John S. Carroll

The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic ☆

Previous studies have indicated that explaining a hypothetical event makes the event seem more likely through the creation of causal connections. However, such effects could arise through the use of the availability heuristic; that is, subjective likelihood is increased by an event becoming easier to imagine. Two experiments were designed to demonstrate this principle. In Experiment 1, subjects asked to imagine Jimmy Carter winning the presidential election (prior to the election) predicted that he was more likely to win than subjects asked to imagine Gerald Ford winning. In Experiment 2, subjects asked to imagine a good college football season for the previous championship team were more likely to predict a major bowl bid than subjects asked to imagine a bad season, although the effect did not appear in predictions of the season record. In both studies, subjects who were also asked to explain the imaginary event were no different from subjects who only imagined. Several other attributional distortions are interpreted in terms of the availability heuristic.

Exploring predecisional behavior: An alternative approach to decision research☆

Abstract A trend in the study of decision behavior is the increased emphasis being placed on understanding the psychological processes underlying observed judgments or choices. Unfortunately, the input-output analyses that have been used by most decision researchers do not appear fully adequate to develop and test process models of decision behavior. It is argued that data collection methods are needed that will yield data on predecisional behavior in order to identify what information a decision maker has and how it is being processed. Two such process tracing methods, verbal protocol analysis and the analysis of information acquisition behavior, which should be especially valuable in decision research are illustrated and discussed. The process tracing approach appears to be a valuable complement to more traditional model fitting approaches to the study of decision behavior. The value of a multimethod approach is also illustrated and discussed.

Moving Beyond Normal Accidents and High Reliability Organizations: A Systems Approach to Safety in Complex Systems

In this century society faces increasingly large-scale accidents and risks emerging from our own wondrous technologies. Two prominent organizational approaches to safety, Normal Accident Theory and High Reliability Organizations, have focused attention on a variety of industries that deal with hazardous situations, developed concepts to explicate organizational structure and culture, and debated whether accidents are inevitable in complex systems. We outline these approaches and identify some limitations, including narrow definitions, ambiguity about key concepts, confusion of reliability and safety, and overly pessimistic or optimistic conclusions. We believe that the debate between NAT and HRO can become a more productive three-way conversation by including a systems approach to safety emerging from engineering disciplines. The more comprehensive systems approach clarifies the strengths and weaknesses of NAT and HRO and offers a more powerful repertoire of analytic tools and intervention strategies to manage and control post modern risk in complex, high-tech, systems with their potential for catastrophic disruptions and losses.

Pretrial publicity, judicial remedies, and jury bias

Although past research has established pretrial publicitys potential to bias juror judgment, there has been less attention given to the effectiveness of judicial remedies for combatting such biases. The present study examined the effectiveness of three remedies (judicial instructions, deliberation, and continuance) in combatting the negative impact of different types of pretrial publicity. Two different types of pretrial publicity were examined: (a) factual publicity (which contained incriminating information about the defendant) and (b) emotional publicity (which contained no explicitly incriminating information, but did contain information likely to arouse negative emotions). Neither instructions nor deliberation reduced the impact of either form of publicity; in fact, deliberation strengthened publicity biases. Both social decision scheme analysis and a content analysis of deliberation suggested that prejudicial publicity increases the persuasiveness and/or lessens the persuasibility of advocates of conviction relative to advocates of acquittal. Acontinuance of several days between exposure to the publicity and viewing the trial served as an effective remedy for the factual publicity, but not for the emotional publicity. The article concludes by discussing the potential roles of affect and memory in juror judgment and evaluating the available remedies for pretrial publicity.

Crisis resource management training for an anaesthesia faculty: a new approach to continuing education

Background  Human error and system failures continue to play a substantial role in adverse outcomes in health care. Anaesthesia crisis resource management addresses many patient safety issues by teaching behavioural skills for critical events but it has not been systematically utilized to teach experienced faculty.

An evaluation of learning in the bilateral winner's curse

Abstract Recent research on bilateral bargaining behavior under uncertainty has found that, under asymmetric information, negotiators develop inferior bidding strategies because they fail to incorporate valuable information about the decisions of their opponents. This results in negative profits, or the “winners curse.” The present study provided subjects multiple opportunities for feedback as well as experience in both negotiation roles. Neither learning opportunity eliminates the winners curse.

A Method for Measuring the Effectiveness of Simulation- Based Team Training for Improving Communication Skills

Team behavior and coordination, particularly communication or team information-sharing, are critical for optimizing team performance; research in medicine generally provides no accepted method for measurement of team information-sharing. In a controlled simulator setting, we developed a technique for placing clinical information (probes) with members of a team of trainees participating in a 1-day Anesthesia Crisis Resource Management course and later tested the teams for knowledge of the probes as an indicator of overall team information-sharing. Despite the low level of team information-sharing, we demonstrated construct validity of the probe methodology by the correlation of measured change in team information-sharing from beginning to end of training with self-rated change. There was no statistical difference in “group sharing” from beginning to end of training, despite trainees’ survey responses that the course would be useful for their education and practice.

Evaluation, diagnosis, and prediction in parole decision making.

Discretionary legal decisions have become a recent focus of theory development and policy-oriented applied research. We investigated parole release decision making in Pennsylvania from both orientations. Analyses of post-hearing questionnaires and case files from 1,035 actual parole decisions revealed that the Parole Board considers institutional behavior and predictions of future risk and rehabilitation in the decision to release on parole. Predictions seem also to be based on diagnostic judgments identifying causes of crime such as personal dispositions, drugs, alcohol, money, and environment. A one-year follow-up of 838 released parolees showed that predictions were virtually unrelated to known post-release outcomes. An actuarial prediction device was developed that is more predictive than subjective judgments. The use of decision guidelines to structure discretion is discussed, as well as the utilization of our research in guideline development by Pennsylvania.

Learning from experience in high-hazard organizations

Abstract Learning from experience, the cyclical interplay of thinking and doing, is increasingly important as organizations struggle to cope with rapidly changing environments and more complex and interdependent sets of knowledge. This paper confronts two central issues for organizational learning: 1. (1) how is local learning (by individuals or small groups) integrated into collective learning by organizations? and 2. (2) what are the differences between learning practices that focus on control, elimination of surprises, and single-loop incremental “fixing” of problems with those that focus on deep or radical learning, double-loop challenging of assumptions, and discovery of new opportunities? We articulate these relationships through an analysis of learning practices in high-hazard organizations, specifically, problem investigation teams that examine the most serious and troubling events and trends in nuclear power plants and chemical plants. Our analysis suggests a four-stage model of organizational learning reflecting different approaches to control and learning.

Redirecting traditional professional values to support safety: changing organisational culture in health care

Professionals in healthcare organisations who seek to enhance safety and quality in an increasingly demanding industry environment often identify culture as a barrier to change. The cultural focus on individual autonomy, for example, seems to conflict with desired norms of teamwork, problem reporting, and learning. We offer a definition and explication of why culture is important to change efforts. A cultural analysis of health care suggests professional values that can be redirected to support change. We offer examples of organisations that drew upon cultural strengths to create new ways of working and gradually shifted the culture.