John Piggott

A Microeconometric Model of the Demand for Health Care and Health Insurance in Australia

This paper develops a model for interdependent demand for health insurance and health care under uncertainty to throw light on the issue of insurance-induced distortions in the demand for health care services. The model is used to empirically analyse the determinants of the choice of health insurance type and seven types of health care services using micro-level data from the 1977–78 Australian Health Survey. Econometric implementation of the model involves, simultaneously, issues of discreteness of choice, selectivity and stochastic dependence between health insurance and utilization. Health status appears to be more important in determining health care service use than health insurance choice, while income appears to be more important in determining health insurance choice than in determining health care service use. For a broad range of health care services both moral hazard and self selection are found to be important determinants of utilization of health care services.

New Developments in Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

First published in 1985 and written by leading contributors to the field of general equilibrium analysis, this volume brings together developments in the field of applied general equilibrium modelling. Papers discuss approaches to welfare measurement in applied models, applications to hitherto unexplored areas, such as economic history, extensions to analyse micro data files, regional analyses, fixed price equilibria, and many others. Earlier versions of the papers in this volume were presented at a conference held in Canberra, Australia.

Asset rich and cash poor: retirement provision and housing policy in Singapore

National defined contribution pension systems have long been a mainstay of retirement income in Asia. One of the oldest and best known of these systems is the Singaporean Central Provident Fund, a mandatory retirement scheme managed by the central government for almost a half-century. With required contribution rates that have ranged up to 50%, this program has powerfully shaped asset accumulation patterns and housing portfolios. This paper explores how the structure and design of the Singaporean retirement and housing schemes influence wealth levels and asset mix at retirement. Our model indicates that outcomes rest critically on the interlinked national retirement and housing programs. We show that policies to enhance one program may boost retirement replacement rates but can also lower total wealth in unexpected ways. The lessons we draw may serve as guidance for other countries constructing a national defined contribution retirement system.

Applied general equilibrium

ORANI Projections for the Australian Economy for 1989 to 2020 with Special Reference to the Land Freight Industry.- Public Good Provision Rules and Income Distribution: Some General Equilibrium Calculations.- The Pagan-Shannon Approximation: Unconditional Systematic Sensitivity in Minutes.- A Long Term Model of Oil Markets, Economic Growth and Balance of Payment Constraints.- A General Equilibrium Appraisal of Energy Policy in Mexico.- An Empirical Database for a General Equilibrium Model of the European Communities.- Three Variants of the Whalley Model of Global Trade.- Industrial Organization Implications of QR Trade Regimes: Evidence and Welfare Costs.

Does retirement age impact mortality

The relationship between retirement and mortality is studied with a unique administrative data set covering the full population of Norway. A series of retirement policy changes in Norway reduced the retirement age for a group of workers but not for others. Difference-in-differences estimation based on monthly birth cohorts and treatment group status show that the early retirement programme significantly reduced the retirement age; this holds true also when we account for programme substitution, for example into the disability pension. Instrumental variables estimation results show no effect on mortality of retirement age; neither do estimation results from a hazard rate model.

Securitization of Longevity Risk in Reverse Mortgages

The reverse mortgage market has been expanding rapidly in developed economies in recent years. The onset of demographic transition places a rapidly rising number of households in an age window in which reverse mortgages have potential appeal. Increasing prices for residential real estate over the last decade have further stimulated interest.Reverse mortgages involve various risks from the provider-s perspective that may hinder the further development of these financial products. This paper addresses one method of transferring and financing the risks associated with these products through the form of securitization. Securitization is becoming a popular and attractive alternative form of risk transfer of insurance liabilities. Here we demonstrate how to construct a securitization structure for reverse mortgages similar to the one applied in traditional insurance products.Specifically, we investigate the merits of developing survivor bonds and survivor swaps for reverse mortgage products. In the case of survivor bonds, for example, we are able to compute premiums, both analytically and numerically through simulations, and to examine how the longevity risk may be transferred to the financial investors. Our numerical calculations provide an indication of the economic benefits derived from developing survivor bonds to securitize the “longevity risk component” of reverse mortgage products. Moreover, some sensitivity analysis of these economic benefits indicates that these survivor bonds provide for a promising tool for investment diversification.

Interpreting Net Fiscal Incidence Calculations

This paper evaluates calculations of net fiscal incidence, using an applied general equilibrium model of Australia into which public goods are incorporated. Results indicate that it is inappropriate to regard the redistributive impacts of government policies as a zero sum game. For large reductions in public goods provision and taxes, the dominant effect is the foregone consumer surplus from suboptimal public goods provision. In addition, the redistributive pattern of small charges are quite different from large charges. Marginal and average net fiscal incidence, thus, need to be clearly separated, a point not emphasized in existing literature. Copyright 1987 by MIT Press.

Pensions, Ageing and Retirement in Australia: Long‐Term Projections and Policies

Australias retirement income provision system, comprising the ‘three pillars’ of a means‐tested aged pension, mandatory occupational superannuation and other, voluntary long‐term savings, is at the heart of understanding the fiscal implications of ageing. While the Intergenerational Report, an account of long‐term fiscal sustainability, is celebrating its tenth birthday since the first edition was published, the Superannuation Guarantee, first implemented in 1992, turns a sprightly 20 years old. This article considers the Intergenerational Report as a prism for studying fiscal, demographic and policy developments in the Australian retirement income system over the last decade and into the future.

Private Pensions in OECD Countries

As most other OECD Member countries had already done, Australia has, since 1991, supplemented an existing flat-rate universal (but means-tested) residence-based old-age pension by a compulsory earnings related second tier for employees known as the “Superannuation Guarantee”. However, it was the first Member country in which the favoured format of participation in the second tier is in the form of pure “money purchase” schemes in which benefits are determined solely by the amount which accumulates in individual accounts. Benefits are predominately paid as lump-sums on retirement, although tax arrangements are being changed to encourage beneficiaries to purchase annuities. This report, compiled by two Australian experts, describes this system and its relation to pre-existing tax-advantaged voluntary provision, which only covered one-third of employees but remains predominant in terms of assets accumulated and benefits payable. The report discusses the sources of retirement ... Comme la plupart des autres pays Membres de l’OCDE l’avaient fait avant elle, l’Australie a, depuis 1991, complete son regime de retraite universel a taux uniforme (mais lie a un niveau de ressources), par un second pilier d’epargne retraite obligatoire proportionnelle aux gains pour les salaries, appele systeme de garantie de retraite. Toutefois, c’est le seul pays a avoir privilegie, pour le deuxieme pilier d’epargne, les regimes a cotisations definies dans lesquels les prestations sont uniquement fonction des sommes accumulees sur les comptes des beneficiaires. Les prestations sont la plupart du temps servies sous la forme d’un capital verse integralement au moment du depart a la retraite, mais une reforme des dispositions fiscales visant a encourager les beneficiaires a opter pour le paiement d’une rente est en preparation. Ce rapport, redige par deux experts australiens, decrit ce systeme de garantie de retraite et ses liens avec le regime volontaire preexistant auquel etaient ...

Population Ageing and Social Security in Asia

Asian countries are at different stages of demographic transition. While Central and South Asian countries are relatively young and will remain so for some time, East and Southeast Asia are expected to age at an unprecedented rate in the next few decades. Japan has reached the future first. Other nations, such as China, are still young but ageing faster than many advanced economies, including Australia and the USA. This demographic shift has considerable implications for the development of social policy. Here too, countries differ widely. This paper sets the context for the rest of the volume. The focus is mostly on countries in East and Southeast Asia, but it includes contrasting comparisons to key regional countries such as India and Australia. First, the paper presents the context: the demographic, urbanization, and social trends facing Asia. Second, it tackles the allocation of resources for the elderly, in particular, by summarizing approaches to two areas of social policy most pertinent to population ageing: retirement income and health care.