Jón Egill Kristjánsson

Condensation and Cloud Parameterization Studies with a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Abstract This paper presents the implementation of a parameterization scheme for convective and stratiform condensation (with cloud water as a prognostic variable) into a fine mesh numerical weather prediction model. The results from a 36 h integration of the model, with grid distance 50 km, indicate that the new condensation scheme contributes to an improved forecast compared to that obtained by the original model. Furthermore, from a qualitative comparison with satellite pictures, it is found that the prediction of condensation-cloud parameters is quite realistic.

A Classical-Theory-Based Parameterization of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation by Mineral Dust, Soot, and Biological Particles in a Global Climate Model

An ice nucleation parameterization based on classical nucleation theory, with aerosol-specific parameters derived from experiments, has been implemented into a global climate model—the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)-Oslo. The parameterization treats immersion, contact, and deposition nucleation by mineral dust, soot, bacteria, fungal spores, and pollen in mixed-phase clouds at temperatures between 08 and 2388C. Immersion freezing is considered for insoluble particles that are activated to cloud droplets, and deposition and contact nucleation are only allowed for uncoated, unactivated aerosols. Immersion freezing by mineral dust is found to be the dominant ice formation process, followed by immersion and contact freezing by soot. The simulated biological aerosol contribution to global atmospheric ice formation is marginal, even with high estimates of their ice nucleation activity, because the number concentration of ice nucleation active biological particles in the atmosphere is low compared to other ice nucleating aerosols. Because of the dominance of mineral dust, the simulated ice nuclei concentrations at temperatures below 2208C are found to correlate with coarse-mode aerosol particle concentrations. The ice nuclei (IN) concentrations in the model agree well overall with in situ continuous flow diffusion chamber measurements. At individual locations, the model exhibits a stronger temperature dependence on IN concentrations than what is observed. The simulated IN composition (77% mineral dust, 23% soot, and 10 25 % biological particles) lies in the range of observed ice nuclei and ice crystal residue compositions.

Aerosol Influence on Mixed-Phase Clouds in CAM-Oslo

Abstract A new treatment of mixed-phase cloud microphysics has been implemented in the general circulation model, Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)-Oslo, which combines the NCAR CAM2.0.1 and a detailed aerosol module. The new treatment takes into account the aerosol influence on ice phase initiation in stratiform clouds with temperatures between 0° and −40°C. Both supersaturation and cloud ice fraction, that is, the fraction of cloud ice compared to the total cloud water in a given grid box, are now determined based on a physical reasoning in which not only temperature but also the ambient aerosol concentration play a role. Included in the improved microphysics treatment is also a continuity equation for ice crystal number concentration. Ice crystal sources are heterogeneous and homogeneous freezing processes and ice multiplication. Sink terms are collection processes and precipitation formation, that is, melting and sublimation. Instead of using an idealized ice nuclei concentration for the heterogeneous ...

THE GREENLAND FLOW DISTORTION EXPERIMENT

Greenland has a major influence on the atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic-western European region, dictating the location and strength of mesoscale weather systems around the coastal seas of Greenland and directly influencing synoptic-scale weather systems both locally and downstream over Europe. High winds associated with the local weather systems can induce large air-sea fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum in a region that is critical to the overturning of the thermohaline circulation, and thus play a key role in controlling the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system. The Greenland Flow Distortion Experiment (GFDex) is investigating the role of Greenland in defining the structure and predictability of both local and downstream weather systems through a program of aircraft-based observation and numerical modeling. The GFDex observational program is centered upon an aircraft-based field campaign in February and March 2007, at the dawn of the International Polar Year. Twelve missions were fl...

Is there a cosmic ray signal in recent variations in global cloudiness and cloud radiative forcing

In order to evaluate a recent hypothesis of a coupling between galactic cosmic rays, clouds, and climate we have investigated temporal variations in global cloudiness and radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. For this purpose we have used the best available global data sets, i.e., those of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), respectively. Both globally and over midlatitude oceans only, we find a decrease in total cloud coverage between 1986 and 1990 of 2%, while between 1990 and 1993 there is a slightly smaller decrease. When the results are related to temporal variations in cosmic ray activity, we do not find support for a coupling between cosmic rays, total cloudiness, and radiative forcing of climate. A possible exception is low marine clouds at midlatitudes, characterized by few cloud condensation nuclei and a large net cooling effect, but no physical mechanism is known which might explain a connection between cosmic rays and low clouds. The net radiative effect of clouds during the period 1985–1989 shows an enhanced cooling effect despite a reduction in both total and low cloud cover. This contradicts the simple relationship between cloud cover and radiation assumed in the cosmic-ray-cloud-climate hypothesis. The interpretation of the results is rendered difficult by the short time series of ISCCP and ERBE data and by uncertainties concerning instrument calibrations and changes of satellites. When a 43-year time series of synoptic observations over sea is related to cosmic rays over the same period, a weak, negative correlation is found.

A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering

Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earthʼs continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables,

Flow in the Lee of Idealized Mountains and Greenland

Abstract A series of idealized simulations of flow impinging on large mountains is conducted to investigate the impact of the mountain on the flow far downstream and to shed some light on the effects that Greenland may have on airflow over the North Atlantic. The upstream profiles of wind and stability are kept constant, there is no surface friction, the Rossby number is 0.4, and the nondimensional mountain height (ĥ = Nh/U) is varied from 1 to 6. The maximum sea level pressure deficit, the maximum geopotential height deficit, and the orographically generated potential vorticity all increase with increased ĥ, showing no signs of abrupt change as the flow enters the regime of upstream blocking. The potential vorticity produced at the mountain is accumulated in vortices that are advected downstream. The vortices are associated with a larger pressure gradient to the south of the wake, giving rise to stronger westerlies at the surface as well as at upper levels. This process can explain how Greenland may affe...

A multimodel examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment

Temperature and precipitation extremes are examined in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project experiment G1, wherein an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2 from its preindustrial control value is offset by a commensurate reduction in solar irradiance. Compared to the preindustrial climate, changes in climate extremes under G1 are generally much smaller than under 4 × CO2 alone. However, it is also the case that extremes of temperature and precipitation in G1 differ significantly from those under preindustrial conditions. Probability density functions of standardized anomalies of monthly surface temperature T and precipitation P in G1 exhibit an extension of the high-T tail over land, of the low-T tail over ocean, and a shift of P to drier conditions. Using daily model output, we analyzed the frequency of extreme events, such as the coldest night (TNn), warmest day (TXx), and maximum 5 day precipitation amount, and also duration indicators such as cold and warm spells and consecutive dry days. The strong heating at northern high latitudes simulated under 4 × CO2 is much alleviated in G1, but significant warming remains, particularly for TNn compared to TXx. Internal feedbacks lead to regional increases in absorbed solar radiation at the surface, increasing temperatures over Northern Hemisphere land in summer. Conversely, significant cooling occurs over the tropical oceans, increasing cold spell duration there. Globally, G1 is more effective in reducing changes in temperature extremes compared to precipitation extremes and for reducing changes in precipitation extremes versus means but somewhat less effective at reducing changes in temperature extremes compared to means.

Cirrus cloud seeding has potential to cool climate

] Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere,have a net warming effect on Earth’s climate. Consequently,a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thicknesswould cool the climate. Recent research indicates that byseeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote icenucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced.We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate modelwith a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and findthat cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entirewarming caused by human activity from pre-industrial timesto present day. However, the desired effect is only obtainedfor seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimalrange. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, aseeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higherthan optimal concentration results in an over-seeding thatcould have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetimeand contributing to global warming.

Modeling of the Wegener?Bergeron?Findeisen process?implications for aerosol indirect effects

A new parameterization of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process has been developed, and implemented in the general circulation model CAM-Oslo. The new parameterization scheme has important implications for the process of phase transition in mixed-phase clouds. The new treatment of the WBF process replaces a previous formulation, in which the onset of the WBF effect depended on a threshold value of the mixing ratio of cloud ice. As no observational guidance for such a threshold value exists, the previous treatment added uncertainty to estimates of aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds. The new scheme takes subgrid variability into account when simulating the WBF process, allowing for smoother phase transitions in mixed-phase clouds compared to the previous approach. The new parameterization yields a model state which gives reasonable agreement with observed quantities, allowing for calculations of aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds involving a reduced number of tunable parameters. Furthermore, we find a significant sensitivity to perturbations in ice nuclei concentrations with the new parameterization, which leads to a reversal of the traditional cloud lifetime effect.