Jon H Tobias

Association between bone mass and fractures in children: a prospective cohort study

This is the first prospective cohort study of the association between bone mass and fracture risk in childhood. A total of 6213 children 9.9 years of age were followed for 24 months. Results showed an 89% increased risk of fracture per SD decrease in size‐adjusted BMC.

Using multiple genetic variants as instrumental variables for modifiable risk factors.

Mendelian randomisation analyses use genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate causal effects of modifiable risk factors on disease outcomes. Genetic variants typically explain a small proportion of the variability in risk factors; hence Mendelian randomisation analyses can require large sample sizes. However, an increasing number of genetic variants have been found to be robustly associated with disease-related outcomes in genome-wide association studies. Use of multiple instruments can improve the precision of IV estimates, and also permit examination of underlying IV assumptions. We discuss the use of multiple genetic variants in Mendelian randomisation analyses with continuous outcome variables where all relationships are assumed to be linear. We describe possible violations of IV assumptions, and how multiple instrument analyses can be used to identify them. We present an example using four adiposity-associated genetic variants as IVs for the causal effect of fat mass on bone density, using data on 5509 children enrolled in the ALSPAC birth cohort study. We also use simulation studies to examine the effect of different sets of IVs on precision and bias. When each instrument independently explains variability in the risk factor, use of multiple instruments increases the precision of IV estimates. However, inclusion of weak instruments could increase finite sample bias. Missing data on multiple genetic variants can diminish the available sample size, compared with single instrument analyses. In simulations with additive genotype-risk factor effects, IV estimates using a weighted allele score had similar properties to estimates using multiple instruments. Under the correct conditions, multiple instrument analyses are a promising approach for Mendelian randomisation studies. Further research is required into multiple imputation methods to address missing data issues in IV estimation.

WNT16 influences bone mineral density, cortical bone thickness, bone strength, and osteoporotic fracture risk.

We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with cortical bone thickness (CBT) and bone mineral density (BMD) by performing two separate genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses for CBT in 3 cohorts comprising 5,878 European subjects and for BMD in 5 cohorts comprising 5,672 individuals. We then assessed selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for osteoporotic fracture in 2,023 cases and 3,740 controls. Association with CBT and forearm BMD was tested for ∼2.5 million SNPs in each cohort separately, and results were meta-analyzed using fixed effect meta-analysis. We identified a missense SNP (Thr>Ile; rs2707466) located in the WNT16 gene (7q31), associated with CBT (effect size of −0.11 standard deviations [SD] per C allele, P = 6.2×10−9). This SNP, as well as another nonsynonymous SNP rs2908004 (Gly>Arg), also had genome-wide significant association with forearm BMD (−0.14 SD per C allele, P = 2.3×10−12, and −0.16 SD per G allele, P = 1.2×10−15, respectively). Four genome-wide significant SNPs arising from BMD meta-analysis were tested for association with forearm fracture. SNP rs7776725 in FAM3C, a gene adjacent to WNT16, was associated with a genome-wide significant increased risk of forearm fracture (OR = 1.33, P = 7.3×10−9), with genome-wide suggestive signals from the two missense variants in WNT16 (rs2908004: OR = 1.22, P = 4.9×10−6 and rs2707466: OR = 1.22, P = 7.2×10−6). We next generated a homozygous mouse with targeted disruption of Wnt16. Female Wnt16−/− mice had 27% (P<0.001) thinner cortical bones at the femur midshaft, and bone strength measures were reduced between 43%–61% (6.5×10−13<P<5.9×10−4) at both femur and tibia, compared with their wild-type littermates. Natural variation in humans and targeted disruption in mice demonstrate that WNT16 is an important determinant of CBT, BMD, bone strength, and risk of fracture.

Habitual Levels of physical activity influence bone mass in 11-year-old children from the United Kingdom: findings from a large population-based cohort

We examined the influence of habitual levels of physical activity on bone mass in childhood by studying the relationship between accelerometer recordings and DXA parameters in 4457 11‐year‐old children. Physical activity was positively related to both BMD and bone size in fully adjusted models. However, further exploration revealed that this effect on bone size was modified by fat mass.

Intervertebral disc degeneration can predispose to anterior vertebral fractures in the thoracolumbar spine

Mechanical experiments on cadaveric thoracolumbar spine specimens showed that intervertebral disc degeneration was associated with reduced loading of the anterior vertebral body in upright postures. Reduced load bearing corresponded to locally reduced BMD and inferior trabecular architecture as measured by histomorphometry. Flexed postures concentrated loading on the weakened anterior vertebral body, leading to compressive failure at reduced load.

DNA Methylation Patterns in Cord Blood DNA and Body Size in Childhood

Background Epigenetic markings acquired in early life may have phenotypic consequences later in development through their role in transcriptional regulation with relevance to the developmental origins of diseases including obesity. The goal of this study was to investigate whether DNA methylation levels at birth are associated with body size later in childhood. Principal Findings A study design involving two birth cohorts was used to conduct transcription profiling followed by DNA methylation analysis in peripheral blood. Gene expression analysis was undertaken in 24 individuals whose biological samples and clinical data were collected at a mean ± standard deviation (SD) age of 12.35 (0.95) years, the upper and lower tertiles of body mass index (BMI) were compared with a mean (SD) BMI difference of 9.86 (2.37) kg/m2. This generated a panel of differentially expressed genes for DNA methylation analysis which was then undertaken in cord blood DNA in 178 individuals with body composition data prospectively collected at a mean (SD) age of 9.83 (0.23) years. Twenty-nine differentially expressed genes (>1.2-fold and p<10−4) were analysed to determine DNA methylation levels at 1–3 sites per gene. Five genes were unmethylated and DNA methylation in the remaining 24 genes was analysed using linear regression with bootstrapping. Methylation in 9 of the 24 (37.5%) genes studied was associated with at least one index of body composition (BMI, fat mass, lean mass, height) at age 9 years, although only one of these associations remained after correction for multiple testing (ALPL with height, p Corrected = 0.017). Conclusions DNA methylation patterns in cord blood show some association with altered gene expression, body size and composition in childhood. The observed relationship is correlative and despite suggestion of a mechanistic epigenetic link between in utero life and later phenotype, further investigation is required to establish causality.

High-Dose Estrogen Induces De Novo Medullary Bone Formation in Female Mice

It is well recognized that, in the mouse, high‐dose estrogen induces sclerosis within the shaft of long bones, an action that is largely thought to reflect increased osteoblastic cellular activity. We undertook to characterize this response in more detail, by performing a histologic analysis of the early changes induced by high‐dose estrogen in the tibial cavity of young intact female mice. Female mice were sacrificed immediately before or 4, 8, 12, or 24 days after commencing subcutaneous injections of 17β‐estradiol (500 μg/animal/week), and longitudinal tibial sections were subsequently examined. Estrogen was found to cause a rapid gain in cancellous bone, with cancellous bone volume increasing by ∼50% after 8 days, and by 5‐fold after 24 days. Analysis of cancellous double‐labeled surfaces revealed that this gain in bone reflected the emergence of new cancellous bone formation sites within the medullary cavity, rather than the reactivation and extension of formation over pre‐existing bone surfaces. Comparison of the time course of these changes between proximal and distal regions of the proximal tibial metaphysis suggested that these new cancellous formation sites appear as a rapid wave extending distally from the secondary spongiosa. Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) immunocytochemistry revealed that, by 12 days after estrogen administration, a population of strongly ALP positive cells had appeared throughout the marrow cavity. We conclude that, at the proximal tibial metaphysis of female mice, estrogen‐induced medullary sclerosis largely reflects a process of de novo medullary bone formation, possibly mediated by the generation of osteoblasts from bone marrow osteoprogenitor cells. (J Bone Miner Res 1999; 14: 178–186)

45-day mortality after 467,779 knee replacements for osteoarthritis from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales: an observational study.

BACKGROUND Understanding the risk factors for early death after knee replacement could help to reduce the risk of mortality after this procedure. We assessed secular trends in death within 45 days of knee replacement for osteoarthritis in England and Wales, with the aim of investigating whether any change that we recorded could be explained by alterations in modifiable perioperative factors. METHODS We took data for knee replacements done for osteoarthritis in England and Wales between April 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2011, from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales. Patient identifiers were used to link these data to the national mortality database and the Hospital Episode Statistics database to obtain details of death, sociodemographics, and comorbidity. We assessed mortality within 45 days by Kaplan-Meier analysis and assessed the role of patient and treatment factors by Cox proportional hazards models. FINDINGS 467,779 primary knee replacements were done to treat osteoarthritis during 9 years. 1183 patients died within 45 days of surgery, with a substantial secular decrease in mortality from 0·37% in 2003 to 0·20% in 2011, even after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity. The use of unicompartmental knee replacement was associated with substantially lower mortality than was total knee replacement (hazard ratio [HR] 0·32, 95% CI 0·19–0·54, p<0·0005). Several comorbidities were associated with increased mortality: myocardial infarction (HR 3·46, 95% CI 2·81–4·14, p<0·0005), cerebrovascular disease (3·35, 2·7–4·14, p<0·0005), moderate/severe liver disease (7·2, 3·93–13·21, p<0·0005), and renal disease (2·18, 1·76–2·69, p<0·0005). Modifiable perioperative risk factors, including surgical approach and thromboprophylaxis were not associated with mortality. INTERPRETATION Postoperative mortality after knee replacement has fallen substantially between 2003 and 2011. Efforts to further reduce mortality should concentrate more on older patients, those who are male and those with specific comorbidities, such as myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, liver disease, and renal disease. FUNDING National Joint Registry for England and Wales.

Genome-Wide Association Meta-Analysis of Cortical Bone Mineral Density Unravels Allelic Heterogeneity at the RANKL Locus and Potential Pleiotropic Effects on Bone

Previous genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified SNPs associated with areal bone mineral density (aBMD). However, this measure is influenced by several different skeletal parameters, such as periosteal expansion, cortical bone mineral density (BMDC) cortical thickness, trabecular number, and trabecular thickness, which may be under distinct biological and genetic control. We have carried out a GWA and replication study of BMDC, as measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT), a more homogenous and valid measure of actual volumetric bone density. After initial GWA meta-analysis of two cohorts (ALSPAC n = 999, aged ∼15 years and GOOD n = 935, aged ∼19 years), we attempted to replicate the BMDC associations that had p<1×10−5 in an independent sample of ALSPAC children (n = 2803) and in a cohort of elderly men (MrOS Sweden, n = 1052). The rs1021188 SNP (near RANKL) was associated with BMDC in all cohorts (overall p = 2×10−14, n = 5739). Each minor allele was associated with a decrease in BMDC of ∼0.14SD. There was also evidence for an interaction between this variant and sex (p = 0.01), with a stronger effect in males than females (at age 15, males −6.77mg/cm3 per C allele, p = 2×10−6; females −2.79 mg/cm3 per C allele, p = 0.004). Furthermore, in a preliminary analysis, the rs1021188 minor C allele was associated with higher circulating levels of sRANKL (p<0.005). We show this variant to be independent from the previously aBMD associated SNP (rs9594738) and possibly from a third variant in the same RANKL region, which demonstrates important allelic heterogeneity at this locus. Associations with skeletal parameters reflecting bone dimensions were either not found or were much less pronounced. This finding implicates RANKL as a locus containing variation associated with volumetric bone density and provides further insight into the mechanism by which the RANK/RANKL/OPG pathway may be involved in skeletal development.

Genome-wide association study of primary tooth eruption identifies pleiotropic loci associated with height and craniofacial distances

Twin and family studies indicate that the timing of primary tooth eruption is highly heritable, with estimates typically exceeding 80%. To identify variants involved in primary tooth eruption, we performed a population-based genome-wide association study of ‘age at first tooth’ and ‘number of teeth’ using 5998 and 6609 individuals, respectively, from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and 5403 individuals from the 1966 Northern Finland Birth Cohort (NFBC1966). We tested 2 446 724 SNPs imputed in both studies. Analyses were controlled for the effect of gestational age, sex and age of measurement. Results from the two studies were combined using fixed effects inverse variance meta-analysis. We identified a total of 15 independent loci, with 10 loci reaching genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) for ‘age at first tooth’ and 11 loci for ‘number of teeth’. Together, these associations explain 6.06% of the variation in ‘age of first tooth’ and 4.76% of the variation in ‘number of teeth’. The identified loci included eight previously unidentified loci, some containing genes known to play a role in tooth and other developmental pathways, including an SNP in the protein-coding region of BMP4 (rs17563, P = 9.080 × 10−17). Three of these loci, containing the genes HMGA2, AJUBA and ADK, also showed evidence of association with craniofacial distances, particularly those indexing facial width. Our results suggest that the genome-wide association approach is a powerful strategy for detecting variants involved in tooth eruption, and potentially craniofacial growth and more generally organ development.