Jon A. Carnegie

Pedestrian safety through a raised median and redesigned intersections

Documentation was done on the effect of a raised median, signalized and redesigned intersections, curbs, and sidewalks on vehicle speed, pedestrian exposure risk, driver predictability, and vehicle volume along a four-lane suburban roadway in central New Jersey. The analysis used both quantitative tools (speed and volume counts, timing runs) and qualitative methods (pedestrian tracking, video, before-and-after photography). The results are that the 85th-percentile vehicle speed fell by 2 mi/h and pedestrian exposure risk decreased by 28%. Also, the median allows pedestrians to cross one direction of traffic at a time and signals, curbs, median, redesigned intersections, and striping patterns work together to manage driver behavior. In regard to vehicles, it was found that vehicle volumes were not affected and that vehicle speeds acted independently of vehicle volumes. A collision analysis projected a savings of

Use of Regional Transportation Planning Tool for Modeling Emergency Evacuation

1.7 million over the next 3 years in direct and indirect costs. The goal of the report was to produce a simple and straightforward analysis tool for similar projects in the area. Some of the benefits of roadway projects such as these can be quantified numerically, whereas others rely on qualitative analyses. For example, before-and-after speeds are easily gathered and compared, whereas before-and-after pedestrian behavior at the raised median requires a more in-depth approach made easier by digital cameras. Together, before-and-after data and before-and-after imaging present a more holistic picture of the benefits and limitations of a project.

Empirical Evacuation Response Curve During Hurricane Irene in Cape May County, New Jersey

Evacuation modeling and analysis are concerned primarily with identifying the types of traffic movements associated with a disaster evacuation, as well as the estimation of evacuation and clearance times. Thus, an efficient evacuation planning model is important in determining evacuation times, identifying critical locations in the transportation network, and assessing traffic operations strategies and evacuation policies. In this paper various scenarios, including a hurricane, a toxic chemical leak, dirty bombs, and a nuclear event, are studied to understand the evacuation and highway network effects of the evacuating population. Unlike corridor studies or bottleneck studies found in the literature, a network model with equilibrium assignment is used. The scenarios are tested with a case study of Northern New Jersey, modeled with the North Jersey Regional Transportation Model–Enhanced, a large-scale travel demand model of the region. The results presented in this paper focus on the effect of several assumptions and input data on the evacuation estimates, giving planners an idea of the necessary considerations for evacuation planning with a modeling context. The experience with this study shows that regional planning models are suitable tools to model evacuation; however, the modeler must be careful in their use. Multiple methodologies can be used, and assumptions, such as time of day, notice or no-notice, passengers per car, and background traffic in the network, have wide-ranging effects.

Feature selection for ranking of most influential variables for evacuation behavior modeling across disasters

Understanding evacuation response behavior is critical for public officials in deciding when to issue emergency evacuation orders for an impending hurricane. Such behavior is typically measured by an evacuation response curve that represents the proportion of total evacuation demand over time. This study analyzes evacuation behavior and constructs an evacuation response curve on the basis of traffic data collected during Hurricane Irene in 2011 in Cape May County, New Jersey. The evacuation response curve follows a general S-shape with sharp upward changes in slope after the issuance of mandatory evacuation notices. These changes in slope represent quick response behavior, which may be caused in part by an easily mobilized tourist population, lack of hurricane evacuation experience, or the nature of the location, in this case a rural area with limited evacuation routes. Moreover, the widely used S-curves with different mathematical functions and the state-of-the-art behavior models are calibrated and compared with empirical data. The results show that the calibrated S-curves with logit and Rayleigh functions fit empirical data better. The evacuation behavior analysis and calibrated evacuation response models from this hurricane evacuation event may benefit evacuation planning in similar areas. In addition, traffic data used in this study may also be valuable for the comparative analysis of traffic patterns between the evacuation periods and regular weekdays and weekends.

Improving the Resilience of Transit Systems Threatened by Natural Disasters, Volume 3: Literature Review and Case Studies

The extensive list of factors that affect the evacuee decision process makes it difficult to design effective surveys and to develop decision models with high predictive power. Regression models and significance levels can help identify relevant variables and overcome this problem to an extent. However, such approaches fall short of ranking these variables or recognizing the redundant ones. In this study, the use of a feature selection method was proposed to ensure that the selected features were relevant and not at the same time redundant. This method, called conditional mutual information maximization, consists of picking features at each step and minimizes the uncertainty in the decision conditional on the response of any feature already picked. As a case study, the variables influencing evacuation behavior in the Northern New Jersey Evacuation Survey were ranked and compared for disaster scenarios. To validate the method and to demonstrate how it compared with the traditional methods, logistic regression models were also estimated with the same data set. It was found that the top-ranked variables might be available through an existing database such as the U.S. census and some could be calculated on the basis of the threat type and government action. This fact can be useful for emergency planners when an evacuation survey for a study area is not readily available. Overall, the feature selection algorithm succeeds in identifying the most influential factors for all threat types. The suggested approach can help both preprocessing (e.g., defining a set of input variables) and postprocessing (e.g., identification of variables that should be kept) for behavioral modeling.

Panel Data Analysis to Identify Covariates of Longevity and Patronage of Community Shuttles in New Jersey

This report provides transit professionals with information and analysis relevant to adapting U.S. public transportation assets and services to climate change impacts. Climate impacts such as heat waves and flooding will hinder transit agencies’ ability to attain a state of good repair and provide reliable and safe service. The report examines anticipated climate impacts on U.S. transit and current climate change adaptation efforts by domestic and foreign transit agencies. It further examines the availability of vulnerability assessment, risk management, and adaptation planning tools as well as their applicability to public transportation agencies.” (p. vii (abstract)) “The report provides examples of adaptation strategies and discusses how transit agencies might incorporate climate change adaptation into their organizational structures and existing activities such as asset management systems, planning, and emergency response.” (p. vii (abstract)) Populations Referenced The report will be a valuable resource for transit agencies and be of interest to regional, state, and federal agencies that oversee, plan, or finance public transportation. Topics Covered A premise of the report is that responsible risk management calls for reducing vulnerability and improving resilience of transit assets and services to the impacts of climate change. To support that premise the report provides: uf0b7 Synthesis of literature related to climate change, adaptation, and transportation having relevance to the transit industry; uf0b7 Review of anticipated climate change impacts on U.S. transit; uf0b7 Synthesis of existing vulnerability assessment, risk management, and adaptation planning tools and explains their application to transit agencies; uf0b7 Discussion of strategies for adapting transit assets and operations to climate change impacts; uf0b7 Discussion on implementation considerations and how transit agencies can incorporate adaptation strategies into organizational structures and activities; and uf0b7 Supporting case studies and illustrative examples. Type of Sponsoring Agency or Organization Federal Transit Administration Geographic Distribution National Type of Transit The goal of this report is to increase awareness of the future environmental stressors transit Improving the Resilience of Transit Systems Threatened by Natural Disasters, Volume 3: Literature Review and Case Studies Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. TCRP A-41: Literature Review A-14 Mode(s) assets will encounter as a result of climate change and is intended for use by transit agencies of all sizes and modes. Type of Vulnerability All vulnerabilities are considered. The report provides numerous and diverse examples of the impact upon transit services due to extreme weather including: precipitation, temperature, sea‐ level rise and hurricanes. Goals and Motivations A premise of the report is that “climate change adaptation is essentially responsible risk management” (p.3) and “that adapting to climate change impacts will require interdisciplinary efforts among engineers, planners, frontline maintenance and operation staff, strategic planners, emergency response experts, and others.” (p. 3‐4) This long‐term effort will require not so much doing entirely different things, but doing some of the same things in a different way. These principle beliefs spurred the effort to create a report that provides a useful departure point to help place the transit industry on the track to climate resilience. (p. 4 (not a direct quote but should be cited)) Context The report recognizes that for transit agencies “already challenged by maintenance backlogs on tight budgets, climate change brings additional environmental stressors that deteriorate assets and requires more maintenance and expense.” (p. 5) “The increased frequency of extreme events (such as heat waves and severe storms) will be more challenging to manage than gradual effects such as a steady rise in average temperatures.” (p. 1) Additionally, “transit agencies will face multiple climate stressors with a combined impact on transit assets and services, and these climate stressors will interact with existing factors (such as high percentage of impervious surfaces) to amplify effects.” (p. 32) “Climate impacts on transit assets will hinder agencies’ ability to achieve goals such as attaining a state of good repair and providing reliability and safety, which may then impact ridership. Therefore, climate change adaptation should not be outside the regular purview of transit management. Rather, given that adaptation strategies offer the opportunity to avoid catastrophic losses through cost‐effective preventive measures, the issue falls squarely within the mainstream duties of transit agency management.” (p. 7) Tools The report did not specifically introduce any tools or metrics. Noteworthy Aspects The report noted that the Maryland State Highway Administration has used its asset management system as a climate adaptation tool. “The agency collects climate change data in its Transportation Asset Management Program (TAMP) to better analyze priority assets. Climate‐ related asset data include age, elevation, materials used, design lifetime and stage of life, FEMA flood maps, current and historical performance and conditions, vegetation, soil type, average daily traffic, bridge scour criticality, and length and width of bridges.” (p. 85‐86) The report provides a case study of the Transport for London as an agency also using their asset management system as an adaptation tool. The report provide four case studies of the following transit agencies: uf0b7 New York MTA – Partnering and Assessing Impacts uf0b7 Mobile, Alabama ‐ Developing a Criticality Assessment uf0b7 Los Angeles County MTA – Initiating a Vulnerably Assessment as Part of a Broader Sustainability Framework uf0b7 Transport for London – Incorporating Adaptation into Asset Management Systems Captivating Value “... climate stressors will interact with existing factors (such as high percentage of impervious surfaces) to amplify effects.” (p. 31) Decision Question The research document was written to encourage transit agencies to understand that climate change adaptation is essentially responsible risk management and that adapting to climate change is a necessary objective. Decision Maker Transit agency leadership Improving the Resilience of Transit Systems Threatened by Natural Disasters, Volume 3: Literature Review and Case Studies Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. TCRP A-41: Literature Review A-15 Relevance To assist transit agencies, the report recommends taking a risk management approach noting that risk assessment tools developed by governments and non‐profits offer guidance on how to prioritize climate risks by assessing the likelihood of occurrence and the magnitude of consequence. “Taking a risk management approach mitigates risk without expensively over‐ engineering assets.” (p. 2) The report further provides examples of adaptation strategies and discusses how transit agencies might incorporate climate change adaptation into their organizational structures and existing activities. For instance: uf0b7 “Following the August 2007 flood, as well as other less severe floods, New York MTA raised many of its sidewalk level ventilation grates so that water could not enter from flooded sidewalks. New York held a design competition to incorporate the vents into street furniture.” (p. 66) uf0b7 “Kansas City’s new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) System has 30 stations with rain gardens in bump‐outs designed to collect and filter stormwater runoff from roads and sidewalks (see Figure 4‐6). This reduces flooding, erosion, and the entrance of pollutants in rivers and streams. The BRT system also features a pervious concrete parking lot so that stormwater can seep into the ground, and shade trees that capture rain water.” (p. 70) uf0b7 “Portland’s TriMet noted a significant increase in slow orders due to high heat over a period of three years. Recognizing the inconvenience to customers, TriMet implemented a concerted set of strategies with an ultimate goal of no slow orders. TriMet identified areas with frequent rail buckling, many of which were adjacent to curves or in direct sunlight. The Maintenance of Way division developed expansion joints and installed them by breaking the continuously welded rail in eight to nine key areas and applying the joints. The joints allow for one and a half to two inches of relief, permitting the rail to expand.” (p. 75) uf0b7 “The Washington State DOT adopted an agency‐wide policy in 2010 that requires climate change analyses—both mitigation and adaptation—to be included in all WSDOT environmental impact statements performed under the State Environmental Policy Act.” (p. 94) The report noted that “in recent years, multiple governmental entities have begun to assess climate change impacts on infrastructure and to develop potential responses using closely related vulnerability, risk, and adaptation assessment frameworks and tools. The report draws out the elements of the frameworks that are most relevant to public transportation agencies and noted that the frameworks share a general approach: develop or gather climate projections, establish how those climate changes will impact assets, determine the severity of the impacts, and develop measures to address the high‐risk impacts.” (p.45) The report identified the following adaptation assessment guidebooks as being particularly relevant: uf0b7 New York Climate Adaptation Assessment Guidebook http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749‐6632.2010.05324.x/pdf uf0b7 Federal Highway Administration Conceptual Model Assessing Vulnerability and Risk of Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/conceptual_model62410.htm uf0b7 University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System (Climate Impacts Group)

What Does It Take for Shuttles to Succeed? Comparison of Stated Preferences and Reality of Shuttle Success in New Jersey

Shuttle services connecting passengers’ origins and destinations to transit stations and terminals can play a crucial role in enhancing system ridership. Partially because of federal funding through the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program, such services have become popular in parts of the country. However, studies on the success of community shuttles have been rare. Almost all past studies were stated-preference studies, or case studies without statistical analysis of actual performance of shuttle services. To provide researchers and practitioners with crucial information on the factors potentially influencing the success of shuttle services, this study examined the longevity, level of service, and passenger volumes of the shuttle services introduced in New Jersey between 2002 and 2004. By using panel data analysis, the authors examined how local financial condition, station lot parking, parking cost, bus connections, and socioeconomic and land use characteristics of service areas influence the performance of shuttle services. The study used different types of data, including quarterly panel data on 31 shuttle services for a 7-year period, data from stated-preference surveys of six New Jersey Transit commuter rail lines, and municipal finance data. Results indicated that local financial condition was important for the longevity and level of service of shuttles. Evidence was also found that ease of access to station by alternative modes–whether by walking, local buses, or driving–reduced the attractiveness of shuttle services. Results of the study showed that the success of shuttle services may depend on factors far beyond stated preferences of potential users.

Using Hypothetical Disaster Scenarios to Predict Evacuation Behavioral Response

In 1998, New Jersey Transit (NJ Transit) conducted an onboard survey of passengers on three of its commuter rail lines on their preferences for new shuttle services. During the first half of the 2000s, community-based shuttle service was introduced in several New Jersey communities—many under the federal Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program. Some of these services continue today, but others were discontinued. This study uses data from the onboard survey to identify the rider characteristics and spatial characteristics of communities that influence stated preferences for shuttle service to rail stations. Correlation analysis, factor analysis, and logistic regression are used to identify these characteristics. With the use of results from the stated preference analysis, the communities where shuttle service has continued were compared with communities where service has been discontinued, to identify the factors that may influence the shuttles success. The analysis of stated preferences and the comparison of communities suggest that concentration of immigrant populations, non-English speakers, and persons with moderate income may be important for the success of shuttles in the study area. Sporadic evidence was found that parking costs and availability of parking at stations may influence peoples decision to use shuttles. Similar evidence is found indicating that people with high incomes, people who live close to stations, and people who already use rail transit regularly may be indifferent to new shuttle service.