John West

Fixing Asia’s Flawed Politics

This chapter reviews democracy and governance in Asia. Contrary to the hopes of political scientists, economic development has fostered too few democracies in Asia. Asia’s political landscape is deeply flawed with oligarchic democracies in Japan and Korea; pro-business soft dictatorships in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore; Chinese client states in Cambodia and Laos; weak and fragile democracies in India, Indonesia, Philippines, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal; military-dominated governments in Thailand, Pakistan and Myanmar; and staunchly authoritarian states in China, North Korea and Vietnam. It is argued that Asia will never have decent middle-class societies and innovative economies without democracy. President Trump has made it clear that promotion of democracy and human rights is not a priority of his administration.

What Next for the Asian Century

This chapter assesses the prospects for Asia overcoming stunted economic and social development, and realizing an Asian Century with advanced economies and middle-class societies. This will depend on how Asia responds to the seven challenges identified in this book. Trump’s America will result in a deterioration in key factors that have driven Asia development—an open US market, a relatively benign security environment and a stable global economic system.

Making the Most of Urbanization’s Potential

This chapter argues that the movement of Asians from the countryside to cities (urbanization), and from low-productivity jobs in the rural sector to higher-productivity jobs in factories for global value chains (GVCs) and the service sector, has also been a key driver of Asia’s economic development. However, evidence is presented showing that Asia’s model of urbanization is flawed. In China, migrants from rural areas are denied access to social services. Many Asians leave rural poverty only to live in urban slums, while most of Asia’s cities are environmental disasters. President Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement will only exacerbate the vulnerability of Asian cities to the impact of global warming. In Asia’s advanced countries, very few cities offer an “ecosystem” which fosters innovation-driven development.

Asia’s Stunted Economic Development

This chapter analyzes Asia’s stunning economic growth over the past half century or more. Despite the hype of Asia’s economic miracle, it argues that the harsh reality is that Asia is suffering from stunted economic development. No major Asian economy has caught up with global leaders like the US and Germany in terms of GDP per capita and living standards. Why? Apart from Hong Kong and Singapore, none could be considered open market economies. Size does matter, however. Countries like China, India and Indonesia, thanks to enormous populations, have some of the world’s biggest economies, and have become economic and political powers.

Asia’s Mythical Middle-Class Society

The hype about Asia’s dramatic economic rise has only been matched by similar hype about the emergence of Asia’s middle class. Evidence is presented to demonstrate that while Asian lives have improved immeasurably, only a small share of Asian citizens could be described as middle class. Today, half of Asia’s population is stranded between poverty and the middle class, living in a zone of vulnerability and precarity, based on their income and consumption possibilities. Factors other than raw money are also holding Asians back from joining the middle class: the vulnerability of informal/non-regular employment; deprivations like lack of clean drinking water, inadequate health facilities and sanitation; natural disasters; poor access to education and the Internet; and Asia’s appalling human rights.

Combating Asia’s Economic Crime

One of the many consequences of Asia’s flawed politics is that, as Asia has moved toward the center of the global economy, it has also moved to the center of the global criminal economy. Evidence is presented on Asia’s role in several aspects of economic crime like counterfeiting and piracy, illegal drug production and trafficking, environmental crimes, human trafficking and smuggling, corruption and money laundering, and cybercrime. It is argued that while flawed politics is one of the causes, this criminality is eating away at the integrity of the state, as state actors are very often criminals themselves or are colluding with criminals.

Solving Asia’s Demographic Dilemmas

Most Asian countries face intractable demographic dilemmas. In much of East Asia, fertility has plummeted below replacement rates, populations are aging, workforces declining, and in Japan the population has begun falling. In South Asia, Indonesia and the Philippines, a youth bulge is bursting into the workforce, but much of this youth is not well educated and there are not enough jobs on offer. A potential demographic dividend could easily morph into an explosion of social frustration. Connecting these two demographic realities is the potential for mutually beneficial migration, and yet a few Asian countries are open to migration. Countries like China, India and the Philippines which rely heavily on migrants’ remittances could suffer from President Trump’s tightening of migration policies.

Getting Better Value Out of Global Value Chains

Global value chains (GVCs) have provided Asia’s emerging economies with a fast track to development. The GVC for Apple’s iPhone is analyzed. Despite the benefits of participating in GVCs, most Asian countries are still capturing very little value from GVCs. Greater efforts are required to open markets and strengthen human capital, and technological and innovative capacities. President Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), his rejection of multilateral trade and his protectionism will undermine the further development of Asia’s GVCs. There is no sign that any Chinese efforts, such as through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, would be an effective replacement for the TPP. Asian governments need to more actively promote socially responsible GVCs in order to foster decent middle-class societies.

Giving All Asians a Chance

Economies and societies will realize their full potential only when all citizens are given a chance to participate. This chapter argues that discrimination, prejudice and persecution are rife in Asia, and highlights the cases of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community; Japanese women; South Asian women who suffer gendercide, forced child marriages and honor killing; Asia’s indigenous peoples like West Papuans, Tibetans and China’s Uighurs; Sri Lanka’s Tamil community; and India’s lower castes. President Trump’s proposed slashing of the budgets of the State Department and USAID will likely affect the US leadership in the promotion of the rights of the LGBT community, women and other minority rights in Asia and elsewhere.

Can Asian Countries Live Together in Peace and Harmony

Asia’s relative peace this past half century or more has underpinned its economic renaissance, along with regional cooperation, especially through ASEAN. But today, the relative stability of post-war Asia, led by the US, is being shaken by the rise of China and the power struggle between China and the US for political leadership of Asia. There is much debate about whether this will lead to military conflict between China and the US. In any event, the US seems to be losing its hold over Asia, something which will accelerate under the Trump administration. Asian countries will need to cooperate better together. But this will be a great challenge in light of the tensions involving China, North Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and India.