John Ssozi

Sino-African Relations: Some Solutions and Strategies to the Policy Syndromes

We survey about 110 recently published studies on Sino-African relations; put some structure on the documented issues before suggesting some solutions and strategies to the identified policy syndromes. The documented issues classified into eight main strands include, China: targeting nations with abundant natural resources; focusing on countries with bad governance; not hiring local workers; outbidding other countries by flouting environmental and social standards; importing workers that do not integrate into domestic society and living in extremely simple conditions; exhibiting low linkages between her operations and local businesses; exporting low quality products to Africa; and the emergence of China hindering Africa’s development.

The Effects of Remittances on Output Per Worker in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Production Function Approach

This paper uses a production function to examine the channels through which remittances affect output per worker in 31 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1980-2010. We find that remittances directly increase output per worker if complemented with education. The indirect effects vary with the economic characteristics of the recipient nations: while remittances have increased human capital among the low-income nations, among the upper-middle-income nations, they have mostly increased total factor productivity, but are still inversely related to factor inputs among the lower-middle-income nations of SSA. Finally, remittances are more effective when institutional risk is reducing.

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Proposed East African Monetary Union: An Unobserved Component Approach

This paper uses the business cycle synchronization criteria of the theory of optimum currency area (OCA) to examine the feasibility of the East African Community (EAC) as a monetary union. We also investigate whether the degree of business cycle synchronization has increased after the 1999 EAC Treaty. We use an unobserved component model to measure business cycle synchronization as the proportion of structural shocks that are common across different countries, and a time-varying parameter model to examine the dynamics of synchronization over time. We find that although the degree of synchronization has increased since 2000 when the EAC Treaty came into force, the proportion of shocks that is common across different countries is still small implying weak synchronization. This evidence casts doubt on the feasibility of a monetary union for the EAC as scheduled by 2012.

Inflation convergence and currency unions: the case of the East African community

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate inflation convergence within the East African Community (EAC) as it aspires to become a currency union. Design/methodology/approach - An unobserved dynamic factor model was used to decompose the variation in inflation into a component that is common across the countries in the EAC region and a component that is country specific. Convergence was measured by the percentage of variation in inflation that is common across countries. Findings - The estimated results from the dynamic factor model for the pre-EAC Treaty (1981:3 to 2000:2) period and post-EAC Treaty (2000:3 to 2009:1) period suggest that the percentage variation in inflation in the EAC that is explained by the common regional component increased significantly during the post-Treaty period. Research limitations/implications - One of the limitations of this paper is that it does not address the mechanism through which the convergence in a currency union is achieved. Future research should try to examine the link between convergence and different macroeconomic policies. Practical implications - This paper suggests that the push towards forming a currency union in East Africa has led to a greater degree of inflation synchronization across different countries in the region. Originality/value - The main contribution of this paper is to use an unobserved component model to estimate the degree of inflation synchronization in East African countries.

The Comparative Economics of Catch-Up in Output per worker, total factor productivity and technological gain in Sub-Saharan Africa

After investigating the effect of external financial flows on total factor productivity and technological gain, we use the beta catch-up and sigma convergence to compare dispersions in output per worker, total factor productivity and technological gain in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the years 1980-2010. The comparative evidence is articulated with income levels, years of schooling, and health factors. We find; first, a positive association between foreign direct investment, trade openness, foreign aid, remittances and total factor productivity. However, when foreign direct investment is interacted with schooling, it is direct effect becomes negative on total factor productivity. Second, beta catch-up is between19.22% and 19.70% per annum with corresponding time to full catch-up of 25.38 years and 26.01 years respectively. Third, we find sigma-convergence among low-income nations and upper-middle income nations separately, but not for the entire sample together. Fourth, schooling in SSA is not yet a significant source of technology, but it can make external financial inflows more effective. Policies to induce external financial flows are not enough for development if absorptive capacity is low. More policy implications are discussed.

When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence

Building on previous literature, we assess when foreign aid is effective in fighting terrorism using quantile regressions on a panel of 78 developing countries for the period 1984-2008. Bilteral, multilateral and total aid indicators are used whereas terrorism includes: domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism dynamics. We consistently establish that foreign aid (bilateral, multilateral and total) is effective at fighting terrorism exclusively in countries where existing levels of transnational terrorism are highest. This finding is consistent with our theoretical underpinnings because donors have been documented to allocate more aid towards fighting transnational terrorist activities in recipient countries because they are more likely to target their interests. Moreover, the propensity of donor interest at stake is likely to increase with initial levels of transnational terrorism, such that the effect of foreign aid is most significant in recipient countries with the highest levels of transnational terrorism. Policy implications and future research directions are discussed.