John Quiggin

A theory of anticipated utility

Abstract A new theory of cardinal utility, with an associated set of axioms, is presented. It is a generalization of the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory, which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability.

Generalized expected utility theory : the rank-dependent model

1 Uncertainty.- 2 Background.- 3 EU Theory.- 4 The Challenge to EU Theory.- 5 Rank-Dependent Expected Utility - An Outline.- 6 Risk Aversion in RDEU Theory.- 7 Comparative Statics for RDEU Theory.- 8 Risk Seeking and Lottery Design.- 9 Some Normative Properties of RDEU.- 10 RDEU and Experimental Evidence.- 11 Axiomatic Approaches to RDEU.- 12 Generalized Smooth Utility and RDEU.- 13 Stochastic Dominance and Independence Rules.- 14 Extensions.- References.- Index of Names.- Topic Index.

Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost–benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption.

Environmental economics and the Murray–Darling river system

Much concern about the negative environmental consequences of agricultural development in Australia, including salinisation, waterlogging and algal blooms, has focused on the problems of the Murray–Darling Basin. The aim of this article is to provide an overview of the environmental problems of the Murray–Darling Basin from an economic perspective, and a selective survey of the relevant economic literature, including theoretical analysis, modelling and contributions to the development of water policy. In attempting to understand the complex problems of the Murray–Darling Basin, an eclectic approach drawing on externality, sustainability and property rights perspectives seems most appropriate.

Counting the cost of climate change at an agricultural level

The effects of global climate change on agriculture will be diverse and complex. Some important qualitative conclusions emerge from the literature. First, it is important to focus on the rate at which climate changes and the capacity of farmers to adjust, rather than on absolute changes in temperature. Second, given that significant warming is inevitable, it is important to focus on the marginal effects of feasible changes in the rate of warming, rather than on the aggregate rate of warming. With a convex damage function, the expected marginal cost of warming may be large even when aggregate damage, given the expected rate of warming, is close to zero. Third, uncertainty is crucial and remains poorly understood. In particular, modelling of low-probability catastrophic outcomes remains very limited. Finally, it seems likely that global climate change will enhance extremes of all kinds.

Regret theory with general choice sets

The regret theory of choice under uncertainty proposed by Loomes and Sugden has performed well in explaining and predicting violations of Expected Utility theory. The original version of the model was confined to pairwise choices, which limited its usefulness as an economic theory of choice. Axioms for a more general form of regret theory have been proposed by Loomes and Sugden. In this article, it is shown that a simple nonmanipulability requirement is sufficient to characterize the functional form for regret theory with general choice sets. The stochastic dominance and comparative static properties of the model are outlined. A number of special cases are derived in which regret theory is equivalent to other well-known theories of choice under uncertainty.

On the Optimal Design of Lotteries

In recent years, the expected utility model of choice under risk has been generalized to cope with phenomena such as probability weighting. In the present paper, one such generalized approach, the rank-dependent expected utility model, is applied to the problem of lottery gambling. The model is used to derive an optimal prize structure for lotteries, ivolving a few large prizes and a large number of small prizes. Other forms of gambling, such as racetrack betting, are discussed in the light of this result. Copyright 1991 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

Comparative statics for rank-dependent expected utility theory

Recently, a number of generalizations of the expected utility (EU) model have been proposed. In order to make such generalizations useful, it is necessary that they should yield sharp comparative static results, like those obtained using EU theory. In this article, rank dependent expected utility (RDEU) theory, a generalization of EU theory based on the concept of probability weighting, is examined. A number of methods of extending results from EU to RDEU are considered. It is shown that a major class of comparative static results can be extended to the RDEU model, but not to the case of general smooth preferences. This is because RDEU maintains the separation between probabilities and utilities that is abandoned in the general case.

Uncertainty and climate change policy

The paper consists of a summary of the main sources of uncertainty about climate change, and a discussion of the major implications for economic analysis and the formulation of climate policy. Uncertainty typically implies that the optimal policy is more risk-averse than otherwise, and therefore enhances the case for action to mitigate climate change.

Human Capital Theory and Education Policy in Australia

The human capital model is the basis of neoclassical analysis of labour markets, education and economic growth. However, education policy in Australia has been influenced by models based on screening theory and public choice theory which yield the policy implication that reductions in education spending are generally desirable. In this paper, the competing models, and the evidence supporting them, are surveyed. It is concluded that the human capital model is strongly supported by the available evidence. The predictions of screening models are generally not supported by empirical tests, except where they coincide with those of the human capital model. The main evidence supporting the public choice model, derived from the literature on educational production functions is shown to be deficient. The principal policy conclusion of the paper is that the negative effects of recent cuts in education spending will outweigh any benefits achieved through reductions in public debt.