Johnny Kahlert

Avian collision risk at an offshore wind farm.

We have been the first to investigate whether long-lived geese and ducks can detect and avoid a large offshore wind farm by tracking their diurnal migration patterns with radar. We found that the percentage of flocks entering the wind farm area decreased significantly (by a factor 4.5) from pre-construction to initial operation. At night, migrating flocks were more prone to enter the wind farm but counteracted the higher risk of collision in the dark by increasing their distance from individual turbines and flying in the corridors between turbines. Overall, less than 1% of the ducks and geese migrated close enough to the turbines to be at any risk of collision.

Incretin-Based Therapy and Risk of Acute Pancreatitis: A Nationwide Population-Based Case-Control Study

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether the use of incretin-based drugs (GLP-1 receptor agonists and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 [DPP4] inhibitors) is associated with acute pancreatitis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The study was a nationwide population-based case-control study using medical databases in Denmark. Participants were 12,868 patients with a first-time hospitalization for acute pancreatitis between 2005 and 2012 and a population of 128,680 matched control subjects. The main outcome measure was the odds ratio (OR) for acute pancreatitis associated with different antihyperglycemic drugs. We adjusted for history of gallstones, alcoholism, obesity, and other pancreatitis-associated comorbidities and medications. RESULTS A total of 89 pancreatitis patients (0.69%) and 684 control subjects (0.53%) were ever users of incretins. The crude OR for acute pancreatitis among incretin users was 1.36 (95% CI 1.08–1.69), while it was 1.44 (95% CI 1.34–1.54) among users of other antihyperglycemic drugs. After confounder adjustment, the risk of acute pancreatitis was not increased among incretin users (OR 0.95 [95% CI 0.75–1.21]), including DPP4 inhibitor users (OR 1.04 [95% CI 0.80–1.37]) or GLP-1 receptor agonist users (OR 0.82 [95% CI 0.54–1.23]), or among nonincretin antihyperglycemic drug users (OR 1.05 [95% CI 0.98–1.13]), compared with nonusers of any antihyperglycemic drugs. Findings were similar in current versus ever drug users and in patients with pancreatitis risk factors. The adjusted OR comparing incretin-based therapy with other antihyperglycemic therapy internally while also adjusting for diabetes duration and complications was 0.97 (95% CI 0.76–1.23). CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the use of incretin-based drugs appears not to be associated with an increased risk of acute pancreatitis.

Factors affecting escape distances of staging waterbirds

Abstract Escape distances (EDs) have been used to study sensitivity of waterbirds to different sources of disturbance, to design reserves for waterbirds, and to define eco-targets for the Wadden Sea management plan. However, the use of ED as an index of sensitivity has been criticised because it can be highly variable. Although some factors affecting variation in the EDs of species have been studied, there is still a need for further analysis of factors that may affect it. In this study, we analysed the EDs of 19 waterbird species (geese, ducks, waders and gulls) exposed to a walking person (N = 1,371) during autumn and spring 1980–1984 under controlled conditions in the Danish Wadden Sea. We analysed how EDs varied between species in relation to body mass and hunting and within species in relation to flock size and weather conditions. EDs increased significantly with species body mass, and quarry species (dabbling ducks, curlew Numenius arquata, golden plover Pluvialis apricaria, common gull Larus canus and black-headed gull L. ridibundus) had longer EDs than non-quarry species when corrected for body mass. EDs increased with flock size in dabbling ducks and nine waterbird species in autumn and two waterbird species in spring. In autumn an inverse relationship was found between visibility and ED for dabbling ducks and five wader species. An inverse relationship was also found between wind force and ED for three wader species, but this relationship was found to be positive for two wader species. Several factors affected EDs, and EDs measured in one region may not apply to other regions. Based on our results it is recommended that reserve borders (core area and buffer zones) are designed to take into account mean EDs as well as variation in EDs, with respect to local disturbance levels, flock size and target species.

Prenatal exposure to systemic antibacterials and overweight and obesity in Danish schoolchildren: a prevalence study

Background/Objective:Prenatal exposure to antibacterials may permanently dysregulate fetal metabolic patterns via epigenetic pathways or by altering maternal microbiota. We examined the association of prenatal exposure to systemic antibacterials with overweight and obesity in schoolchildren.Subjects/Methods:We conducted a prevalence study among Danish schoolchildren aged 7–16 years using data from routine school anthropometric evaluations conducted during 2002–2013. Prenatal exposure to antibacterials was ascertained by using maternal prescription dispensations and infection-related hospital admissions during pregnancy. We defined overweight and obesity among the children using standard age- and sex-specific cutoffs. We computed sex-specific adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) of overweight and obesity associated with exposure to prenatal antibacterials, adjusting for maternal age at delivery, marital status, smoking in pregnancy and multiple gestation; we also stratified the analyses by birth weight.Results:Among 9886 schoolchildren, 3280 (33%) had prenatal exposure to antibacterials. aPRs associated with the exposure were 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10–1.45) for overweight and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.03–1.62) for obesity. Among girls, aPRs were 1.16 (95% CI: 0.95–1.42) for overweight and 1.27 (95% CI: 0.89 to 1.82) for obesity. Among boys, aPRs were 1.37 (95% CI: 1.13–1.66) for overweight and 1.29 (95% CI: 0.96–1.73) for obesity. The aPR for overweight was higher among schoolchildren with birth weight <3500 g (aPR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.05–1.61) than in schoolchildren with birth weight ⩾3500 g (aPR: 1.18, 95% CI: 0.95–1.46). Inversely, the association for obesity was higher among schoolchildren with birth weight ⩾3500 g (aPR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.00–1.81) than among those who were <3500 g at birth (aPR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.82–1.65).Conclusions:Prenatal exposure to systemic antibacterials is associated with an increased risk of overweight and obesity at school age, and this association varies by birth weight.

Female resistance to pneumonia identifies lung macrophage nitric oxide Synthase-3 as a therapeutic target

To identify new approaches to enhance innate immunity to bacterial pneumonia, we investigated the natural experiment of gender differences in resistance to infections. Female and estrogen-treated male mice show greater resistance to pneumococcal pneumonia, seen as greater bacterial clearance, diminished lung inflammation, and better survival. In vitro, lung macrophages from female mice and humans show better killing of ingested bacteria. Inhibitors and genetically altered mice identify a critical role for estrogen-mediated activation of lung macrophage nitric oxide synthase-3 (NOS3). Epidemiologic data show decreased hospitalization for pneumonia in women receiving estrogen or statins (known to activate NOS3). Pharmacologic targeting of NOS3 with statins or another small-molecule compound (AVE3085) enhanced macrophage bacterial killing, improved bacterial clearance, and increased host survival in both primary and secondary (post-influenza) pneumonia. The data identify a novel mechanism for host defense via NOS3 and suggest a potential therapeutic strategy to reduce secondary bacterial pneumonia after influenza. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03711.001

Accuracy of ‘total counts’ of waterbirds from aircraft in coastal waters

Abstract Estimating ‘total counts’ of waterbirds from aircraft is a widely used survey method, and we assessed the effectiveness of this method for geese, ducks, waders and gulls by comparing the results of counts from aircraft with ground counts in the Danish Wadden Sea during 1984–1998. In total, 47 counts were carried out in 12 counting sites and the results were compared for 18 waterbird species, which varied in abundance, flock size and degree of aggregation. Significantly greater numbers of waterbird species were identified from the ground than from aircraft (mean number: 16.1 vs 10.6 species). Depending on the accuracy of aerial counts compared to ground counts, the species were divided into three categories: a) brent goose Branta bernicla, shelduck Tadorna tadorna, mallard Anas platyrhynuchos, eider Somateria mollissima and oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus had a high level of correspondence between densities obtained from ground and aerial counts (detection rate of >80% with no statistical difference between slopes and intercepts of the observed regression lines and the ideal lines (x=y), differences between mean densities of ground and aerial counts being <15%); b) wigeon Anas penelope, teal A. crecca, grey plover Pluvialis squatarola, dunlin Calidris alpine, bar-tailed godwit Limosa lapponica, black-headed gull Larus ridibundus, common gull L. canus, herring gull L. argentatus, great black-backed gull L. marinus and common/arctic tern Sterna hirundo and S. paradisaea had a medium correspondence between densities obtained from the two platforms (detection rate of >55% with differences between the mean densities of ground and aerial counts of <30%; and c) redshank Tringa totanus, greenshank T. nebularia arquata and curlew Numenius arquata had a low correspondence between the densities obtained from the two platforms (detection rate of <55% and differences between the mean densities of ground and aerial counts of >30%). Species with a high and medium level of correspondence between the two platforms are mostly species that are numerous, of widespread occurrence, and found in large flocks. Species with a low correspondence are minority species, occurring scattered or in small flocks. We recommend to supplement aerial counts with ground counts at sites with mixed flocks of more dabbling duck species present to increase the accuracy of the count results.

Global epidemiology of hysterectomy: possible impact on gynecological cancer rates

Despite the fact that hysterectomy is the most common surgical procedure worldwide in gynecology, national reporting of the incidence rate of gynecological cancers rarely removes the proportion no longer at risk of the disease from the population-at-risk-denominator (ie, women who have had a hysterectomy). The incidence rate of gynecological cancers is thus likely underestimated. Because hysterectomy, as well as oophorectomy, incidence varies across countries, age, and over time, meaningful comparison of gynecological cancer incidence rates may be compromised. Without accurate estimates of gynecological cancer incidence rates, performed via removing the proportion of hysterectomized or oophorectomized women from the population-at-risk-denominator, the impact of prevention strategies may be masked or misinterpreted. Furthermore, because national cervical cancer screening guidelines are at least in part based on the national reporting of cervical cancer incidence, it is important that the incidence rate reflects the true population at risk.

Modelling Skylarks (Alauda arvensis) to predict impacts of changes in land management and policy: development and testing of an agent-based model.

Agent-based simulation models provide a viable approach for developing applied models of species and systems for predictive management. However, there has been some reluctance to use these models for policy applications due to complexity and the need for improved testing and communication of the models. We present the development and testing of a comprehensive model for Skylark (Alauda arvensis) in Danish agricultural landscapes. The model is part of the ALMaSS system, which considers not only individual skylarks, but also the detailed dynamic environment from which they obtain the information necessary to simulate their behaviour. Population responses emerge from individuals interacting with each other and the environment. Model development and testing was carried out using pattern-oriented modelling. The testing procedure was based on the models ability to represent detailed real world patterns of distribution and density, reproductive performance and seasonal changes in territory numbers. Data to support this was collected over a 13-year period and comprised detailed field observations of breeding birds and intensive surveys. The model was able to recreate the real world data patterns accurately; it was also able to simultaneously fit a number of other secondary system properties which were not formally a part of the testing procedure. The correspondence of model output to real world data and sensitivity analysis are presented and discussed, and the models description is provided in ODdox format (a formal description inter-linked to the program code). Detailed and stringent tests for model performance were carried out, and standardised model description and open access to the source code were provided to open development of the skylark model to others. Over and above documenting the utility of the model, this open process is essential to engender the user trust and ensure continued development of these comprehensive systems for applied purposes.

Response of breeding waders to agri-environmental schemes may be obscured by effects of existing hydrology and farming history

The initiation of agri-environmental schemes (AES) to improve habitats for breeding waders may not show expected benefits in all situations. We show this, using results from a study of breeding waders on 469 grassland fields in the Danish Wadden Sea area. Numbers of breeding waders were not restored to levels of the recent past, even though Lapwings Vanellus vanellus, Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa and Redshanks Tringa totanus were drawn to wet permanent grasslands with AES. We had expected that more waders would be attracted by improved surface water retention during the breeding period due to the AES. However, AES were not introduced to all fields, and this measure did not dramatically change the water regime in part of the breeding fields. Furthermore, dry grasslands and fields that had been cultivated or drained before did not attract more waders, despite the introduction of the AES. The results suggest that the interplay between surface water retention and former farming history are important determinants of the habitat choice for breeding waders. The study emphasises the need for pre-defined success criteria, thorough analysis of the nature of the habitat and consideration of population processes before initiation of an AES, so that realistic management goals are defined and expected benefits can be achieved.

Field methods to assess pectoral muscle mass in moulting geese

In this paper, we report two new simple field methods to assess changes in pectoral muscle mass in live moulting geese. In the first method, transverse chest profiles of Canada geese Branta canadensis and greylag geese Anser anser were recorded using soldering wire. This standard measure of the chest angle showed a highly significant relationship with actual pectoral muscle mass. Chest angle measures showed a highly significant polynomial correlation with an index of moult stage, i.e. length of the ninth primary (p9). This indicated an initial slight decline in pectoral muscle mass as p9 length increased, followed by an increase in muscle mass in preparation for regaining the ability to fly. In the second method, visual pectoral profile scores from 0 (thin pectoral muscles concave) to 3 (convex bulky) recorded at distances using telescope or binoculars also proved to be useful as a field measure of pectoral muscle mass in moulting geese. Hence, the first method provides a non-consumptive means of predicting pectoral muscle mass in moulting geese without the need to dissect birds, and the second method enables field prediction of muscle mass in moulting geese without resort to capture of birds.