undermining state authority in the current era. Inequality and marginalization are globally increasing and has been for several years; it is seen as a potential source of state vulnerability, particularly as global warming impacts their ability to provide security for their citizens. We then look at the “Failed States Index” to review those countries most vulnerable to decline and collapse, or at risk of turning into criminal states. Within some states, we see the emergence of feral cities, which refer to cities that no longer rely on state supports for their well-being. Mogadishu is presented as the first feral city, and its characteristics—including its lack of governability and absence of centralized control—are discussed.

What Is Global Warming

In this chapter, we introduce students to the basic notion of global warming. We begin with a discussion of the historical ordinariness of global temperature swings, reviewing patterns of temperature changes across glaciations in the most recent glacial period. This is followed by a discussion of the nature of greenhouse gases, how they heat the planet, and the centrality of CO 2 in the production of weather. The earth’s energy budget is presented as a chart that illustrates how various elements of the planet and its atmosphere interact to arrive at average temperatures. Following this is a discussion of human-created sources of greenhouse gases heating the planet, and here we introduce the concept of climate forcings, or external variables that are responsible for causing global temperature increases (or decreases). Primary and secondary feedbacks are shown as mechanisms in which warming, once it reaches a certain level, tends to become self-fulfilling, increasing the rate and level of heating beyond human capacity to intervene. Critical tipping points, or points at which fundamental changes in the climate will occur, are followed by a discussion of climate sensitivity, which is the assessment of the amount of temperature increase associated with increments of greenhouse gases. Finally, we ask “how hot will it get,” and close with a discussion of overall heating capacity for short- and long-term periods and a discussion of the duration of greenhouse gases, once introduced into the atmosphere.