John Paden

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise. The mass balance of the polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques. We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

Advanced Multifrequency Radar Instrumentation for Polar Research

This paper presents a radar sensor package specifically developed for wide-coverage sounding and imaging of polar ice sheets from a variety of aircraft. Our instruments address the need for a reliable remote sensing solution well-suited for extensive surveys at low and high altitudes and capable of making measurements with fine spatial and temporal resolution. The sensor package that we are presenting consists of four primary instruments and ancillary systems with all the associated antennas integrated into the aircraft to maintain aerodynamic performance. The instruments operate simultaneously over different frequency bands within the 160 MHz-18 GHz range. The sensor package has allowed us to sound the most challenging areas of the polar ice sheets, ice sheet margins, and outlet glaciers; to map near-surface internal layers with fine resolution; and to detect the snow-air and snow-ice interfaces of snow cover over sea ice to generate estimates of snow thickness. In this paper, we provide a succinct description of each radar and associated antenna structures and present sample results to document their performance. We also give a brief overview of our field measurement programs and demonstrate the unique capability of the sensor package to perform multifrequency coincidental measurements from a single airborne platform. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of using multispectral radar data as a tool to characterize the entire ice column and to reveal important subglacial features.

Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Several decades of ice-penetrating radar surveys of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have observed numerous widespread internal reflections. Analysis of this radiostratigraphy has produced valuable insights into ice sheet dynamics and motivates additional mapping of these reflections. Here we present a comprehensive deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne deep ice-penetrating radar data collected over Greenland by The University of Kansas between 1993 and 2013. To map this radiostratigraphy efficiently, we developed new techniques for predicting reflection slope from the phase recorded by coherent radars. When integrated along track, these slope fields predict the radiostratigraphy and simplify semiautomatic reflection tracing. Core-intersecting reflections were dated using synchronized depth-age relationships for six deep ice cores. Additional reflections were dated by matching reflections between transects and by extending reflection-inferred depth-age relationships using the local effective vertical strain rate. The oldest reflections, dating to the Eemian period, are found mostly in the northern part of the ice sheet. Within the onset regions of several fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams, reflections typically do not conform to the bed topography. Disrupted radiostratigraphy is also observed in a region north of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that is not presently flowing rapidly. Dated reflections are used to generate a gridded age volume for most of the ice sheet and also to determine the depths of key climate transitions that were not observed directly. This radiostratigraphy provides a new constraint on the dynamics and history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points Phase information predicts reflection slope and simplifies reflection tracing Reflections can be dated away from ice cores using a simple ice flow model Radiostratigraphy is often disrupted near the onset of fast ice flow

Fast retreat of Zachariæ Isstrøm, northeast Greenland

Shrinking shelf and faster flow Zachariæ Isstrøm, a large glacier in northeast Greenland, began a rapid retreat after detaching from a stabilizing sill in the late 1990s. Mouginot et al. report that between 2002 and 2014, the area covered by the glaciers ice shelf shrank by 95%; since 1999, the glaciers flow rate has nearly doubled; and its acceleration increased threefold in the fall of 2012. These dramatic changes appear to be the result of a combination of warmer air and ocean temperatures and the topography of the ocean floor at the head of the glacier. Rising sea levels should continue to destabilize the marine portion of Zachariæ Isstrøm for decades. Science, this issue p. 1357 A large glacier in northeast Greenland is retreating rapidly as air and ocean warm. After 8 years of decay of its ice shelf, Zachariæ Isstrøm, a major glacier of northeast Greenland that holds a 0.5-meter sea-level rise equivalent, entered a phase of accelerated retreat in fall 2012. The acceleration rate of its ice velocity tripled, melting of its residual ice shelf and thinning of its grounded portion doubled, and calving is now occurring at its grounding line. Warmer air and ocean temperatures have caused the glacier to detach from a stabilizing sill and retreat rapidly along a downward-sloping, marine-based bed. Its equal-ice-volume neighbor, Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, is also melting rapidly but retreating slowly along an upward-sloping bed. The destabilization of this marine-based sector will increase sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet for decades to come.

Seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice initialized with observations of ice thickness

Seasonal forecasts of the September 2012 Arctic sea ice thickness and extent are conducted starting from 1 June 2012. An ensemble of forecasts is made with a coupled ice-ocean model. For the first time, observations of the ice thickness are used to correct the initial ice thickness distribution to improve the initial conditions. Data from two airborne campaigns are used: NASA Operation IceBridge and SIZONet. The model was advanced through April and May using reanalysis data from 2012 and for June–September it was forced with reanalysis data from the previous seven summers. The ice extent in the corrected runs averaged lower in the Pacific sector and higher in the Atlantic sector compared to control runs with no corrections. The redicted total ice extent is 4.4 +/� 0.5 M km2, 0.2 M km2 less than that made with the control runs but 0.8 M km2 higher than the observed September extent

Ice-sheet bed 3-D tomography

Information on bed topography and basal conditions is essential to developing the next- generation ice-sheet models needed to generate a more accurate estimate of ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the ice-bed can be analyzed to obtain information on bed topography and basal conditions. We developed a wideband SAR, which was used during July 2005 to perform measurements over a series of tracks between the GISP2 and GRIP cores near Summit Camp, Greenland. The wideband SAR included an eight-element receive-antenna array with multiple-phase centers. We applied the MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm, which estimates direction of arrival signals, to single-pass multichannel data collected as part of this experiment to obtain fine-resolution bed topography. This information is used for producing fine- resolution estimates of bed topography over a large swath of 1600 m, with a 25 m posting and a relative accuracy of approximately 10 m. The algorithm-derived estimate of ice thickness is within 10 m of the GRIP ice-core length. Data collected on two parallel tracks separated by 500 m and a perpendicular track are compared and found to have difference standard deviations of 9.1 and 10.3 m for the parallel and perpendicular tracks, respectively.

Wideband measurements of ice sheet attenuation and basal scattering

We are developing a multifrequency multistatic synthetic aperture radar (SAR) for determining polar ice sheet basal conditions. To obtain data for designing and optimizing radar performance, we performed field measurements with a network-analyzer-based system during the 2003 field season at the North Greenland Ice Core Project camp (75.1 N and 42.3 W). From the measurements, we determine the ice sheet complex transfer function over the frequency range from 110-500 MHz by deconvolving out the system transfer function. Over this frequency range, we observe an increase in total loss of 8/spl plusmn/2.5 dB using a linear regression to the log-scale data. With the ice sheet transfer function and an ice extinction model, we estimate the return loss from the basal surface to be approximately 37 dB. These measurements have broad applicability to interpreting radar-sounding data, which are widely used in glaciological studies of the polar ice sheets. These data have also been used in the link budget for the design considerations of the multifrequency multistatic SAR system.

High-Altitude Radar Measurements of Ice Thickness Over the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets as a Part of Operation IceBridge

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated a program called Operation IceBridge for monitoring critical parts of Greenland and Antarctica with airborne LIDARs until ICESat-II is launched in 2016. We have been operating radar instrumentation on the NASA DC-8 and P-3 aircraft used for LIDAR measurements over Antarctica and Greenland, respectively. The radar package on both aircraft includes a radar depth sounder/imager operating at the center frequency of 195 MHz. During high-altitude missions flown to perform surface-elevation measurements, we also collected radar depth sounder data. We obtained good ice thickness information and mapped internal layers for both thicker and thinner ice. We successfully sounded 3.2-km-thick low-loss ice with a smooth surface and also sounded about 1-km or less thick shallow ice with a moderately rough surface. The successful sounding required processing of data with an algorithm to obtain 56-dB or lower range sidelobes and array processing with a minimum variance distortionless response algorithm to reduce cross-track surface clutter. In this paper, we provide a brief description of the radar system, discuss range-sidelobe reduction and array processing algorithms, and provide sample results to demonstrate the successful sounding of the ice bottom interface from high altitudes over the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.

Radar attenuation and temperature within the Greenland Ice Sheet

©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. The flow of ice is temperature-dependent, but direct measurements of englacial temperature are sparse. The dielectric attenuation of radio waves through ice is also temperature-dependent, and radar sounding of ice sheets is sensitive to this attenuation. Here we estimate depth-averaged radar-attenuation rates within the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne radar-sounding data and its associated radiostratigraphy. Using existing empirical relationships between temperature, chemistry, and radar attenuation, we then infer the depth-averaged englacial temperature. The dated radiostratigraphy permits a correction for the confounding effect of spatially varying ice chemistry. Where radar transects intersect boreholes, radar-inferred temperature is consistently higher than that measured directly. We attribute this discrepancy to the poorly recognized frequency dependence of the radar-attenuation rate and correct for this effect empirically, resulting in a robust relationship between radar-inferred and borehole-measured depth-averaged temperature. Radar-inferred englacial temperature is often lower than modern surface temperature and that of a steady state ice-sheet model, particularly in southern Greenland. This pattern suggests that past changes in surface boundary conditions (temperature and accumulation rate) affect the ice sheets present temperature structure over a much larger area than previously recognized. This radar-inferred temperature structure provides a new constraint for thermomechanical models of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Sensitivity Analysis of Pine Island Glacier ice flow using ISSM and DAKOTA

Assessing output errors of ice flow models is a major challenge that needs to be addressed if we are to increase our confidence level in projections of mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland. Major inputs to ice flow models include geometry (ice thickness and surface elevation), constitutive laws and boundary conditions (geothermal flux, basal drag coefficient, surface temperature). These inputs can be either measured, in which case they carry errors due to instruments, or inferred using inverse methods (such as basal drag which is inverted using InSAR surface velocities) in which case they carry additional errors generated by the inversion process itself. In both cases, these input errors will result in uncertainties that propagate throughout a forward model, and that influence output diagnostics. In order to estimate the resulting error margins on diagnostics such as mass flux, we develop a new framework based on the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA), which we interface to the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We present results on the Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, for which we evaluate error margins of mass flux across the whole glacier, given currently known error margins on ice thickness, basal friction and ice hardness. Our results suggest errors in these inputs propagate linearly through the ice flow model, providing a way to 1) calibrate measurement requirements for field campaigns collecting data such as bedrock or surface topography 2) quantify uncertainties in projections of mass balance and 3) assess the sensitivity of model outputs to input parameters. This new error propagation model should help quantify confidence levels that we assign to model projections for the mass balance of Antarctica and Greenland, which will ultimately improve our projections of future sea level rise in a warming climate. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.