John Toye

The Origins and Interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis

The Prebisch-Singer thesis is generally taken to be the proposition that the net barter terms of trade between primary products (raw materials) and manufactures have been subject to a long-run downward trend. The publication dates of the first two works in English that expounded the thesis were nearly simultaneous. In May 1950, the English version of The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems, by Raul Prebisch, appeared under the UN’s imprint. In the same month Hans Singer published an article, “The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries,” in the American Economic Review. The continuing significance of the “Prebisch-Singer thesis” is that it implies that, barring major changes in the structure of the world economy, the gains from trade will continue to be distributed unequally (and, some would add, unfairly) between nations exporting mainly primary products and those exporting mainly manufactures. Further, inequality of per capita income between these two types of countries will

Assessing the G77: 50 years after unctad and 40 years after the nieo

This article views the history of the Group of 77 through the lens of its relations with unctad’s establishment in 1964, its unsuccessful struggle for the nieo in the 1970s, and the subsequent loosening of ties. The debt crisis of the 1980s, the Uruguay Round negotiations, and the arrival of the wto are seen as crucial forces unravelling the previously close links. Growing differentiation among developing countries and the changing leadership of the G77 are also cited as important influences on its current relationship with unctad.

How the UN moved from full employment to economic development

Abstract Economic development was a topic of small consequence to the United Nations (UN) in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. Yet by the late 1950s it had become one of the UNs over-arching purposes in its economic and social work. The reasons for this considerable (and to date permanent) change have not attracted much attention, because it is now assumed that economic development is the natural goal of UN economic efforts. This article offers an explanation of how this came about. Since the days of the League of Nations, international economic cooperation had centred on charting the spread of recession from one industrial country to another, and proposing counter-measures. Keynesian macroeconomics transformed this discourse, but at the same time opened up political divisions between the United States and the economically shattered nations of Western Europe. In the context of the Cold War, Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld actively guided the UN away from economic policies of ‘extreme Keynesianism’ and towards issues of ‘economic development’. Development was an idea that not only united the US and its allies, but also appealed to the former colonies then swelling the UNs ranks.

Herbert Frankel: From Colonial Economics to Development Economics

Herbert Frankel (1903–96) was an economist of long and varied achievement, who, after a distinguished career in South Africa, served as Oxford Universitys first Professor of Colonial Economic Affairs (later Professor of the Economics of Under-developed Countries) from 1946 to 1971. His professional route took him from colonial economics to development economics, making a significant contribution to each. His intellectual trajectory took him from being a critic of colonial economic policies to being a champion of the efficacy of free market liberalism to deliver development. In this he was a true precursor of the counter-revolution in development economics of the 1980s. In a number of ways his writings were prophetic, but it was a younger colleague, Peter Bauer, who became the main standard-bearer of neo-liberalism in development economics.

What I Learned from the JDS

Abstract This article gives an account of what the author learned during four decades of his professional association with The Journal of Development Studies. The lessons learned include the subjects of entrepreneurship, book reviewing, editing, survival skills and succession planning.

From New Era to Neo-liberalism: US Strategy on Trade, Finance and Development in the United Nations, 1964–82

Abstract This article charts the history of the US strategy and This article charts the history of the US strategy and tactics on issues of trade, finance and development in the UN from 1964 to 1982, to explain how initial diplomatic defeats in the Kennedy and Johnson eras had been neutralised by the 1980s. Many saw the birth of UNCTAD as the start of a new era in international cooperation in the field of trade and development. For the US, however, it was a set-back to its traditional trade policy, sustained because of fears of Soviet expansion in the Third World and the uncooperativeness of de Gaulles France. When the oil price crisis put the US under greater immediate pressure, the Nixon and Ford administrations responded more robustly. Yet it was not their more aggressive responses that saved the US. Rather, it was disunity within Third World ranks, and the economic circumstances that made debtors of many formerly militant developing countries.

From Multilateralism to Modernisation: US Strategy on Trade, Finance and Development in the United Nations, 1945–63

Abstract In the fist two decades of the UNs existence, the US strategy for managing the Organisation on issues of trade, finance and development underwent two major reversals. After deliberately nesting the new international economic institutions inside the UN, the US had moved to a defensive strategy on economic issues in the UN by the mid-1950s. One cause was the outbreak of the Cold War and the fear of ‘subversives’ in the UN. Another reason was that US pressure for European decolonisation, combined with UN multilateral procedures, empowered underdeveloped countries that contested the norm of non-discrimination in trade. As the number of developing countries in the UN grew, however, the US changed strategy once again. President Kennedy took a series of new initiatives for economic development in the UN—the World Food Programme (WFP) and the UN Decade of Development. Justified in terms of Rostows modernisation paradigm, Kennedys revival of US leadership on development finance in the UN retained a strong anti-communist motivation and remained basically defensive in character.

Valpy FitzGerald: radical macroeconomist of development

Abstract This article traces the education and career trajectory of Valpy FitzGerald, from his upbringing within the culturally distinguished Knox family, his education at Oxford and Cambridge and his career as a radical macroeconomist of development at Cambridge, The Hague and the Oxford Department of Development (ODID). It highlights his work with the Sandinista revolution in Nicaragua, his advisory role with the British Labour Government after 1997 and his contributions to the reform of ODID.