Joline W.J. Beulens

The global burden of diabetes and its complications: an emerging pandemic:

The number of patients with type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly in both developed and developing countries around the world. The emerging pandemic is driven by the combined effects of population ageing, rising levels of obesity and inactivity, and greater longevity among patients with diabetes that is attributable to improved management. The vascular complications of type 2 diabetes account for the majority of the social and economic burden among patients and society more broadly. This review summarizes the burden of type 2 diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, and their vascular complications. It is projected that by 2025 there will be 380 million people with type 2 diabetes and 418 million people with impaired glucose tolerance. Diabetes is a major global cause of premature mortality that is widely underestimated, because only a minority of persons with diabetes dies from a cause uniquely related to the condition. Approximately one half of patients with type 2 diabetes die prematurely of a cardiovascular cause and approximately 10% die of renal failure. Global excess mortality attributable to diabetes in adults was estimated to be 3.8 million deaths. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 17 (Suppl 1):S3-S8

Differences in the prospective association between individual plasma phospholipid saturated fatty acids and incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

Summary Background Conflicting evidence exists regarding the association between saturated fatty acids (SFAs) and type 2 diabetes. In this longitudinal case-cohort study, we aimed to investigate the prospective associations between objectively measured individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and incident type 2 diabetes in EPIC-InterAct participants. Methods The EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study includes 12 403 people with incident type 2 diabetes and a representative subcohort of 16 154 individuals who were selected from a cohort of 340 234 European participants with 3·99 million person-years of follow-up (the EPIC study). Incident type 2 diabetes was ascertained until Dec 31, 2007, by a review of several sources of evidence. Gas chromatography was used to measure the distribution of fatty acids in plasma phospholipids (mol%); samples from people with type 2 diabetes and subcohort participants were processed in a random order by centre, and laboratory staff were masked to participant characteristics. We estimated country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for associations per SD of each SFA with incident type 2 diabetes using Prentice-weighted Cox regression, which is weighted for case-cohort sampling, and pooled our findings using random-effects meta-analysis. Findings SFAs accounted for 46% of total plasma phospholipid fatty acids. In adjusted analyses, different individual SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposing directions. Even-chain SFAs that were measured (14:0 [myristic acid], 16:0 [palmitic acid], and 18:0 [stearic acid]) were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per SD difference: myristic acid 1·15 [95% CI 1·09–1·22], palmitic acid 1·26 [1·15–1·37], and stearic acid 1·06 [1·00–1·13]). By contrast, measured odd-chain SFAs (15:0 [pentadecanoic acid] and 17:0 [heptadecanoic acid]) were inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR [95% CI] per 1 SD difference: 0·79 [0·73–0·85] for pentadecanoic acid and 0·67 [0·63–0·71] for heptadecanoic acid), as were measured longer-chain SFAs (20:0 [arachidic acid], 22:0 [behenic acid], 23:0 [tricosanoic acid], and 24:0 [lignoceric acid]), with HRs ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 (95% CIs ranging between 0·61 and 0·92). Our findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Interpretation Different individual plasma phospholipid SFAs were associated with incident type 2 diabetes in opposite directions, which suggests that SFAs are not homogeneous in their effects. Our findings emphasise the importance of the recognition of subtypes of these fatty acids. An improved understanding of differences in sources of individual SFAs from dietary intake versus endogenous metabolism is needed. Funding EU FP6 programme, Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Medical Research Council Human Nutrition Research, and Cambridge Lipidomics Biomarker Research Initiative.

Fruit and vegetable intake and mortality from ischaemic heart disease: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Heart study.

AIMS A higher intake of fruits and vegetables has been associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is some uncertainty about the interpretation of this association. The objective was to assess the relation between fruit and vegetable intake and risk of mortality from IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Heart study. METHODS AND RESULTS After an average of 8.4 years of follow-up, there were 1636 deaths from IHD among 313 074 men and women without previous myocardial infarction or stroke from eight European countries. Participants consuming at least eight portions (80 g each) of fruits and vegetables a day had a 22% lower risk of fatal IHD [relative risk (RR) = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.95] compared with those consuming fewer than three portions a day. After calibration of fruit and vegetable intake to account for differences in dietary assessment between the participating centres, a one portion (80 g) increment in fruit and vegetable intake was associated with a 4% lower risk of fatal IHD (RR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.92-1.00, P for trend = 0.033). CONCLUSION Results from this large observational study suggest that a higher intake of fruits and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of IHD mortality. Whether this association is causal and, if so, the biological mechanism(s) by which fruits and vegetables operate to lower IHD risks remains unclear.

Dietary Intake of Total, Animal, and Vegetable Protein and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-NL Study

OBJECTIVE Dietary recommendations are focused mainly on relative dietary fat and carbohydrate content in relation to diabetes risk. Meanwhile, high-protein diets may contribute to disturbance of glucose metabolism, but evidence from prospective studies is scarce. We examined the association among dietary total, vegetable, and animal protein intake and diabetes incidence and whether consuming 5 energy % from protein at the expense of 5 energy % from either carbohydrates or fat was associated with diabetes risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A prospective cohort study was conducted among 38,094 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-NL study. Dietary protein intake was measured with a validated food frequency questionnaire. Incident diabetes was verified against medical records. RESULTS During 10 years of follow-up, 918 incident cases of diabetes were documented. Diabetes risk increased with higher total protein (hazard ratio 2.15 [95% CI 1.77–2.60] highest vs. lowest quartile) and animal protein (2.18 [1.80–2.63]) intake. Adjustment for confounders did not materially change these results. Further adjustment for adiposity measures attenuated the associations. Vegetable protein was not related to diabetes. Consuming 5 energy % from total or animal protein at the expense of 5 energy % from carbohydrates or fat increased diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS Diets high in animal protein are associated with an increased diabetes risk. Our findings also suggest a similar association for total protein itself instead of only animal sources. Consumption of energy from protein at the expense of energy from either carbohydrates or fat may similarly increase diabetes risk. This finding indicates that accounting for protein content in dietary recommendations for diabetes prevention may be useful.

Prediction models for risk of developing type 2 diabetes: systematic literature search and independent external validation study

Objective To identify existing prediction models for the risk of development of type 2 diabetes and to externally validate them in a large independent cohort. Data sources Systematic search of English, German, and Dutch literature in PubMed until February 2011 to identify prediction models for diabetes. Design Performance of the models was assessed in terms of discrimination (C statistic) and calibration (calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test).The validation study was a prospective cohort study, with a case cohort study in a random subcohort. Setting Models were applied to the Dutch cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort study (EPIC-NL). Participants 38 379 people aged 20-70 with no diabetes at baseline, 2506 of whom made up the random subcohort. Outcome measure Incident type 2 diabetes. Results The review identified 16 studies containing 25 prediction models. We considered 12 models as basic because they were based on variables that can be assessed non-invasively and 13 models as extended because they additionally included conventional biomarkers such as glucose concentration. During a median follow-up of 10.2 years there were 924 cases in the full EPIC-NL cohort and 79 in the random subcohort. The C statistic for the basic models ranged from 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 0.75) to 0.84 (0.82 to 0.85) for risk at 7.5 years. For prediction models including biomarkers the C statistic ranged from 0.81 (0.80 to 0.83) to 0.93 (0.92 to 0.94). Most prediction models overestimated the observed risk of diabetes, particularly at higher observed risks. After adjustment for differences in incidence of diabetes, calibration improved considerably. Conclusions Most basic prediction models can identify people at high risk of developing diabetes in a time frame of five to 10 years. Models including biomarkers classified cases slightly better than basic ones. Most models overestimated the actual risk of diabetes. Existing prediction models therefore perform well to identify those at high risk, but cannot sufficiently quantify actual risk of future diabetes.

A high menaquinone intake reduces the incidence of coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM Vitamin K dependent proteins have been demonstrated to inhibit vascular calcification. Data on the effect of vitamin K intake on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, however, are scarce. To examine the relationship between dietary vitamins K(1) and K(2) intake, and its subtypes, and the incidence of CHD. METHODS AND RESULTS We used data from the Prospect-EPIC cohort consisting of 16,057 women, enrolled between 1993 and 1997 and aged 49-70 years, who were free of cardiovascular diseases at baseline. Intake of vitamin K and other nutrients was estimated with a food frequency questionnaire. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse the data. After a mean+/-SD follow-up of 8.1+/-1.6 years, we identified 480 incident cases of CHD. Mean vitamin K(1) intake was 211.7+/-100.3 microg/d and vitamin K(2) intake was 29.1+/-12.8 microg/d. After adjustment for traditional risk factors and dietary factors, we observed an inverse association between vitamin K(2) and risk of CHD with a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 0.91 [95% CI 0.85-1.00] per 10 microg/d vitamin K(2) intake. This association was mainly due to vitamin K(2) subtypes MK-7, MK-8 and MK-9. Vitamin K(1) intake was not significantly related to CHD. CONCLUSIONS A high intake of menoquinones, especially MK-7, MK-8 and MK-9, could protect against CHD. However, more research is necessary to define optimal intake levels of vitamin K intake for the prevention of CHD.

High dietary menaquinone intake is associated with reduced coronary calcification

BACKGROUND Dietary vitamin K is thought to decrease risk of cardiovascular disease by reducing coronary calcification, but inconsistent results are reported. This may be due to different effects of vitamin K(1) (phylloquinone) and vitamin K(2) (menaquinone, MK), but few studies included both. METHODS We investigated the association of intake of phylloquinone and menaquinone, including its subtypes (MK4-MK10), with coronary calcification in a cross-sectional study among 564 post-menopausal women. Phylloquinone and menaquinone intake was estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire. RESULTS Sixty-two percent (n=360) of the women had coronary calcification based on 1.5-mm thick slices. Phylloquinone intake was not associated with coronary calcification with a relative risk (RR) of 1.17 (95%-confidence interval: 0.96-1.42; p(trend)=0.11) of the highest versus lowest quartile. Menaquinone intake was associated with decreased coronary calcification with an RR of 0.80 (95%-CI: 0.65-0.98; p(trend)=0.03). CONCLUSION This study shows that high dietary menaquinone intake, but probably not phylloquinone, is associated with reduced coronary calcification. Adequate menaquinone intakes could therefore be important to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Fruit and vegetable intake and type 2 diabetes: EPIC-InterAct prospective study and meta-analysis

Fruit and vegetable intake (FVI) may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the epidemiological evidence is inconclusive. The aim of this study is to examine the prospective association of FVI with T2D and conduct an updated meta-analysis. In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-InterAct (EPIC-InterAct) prospective case–cohort study nested within eight European countries, a representative sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of T2D were identified from 340 234 individuals with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. For the meta-analysis we identified prospective studies on FVI and T2D risk by systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE until April 2011. In EPIC-InterAct, estimated FVI by dietary questionnaires varied more than twofold between countries. In adjusted analyses the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing the highest with lowest quartile of reported intake was 0.90 (0.80–1.01) for FVI; 0.89 (0.76–1.04) for fruit and 0.94 (0.84–1.05) for vegetables. Among FV subtypes, only root vegetables were inversely associated with diabetes 0.87 (0.77–0.99). In meta-analysis using pooled data from five studies including EPIC-InterAct, comparing the highest with lowest category for FVI was associated with a lower relative risk of diabetes (0.93 (0.87–1.00)). Fruit or vegetables separately were not associated with diabetes. Among FV subtypes, only green leafy vegetable (GLV) intake (relative risk: 0.84 (0.74–0.94)) was inversely associated with diabetes. Subtypes of vegetables, such as root vegetables or GLVs may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes, while total FVI may exert a weaker overall effect.

Cohort Profile: The EPIC-NL study

A major scientific challenge for the next few decades is to understand the interaction between genetic susceptibility and environmental factors in the aetiology of chronic diseases. The most promising approach to discover these interactions requires a combined effort of epidemiology and molecular genetics and large sample sizes for sufficient power. Already in the early 90s, the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was initiated in 10 European countries to create a large cohort to study the aetiology of chronic diseases. The Netherlands has contributed two cohort studies to EPIC: the Prospect cohort of 17 357 women of the Julius Center in Utrecht, and the Monitoring Project on Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases (MORGEN) cohort of 22 654 men and women of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) in Bilthoven. In the design phase, both cohorts collaborated closely to obtain maximal synergy in the design of the questionnaires and to follow identical protocols in the collection of biological samples. Because of the efficiency gain in maintaining the cohort infrastructure and in conducting scientific analyses, the Julius Center and the RIVM decided to combine efforts to maintain and expand the cohorts and biobanks by merging them into one EPICNetherlands (EPIC-NL) study.

Prediction models for the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

Context A recent overview of all CVD models applicable to diabetes patients is not available. Objective To review the primary prevention studies that focused on the development, validation and impact assessment of a cardiovascular risk model, scores or rules that can be applied to patients with type 2 diabetes. Design Systematic review. Data sources Medline was searched from 1966 to 1 April 2011. Study selection A study was eligible when it described the development, validation or impact assessment of a model that was constructed to predict the occurrence of cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes, or when the model was designed for use in the general population but included diabetes as a predictor. Data extraction A standardized form was sued to extract all data of the CVD models. Results 45 prediction models were identified, of which 12 were specifically developed for patients with type 2 diabetes. Only 31% of the risk scores has been externally validated in a diabetes population, with an area under the curve ranging from 0.61 to 0.86 and 0.59 to 0.80 for models developed in a diabetes population and in the general population, respectively. Only one risk score has been studied for its effect on patient management and outcomes. 10% of the risk scores are advocated in national diabetes guidelines. Conclusion Many cardiovascular risk scores are available that can be applied to patients with type 2 diabetes. A minority of these risk scores has been validated and tested for its predictive accuracy, with only a few showing a discriminative value of ≥0.80. The impact of applying these risk scores in clinical practice is almost completely unknown, but their use is recommended in various national guidelines.