John Rooney

The Predictive Accuracy of Shoreline Change Rate Methods and Alongshore Beach Variation on Maui, Hawaii

Abstract Beach erosion has direct consequences for Hawaiis tourist-based economy, which depends on the attraction of beautiful sandy beaches. Within the last century, however, beaches on Oahu and Maui have been narrowed or completely lost, threatening tourism and construction development. In order for the counties and state of Hawaii to implement coastal regulations to prevent infrastructure damage, it is necessary to find a statistically valid methodology that accurately delineates annual erosion hazard rates specific to Hawaii. We compare the following erosion rate methods: end point rate (EPR), average of rates (AOR), minimum description length (MDL), jackknifing (JK), ordinary least squares (OLS), reweighted least squares (RLS), weighted least squares (WLS), reweighted weighted least squares (RWLS), least absolute deviation (LAD), and weighted least absolute deviation (WLAD). To evaluate these statistical methods, this study determines the predictive accuracy of various calculated erosion rates, including the effects of a priori knowledge of storms, using (1) temporally truncated data to forecast and hindcast known shorelines and (2) synthetic beach time series that contain noise. This study also introduces binning of adjacent transects to identify segments of a beach that have erosion rates that are indistinguishable. If major uncertainties of the shoreline methodology and storm shorelines are known, WLS, RWLS, and WLAD better reflect the data; if storm shorelines are not known, RWLS and WLAD are preferred. If both uncertainties and storm shorelines are not known, RLS and LAD are preferred; if storm shorelines are known, OLS, RLS, JK, and LAD are recommended. MDL and AOR produce the most variable results. Hindcasting results show that early twentieth century topographic surveys are valuable in change rate analyses. Binning adjacent transects improves the signal-to-noise ratio by increasing the number of data points.

Geology and Geomorphology of Coral Reefs in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) comprise a portion of the middle of the 6,126 km long Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain , considered to be the longest mountain chain in the world Grigg (1983) (Fig. 13.1). Located in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean, the Hawaiian Islands have been referred to as the most geographically isolated archipelago in the world. The islands are ~3,800 km from the nearest continental landmass, the west coast of North America. The nearest other island, Johnston Atoll, is located almost 900 km southwest of the NWHI. A distance of 1,500 km separates the island of Hawai’i at the southern end of the archipelago from the next nearest island, Kingman Reef in the Line Islands . Kure Atoll at the northwestern end of the Hawaiian Islands is the closest point in the archipelago to the northernmost of the Marshall Islands, 2,000 km to the southwest. Because of their physical isolation and low levels of marine biodiversity, Hawaiian reefs feature high levels of endemism . Approximately a quarter of the species present are found nowhere else, and the Hawaiian Archipelago has approximately twice as many endemic coral species as any other area its size in the world (Fenner 2005). This unique area is home to over 7,000 marine species (Hawai’i DLNR 2000), the critically endangered Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi, Fig. 13.2), and provides nesting grounds for 14 million seabirds and 90% of Hawai’i’s threatened green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) (NWHI MNM 2006). Reefs in the NWHI are dominated by top predators such as sharks and jacks, which make up more than half of the overall fish biomass (Fig. 13.3). In contrast, top predators in the heavily fished main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) make up approximately 3% of the overall fish biomass, which is more typical of coral reefs worldwide (Friedlander and Demartini 2002; Maragos and Gulko 2002). Although resources in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands have been exploited by humans since their discovery by ancient Polynesians, their isolation has afforded some protection and helped preserve their coral reef ecosystems. Additionally, most of the atolls and reefs of the NWHI have been afforded some level of environmental protection for almost a century. As a result, the NWHI are the only large-scale coral reef ecosystem on the planet that is mostly intact, a marine wilderness that provides us with insights on what other coral reefs may have been like prior to human exploitation (Fenner 2005).

Identifying Suitable Locations for Mesophotic Hard Corals Offshore of Maui, Hawai‘i

Mesophotic hard corals (MHC) are increasingly threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors, including impacts from fishing, land-based sources of pollution, and ocean acidification. However, little is known about their geographic distributions (particularly around the Pacific islands) because it is logistically challenging and expensive to gather data in the 30 to 150 meter depth range where these organisms typically live. The goal of this study was to begin to fill this knowledge gap by modelling and predicting the spatial distribution of three genera of mesophotic hard corals offshore of Maui in the Main Hawaiian Islands. Maximum Entropy modeling software was used to create separate maps of predicted probability of occurrence and uncertainty for: (1) Leptoseris, (2) Montipora, and (3) Porites. Genera prevalence was derived from the in situ presence/absence data, and used to convert relative habitat suitability to probability of occurrence values. Approximately 1,300 georeferenced records of the occurrence of MHC, and 34 environmental predictors were used to train the model ensembles. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) values were between 0.89 and 0.97, indicating excellent overall model performance. Mean uncertainty and mean absolute error for the spatial predictions ranged from 0.006% to 0.05% and 3.73% to 17.6%, respectively. Depth, distance from shore, euphotic depth (mean and standard deviation) and sea surface temperature (mean and standard deviation) were identified as the six most influential predictor variables for partitioning habitats among the three genera. MHC were concentrated between Hanaka‘ō‘ō and Papawai Points offshore of western Maui most likely because this area hosts warmer, clearer and calmer water conditions almost year round. While these predictions helped to fill some knowledge gaps offshore of Maui, many information gaps remain in the Hawaiian Archipelago and Pacific Islands. This approach may be used to identify other potentially suitable areas for MHCs, helping scientists and resource managers prioritize sites, and focus their limited resources on areas that may be of higher scientific or conservation value.

Ecosystem monitoring for ecosystem‐based management: using a polycentric approach to balance information trade‐offs

Ecosystem monitoring for ecosystem-based management: using a polycentric approach to balance information trade-offs Adel Heenan*, Kelvin Gorospe, Ivor Williams, Arielle Levine, Paulo Maurin, Marc Nadon, Thomas Oliver, John Rooney, Molly Timmers, Supin Wongbusarakum and Russell Brainard Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai’i, M anoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA; NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Honolulu, HI 96818, USA; Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA; and NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program (The Baldwin Group Inc.), Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Comparison of Reef Fish Survey Data Gathered by Open and Closed Circuit SCUBA Divers Reveals Differences in Areas With Higher Fishing Pressure.

Visual survey by divers using open-circuit (OC) SCUBA is the most widely used approach to survey coral reef fishes. Therefore, it is important to quantify sources of bias in OC surveys, such as the possibility that avoidance of OC divers by fishes can lead to undercounting in areas where targeted species have come to associate divers with a risk of being speared. One potential way to reduce diver avoidance is to utilize closed circuit rebreathers (CCRs), which do not produce the noise and bubbles that are a major source of disturbance associated with OC diving. For this study, we conducted 66 paired OC and CCR fish surveys in the Main Hawaiian Islands at locations with relatively high, moderate, and light fishing pressure. We found no significant differences in biomass estimates between OC and CCR surveys when data were pooled across all sites, however there were differences at the most heavily fished location, Oahu. There, biomass estimates from OC divers were significantly lower for several targeted fish groups, including surgeonfishes, targeted wrasses, and snappers, as well as for all targeted fishes combined, with mean OC biomass between 32 and 68% of mean CCR biomass. There were no clear differences between OC and CCR biomass estimates for these groups at sites with moderate or low fishing pressure, or at any location for other targeted fish groups, including groupers, parrotfishes, and goatfishes. Bias associated with avoidance of OC divers at heavily fished locations could be substantially reduced, or at least calibrated for, by utilization of CCR. In addition to being affected by fishing pressure, the extent to which avoidance of OC divers is problematic for visual surveys varies greatly among taxa, and is likely to be highly influenced by the survey methodology and dimensions used.

Developing the SeaBED AUV as a tool for conducting routine surveys of fish and their habitat in the Pacific

The Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC) and the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC) are collaborating with researchers at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) to develop the SeaBED autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) to overcome the challenges in surveying fish in inaccessible habitats. Traditional survey techniques such as bottom trawls are of limited applicability in such areas due to the rocky, rugose terrain. Fish in marine protected areas must also be surveyed using non-lethal methods. Furthermore, monitoring deeper coral reefs are difficult since many important habitats are below depths that can be surveyed by divers. Hover-capable bottom-tracking AUVs offer a unique tool that is appropriate for work in such areas. We present preliminary results from two surveys: one of deep water corals on a mesophotic coral reef near Guam and another of demersal fishes on rocky reefs off southern California. We discuss some developments needed to utilize this tool for future routine surveys and assessments.

Activation of Nrf2 in the liver is associated with stress resistance mediated by suppression of the growth hormone-regulated STAT5b transcription factor

The transcription factor Nrf2 (encoded by Nfe2l2) induces expression of numerous detoxifying and antioxidant genes in response to oxidative stress. The cytoplasmic protein Keap1 interacts with and represses Nrf2 function. Computational approaches were developed to identify factors that modulate Nrf2 in a mouse liver gene expression compendium. Forty-eight Nrf2 biomarker genes were identified using profiles from the livers of mice in which Nrf2 was activated genetically in Keap1-null mice or chemically by a potent activator of Nrf2 signaling. The rank-based Running Fisher statistical test was used to determine the correlation between the Nrf2 biomarker genes and a test set of 81 profiles with known Nrf2 activation status demonstrating a balanced accuracy of 96%. For a large number of factors examined in the compendium, we found consistent relationships between activation of Nrf2 and feminization of the liver transcriptome through suppression of the male-specific growth hormone (GH)-regulated transcription factor STAT5b. The livers of female mice exhibited higher Nrf2 activation than male mice in untreated or chemical-treated conditions. In male mice, Nrf2 was activated by treatment with ethinyl estradiol, whereas in female mice, Nrf2 was suppressed by treatment with testosterone. Nrf2 was activated in 5 models of disrupted GH signaling containing mutations in Pit1, Prop1, Ghrh, Ghrhr, and Ghr. Out of 59 chemical treatments that activated Nrf2, 36 exhibited STAT5b suppression in the male liver. The Nrf2-STAT5b coupling was absent in in vitro comparisons of chemical treatments. Treatment of male and female mice with 11 chemicals that induce oxidative stress led to activation of Nrf2 to greater extents in females than males. The enhanced basal and inducible levels of Nrf2 activation in females relative to males provides a molecular explanation for the greater resistance often seen in females vs. males to age-dependent diseases and chemical-induced toxicity.