John Shortreed

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks.

Air Pollution and Public Health: A Guidance Document for Risk Managers

This guidance document is a reference for air quality policymakers and managers providing state-of-the-art, evidence-based information on key determinants of air quality management decisions. The document reflects the findings of five annual meetings of the NERAM (Network for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management) International Colloquium Series on Air Quality Management (2001–2006), as well as the results of supporting international research. The topics covered in the guidance document reflect critical science and policy aspects of air quality risk management including i) health effects, ii) air quality emissions, measurement and modeling, iii) air quality management interventions, and iv) clean air policy challenges and opportunities.

Investment planning of a road link

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to determine the optimal investments of an existing road link over time. The problem is formulated in terms of optimal control and solved by Pontryagins maximum principle. Three state variables of the road are considered: the smoothness of the road pavement surface, the volume of traffic, and the capacity. The control variables are: investment in smoothness and in capacity. Optimality is considered to be that investment programme for smoothness and capacity which maximizes the integral of net benefits over a finite or infinite time horizon. The time path of the investment in smoothness is uniquely determined by a saddle point solution. There are three possible solutions for the investment in capacity. Either the road will be widened at the initial time of the system, or at a later point in time, or never. This depends on the time path of the shadow price of capacity relative to the constant marginal cost to invest in capacity. Finally, a budget constraint to the Ministry of Transport is imposed. As a result, the pattern of the time paths does not change in general.

Enhancements and updates to the riskmod risk analysis model

Abstract The computer model RISKMOD was developed to provide assistance in the evaluation of policies for the movement of dangerous goods, by estimating objective risk. The model represents individual vehicle shipments of dangerous goods on the truck and rail networks for which the associated risks are estimated in a series of steps. The first step involves an accident rate prediction, followed by a spill rate prediction, given an accident. In subsequent steps, the damages are evaluated of an accident alone, and of an accident followed by a spill of goods. The final tables provide link by link risk estimates and a summary of the total risk for the entire route. A novel feature of the RISKMOD model is the valuation of consequences, which provides a common denominator in terms of expressing risk, so that all risks may be summed on a route. This paper describes recent modifications to the model which have been made, based on new data. Specifically, the risk associated with the mechanical aspects of an accident are included separately from the risk due to the release of the dangerous cargo. In addition, more detailed truck release data have been included to better reflect the range of consequences which follow a release event. Both modifications assist in providing a more accurate and representative account of the risks associated with transporting dangerous goods.

Development of a Health Effects-Based Priority Ranking System for Air Emissions Reductions From Oil Refineries in Canada

In Canada, the Canadian Council of Ministers for the Environment (CCME) is currently engaged in a process to determine how best to reduce air emissions from oil refineries. The National Framework for Petroleum Refineries Emissions Reduction (NFPRER) is being developed with the input of stakeholders, including nongovernment organizations (NGOs), industry, and regulatory jurisdictions. One component of this framework is the development of a tool to prioritize emissions for reduction based on estimated health impacts. HEIDI II (Health Effects Indicators Decision Index II) is a spreadsheet-based model that prioritizes a series of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic air toxicicants and criteria air contaminants commonly emitted from Canadian oil refineries. A generic meteorological dispersion model was applied to reported annual emissions data for each of Canadas 20 refineries. Photodegradation rates and ambient levels of each substance were accounted for, and air concentrations were calculated for 20 geographic zones around each refinery. These were coupled to toxicity data derived mainly from Health Canada and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and applied to target populations of children, adults and seniors. HEIDI II predicts incidence of relevant disease endpoints from each substance emitted, except for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), which were treated as chemical mixtures. Rankings were based on predicted case incidence or the application of a common health impact metric, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), to the predicted incidence. Using the DALY approach, priority rankings can be made within each of the chemical classes, or across all three classes together. HEIDI II incorporates several switches that allow the user to investigate alternate scenarios based on stack height, average daily sunlight hours (for calculating photodegradation), and the possibility of emissions below regulatory reporting thresholds.

Risk assessment and legislation

Abstract The use of risk analysis and risk assessment in the legislative process is a recent phenomenon. Both risk assessment and the legislative process are uncertain, seemingly irrational, unpredictable and generally to be avoided. The use of risk analysis has been found useful in improving the management of risk in society and in particular Improving the framework for discussion and decision-making. The paper reviews the characteristics of both risk and legislation and provides some guidelines for incorporating risk assessment in an efficient and effective way.

OPTIMUM SIZING OF AIRPORT TERMINAL FACILITIES

Abstract This paper reports on the development of an algorithm for computing the minimum amount of space required for an airport terminal. Current practice of computing space requirements relies heavily on “peak-hour” forecasts. These forecasts are suspect because they fail to show the variations which occur within a peak hour, especially now with the use of wide-body jets. To overcome this deficiency an algorithm was devised which takes as input an airline schedule and produces the minimum amount of space required. Since no formal mathematical technique could be found to solve this large combinatorial problem, the algorithm was based on heuristic programming. It allocates loads from flights to facilities in such a manner that the sum of the areas of the facilities is a minimum.

Risk assessment and management

The scientific study of risk, the potential realization of undesirable consequences from hazards ari…

Truck safety issues and recommendations: results of the Conference on Truck Safety: Perceptions and Reality

This note describes the major findings and recommendations of the Conference on Truck Safety: Perceptions and Reality, held in Toronto from September 11 to 13, 1995. The Conference adopted a consensus-based, multi-stakeholder approach to identify key issues affecting truck safety and develop recommendations as to how these issues should be resolved.

TRANSPORT IMPACTS OF CHANGING HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE

Extensive time series transport and land use data for Montreal are available for 1970, 1974 and 1978. A log-linear model was used to model household structure over time in order to isolate the effects of household structure on transit ridership from other effects which included new subway lines. The data were also used to test the performance of the log-linear model in forecasting household structure for future time periods. The changes in transit ridership in Montreal from 1970 to 1978 were due both to changes in household structure and to changes in transit trip making because of improved levels of transit service. The log-linear formulation was very useful in decoupling these effects.