Jon Fraenkel

Does the Alternative Vote Foster Moderation in Ethnically Divided Societies? The Case of Fiji

Using insights from social choice theory, particularly Blacks concept of single-peaked preferences and Downss median-voter model, the authors previously investigated the theoretical impact of the alternative vote system (AV) on the success of moderate parties in an ethnically bipolar society. Focusing on the simplest case, that with one moderate and one extremist ethnic party associated with each of the two ethnic groups, they found that for AV to necessarily yield outcomes that favor moderate parties there must be majority support for moderation and voter preferences that are single peaked with respect to the ethnic-conflict-defined dimension. Here, the authors test these assumptions with data from the 1999 and 2001 elections in Fiji, an ethnically bipolar society. They show that Fijis objective of ameliorating ethnic divisions by the adoption of AV was not successful. In elections in 1999 and 2001, moderate parties would have fared better under a proportional representation system.

The Coming Anarchy in Oceania? A Critique of the 'Africanisation of the South Pacific' Thesis

This article considers claims, in the wake of coups in Fiji and the Solomon Islands in 2000, that the Pacific region is experiencing‘African’-style difficulties. It argues that the Africanisation thesis is analytically weak, internally inconsistent and empirically flawed. Data covering GDP per capita, literacy, schooling and life expectancy are explored, as are indicators covering coups, insurgencies and military involvement in politics. Claimed similarities between the role played by‘ethnicity’ in driving conflict are considered, as are comparisons of the role played by the post-colonial state. In conclusion, the article looks at the underlying causes of conflict, and potential for future instability, in Melanesia

The Alternative Vote System In Fiji: Electoral Engineering Or Ballot-Rigging?

In 1997, Fiji introduced a voting system devised by leading international electoral experts as an instrument for ethnic conflict reduction. The new preferential voting system, it was hoped, would pave the way for greater co-operation between Indian and indigenous Fijian politicians. Yet the voting system did not work as expected at the May 1999 polls. Coalitions behaved in an unpredicted way, and majorities became critically dependent on transfers of party official-controlled preference votes. The moderate multi-ethnic coalition that had earlier initiated constitutional reform was annihilated, and the predominantly Indian-backed Fiji Labour Party obtained an absolute majority, despite negligible Fijian first preference support. The new government lasted only a year in office before being overthrown by indigenous Fijian extremists.

The Triumph of the Non-Idealist Intellectuals? an Investigation of Fiji's 1999 Election Results

This paper examines the results of Fijis 1999 elections. It looks at the reasons for the overwhelming victory of the Fiji Labour Party and the extent of voting across Fijis racial divide. The paper argues that there was, in fact, very small indigenous Fijian support for the FLP. The victory of the Fiji Labour Party instead owed its origins to (i) the collapse in the vote for the major rival Indo-Fijian party, the National Federation Party, (ii) the rise of the newly-formed Christian Democratic Alliance and the associated fall in the vote for the former Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabukas SVT and (iii) the introduction of the preferential voting system. The paper concludes with a critical examination of the new voting system, arguing that proportional representation might be better suited for Fijis specific political situation.

The Failure of the Alternative Vote as a Tool for Ethnic Moderation in Fiji A Rejoinder to Horowitz

In Donald Horowitzs rejoinder to Fraenkel and Grofman, he retreats from his previous claims about the desirability of alternative vote (AV), mischaracterizes our formal results, and nowhere addresses the extreme disproportionality of electoral outcomes in Fiji except to incorrectly dismiss this as due largely to malapportionment. Although he refuses to recognize the role AV played in the build-up to the overthrow of the Indian-led government in May 2000, Horowitz does acknowledge that the system he so strongly urged on Fijis reformers failed to achieve its intended objectives at the elections of August 2001.

The Impact of RAMSI on the 2006 Elections in the Solomon Islands

The Solomon Islands election of April 2006 was the first since the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands arrived in mid-2003. In its aftermath, riots in Honiara resulted in the destruction of much of Chinatown, the worst incident of civil disorder since the commencement of the Australian-led operation in July 2003. This article examines the election outcomes, and the preceding, largely neglected, impact of RAMSI on the shifting balance between the incumbent Kemakeza government and the opposition. It looks at how and why Snyder Rini’s government emerged victorious on April 18th 2006, and why it collapsed eight days later. In conclusion, the article revisits debates about the causes of the Honiara riots, contesting some of the more far-fetched conspiracy theories and emphasising instead the depth of Solomon Islander reaction against a deeply flawed premiership selection process.

The role of ballot chiefs (matai pälota) and political parties in Sämoa's shift to universal suffrage

Sämoa shifted to universal suffrage only in 1990, after 28 years of independent self-government under a system in which only matai (chiefs or family title-holders) were entitled to vote or stand as candidates. During the matai-only franchise era, increasing numbers of honorific titles were conferred on citizens, so expanding the electoral rolls. Broadening the franchise in 1990, it was hoped, would bring a halt to the creation of ‘ballot chiefs’ (matai pälota). In this paper, we show that there were also other less widely recognised reasons for matai title proliferation during 1962–90 and reveal new data showing that, far from arresting this, the number of matai continued to dramatically expand even after the shift to a universal franchise. We also examine the impact of the 1990 reforms on Sämoas emerging party system and find evidence of the diminishing political significance of standing in the customary hierarchy.

The Remorseless Power of Incumbency in Fiji’s September 2014 Election

Abstract Fiji’s September 2014 election was the first since the military takeover of December 2006 and the first under a new open list proportional representation system. It proved a landslide victory for coup leader turned Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama’s FijiFirst Party. This was a ‘competitive authoritarian’ election, characterised by careful controls over media outlets, manipulation of rules regarding political parties and candidate nominations, and selective use of state finances to harass opponents. It was a genuine contest only in so far as the government could control the process. The outcome demonstrates the potency of incumbency in Fiji, which was also an important factor in the country’s previous post-coup elections in 1992 and 2001.

The Borda Count and its Real World Alternatives: Comparing Scoring Rules in Nauru and Slovenia

This article examines strategic elements of voter behaviour in parliamentary elections where the voting method is a scoring rule other than plurality: the Borda Count, which is used for the election of ethnic minorities in Slovenia, and the Dowdall rule, which is used in the Pacific island state of Nauru in multi-seat districts. After first examining the general properties of scoring rules, and generating theoretical differences between the two rules, we look at empirical evidence from Nauru and Slovenia. This casts a doubt on predictions based simply on a voting rules mathematical properties and on the accuracy of assumptions of sincere rank ordering. 本文研究了议会选举投票者行为的策略因素。议会选举中的投票方法是一个有别于多数法的计分法则：斯洛文尼亚少数族群选举使用的波达计数法；太平洋岛屿国家瑙鲁多席位选区使用的斗多尔法则。作者首先分析了计分法则的一般属性，并对两种法则做了理论区分。然后研究了瑙鲁和斯洛文尼亚的实证资料。作者对仅仅基于投票规则数学属性的预测以及有关纯粹排行假设的精确性表示了质疑。

Introduction – Political Culture, Representation and Electoral Systems in the Pacific Islands

The Pacific Islands possess a diverse range of electoral systems and political institutions. The region includes a constitutional monarchy, in which the king and nobility select 21 of the 30 MPs (Tonga), a state where only customary chiefs (matai) may stand for parliament (Samoa), and a territory with a cabinet composed of three kings and three members appointed as representatives of the French President (Wallis and Futuna). It includes the only country in the world to adopt a ranked-candidate system of voting that is closely related to the system invented by nineteenth century French mathematician Jean-Charles de Borda (Nauru), one of the few remaining democracies that still uses the single-non-transferable-vote (Vanuatu) and a unique variant on the French-style two-round system with multi-member districts and a directly elected president who is nevertheless required to maintain the confidence of parliament (Kiribati). The Pacific has countries which use the AngloAmerican first-past-the-post (plurality in single-member districts) and block vote (plurality in multi-member districts), and others which use list system proportional representation methods of the sort common in Western Europe. With numerous tiny nations around the size of the ancient Greek city states, the Pacific has been described as a ‘natural laboratory’ for electoral systems analysis and experimentation. The contemporary Pacific has also been host to a range of novel efforts at electoral reform. Papua New Guinea (PNG), with five million inhabitants easily the most populous state in the region, adopted a unique form of the Australianstyle alternative vote system (or ‘instant runoff’) in thewakeof the 2002 elections as well as introducing ambitious legislation aimed at strengthening political