Jon Michael Gran

Left ventricular mechanical dispersion by tissue Doppler imaging: a novel approach for identifying high-risk individuals with long QT syndrome

Aims The aim of this study was to investigate whether prolonged and dispersed myocardial contraction duration assessed by tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) may serve as risk markers for cardiac events (documented arrhythmia, syncope, and cardiac arrest) in patients with long QT syndrome (LQTS). Methods and results Seventy-three patients with genetically confirmed LQTS (nine double- and 33 single-mutation carriers with previous cardiac events and 31 single-mutation carriers without events) were studied. Myocardial contraction duration was prolonged in each group of LQTS patients compared with 20 healthy controls (P < 0.001). Contraction duration was longer in single-mutation carriers with previous cardiac events compared with those without (0.46 ± 0.06 vs. 0.40 ± 0.06 s, P = 0.001). Prolonged contraction duration could better identify cardiac events compared with corrected QT (QTc) interval in single-mutation carriers [area under curve by receiver-operating characteristic analysis 0.77 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.65–0.89] vs. 0.66 (95% CI 0.52–0.79)]. Dispersion of contraction was more pronounced in single-mutation carriers with cardiac events compared with those without (0.048 ± 0.018 vs. 0.031 ± 0.019 s, P = 0.001). Conclusion Dispersion of myocardial contraction assessed by TDI was increased in LQTS patients. Prolonged contraction duration was superior to QTc for risk assessment. These new methods can easily be implemented in clinical routine and may improve clinical management of LQTS patients.

Causality, mediation and time: a dynamic viewpoint.

Summary. Time dynamics are often ignored in causal modelling. Clearly, causality must operate in time and we show how this corresponds to a mechanistic, or system, understanding of causality. The established counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects depend on an ability to manipulate the mediator which may not hold in practice, and we argue that a mechanistic view may be better. Graphical representations based on local independence graphs and dynamic path analysis are used to facilitate communication as well as providing an overview of the dynamic relations ‘at a glance’. The relationship between causality as understood in a mechanistic and in an interventionist sense is discussed. An example using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study is presented.

Relative validity of fruit and vegetable intake estimated from an FFQ, using carotenoid and flavonoid biomarkers and the method of triads

The aim of the present study was to validate the intakes of fruit, juice and vegetables from an FFQ. In sub-study I (n 147), intakes from the FFQ were evaluated against 7 d weighed food records (WR) and plasma carotenoid concentrations, whereas in sub-study II (n 85), the intakes were evaluated against plasma carotenoid concentrations and amounts of flavonoids in 24 h urine samples. Relative validity was evaluated by comparing median intakes, estimating correlation coefficients and validity coefficients using the method of triads. In sub-study I, we observed no significant difference in daily median fruit intake between the FFQ and the WR, whereas the intake of vegetables was higher from the FFQ than from the WR. The correlations between intakes from the FFQ and the WR ranged from 0·31 to 0·58. In sub-study II, the intakes of fruit and vegetables correlated significantly with plasma carotenoid concentrations and urinary flavonoids. The validity coefficients for the intakes of fruit and vegetables from the FFQ ranged from 0·61 to 0·88 in sub-study I and from 0·60 to 0·94 in sub-study II. In summary, based on the associations observed between intakes from the FFQ and the biomarkers and the FFQ validity coefficients, the FFQ was found valid and suitable for ranking individuals according to their usual intake of fruit, juice and vegetables.

Bimodal Distribution of Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids in Schizophrenia Suggests Two Endophenotypes of the Disorder

BACKGROUND There is conflicting evidence of whether polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in red blood cells are bimodally distributed in schizophrenia. The purpose of this study was to examine the distribution of PUFA, as well as its links to plausible causal factors. METHODS A 16-week cohort study and a case-control study as part of a randomized controlled trial. Ninety-nine patients with DSM-IV schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or schizophreniform disorder, aged 18 to 39, were consecutively included at admission to psychiatric departments of nine Norwegian hospitals. Fatty acids were measured in 97 of these patients and in 20 healthy control subjects. The primary outcome measure was the bimodality test statistic T, assessed by a χ(2) test of the likelihood of one or two normal distributions of PUFA. RESULTS At baseline, levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids were highly significantly bimodally distributed among patients. One third of patients constituted a group (low PUFA) who had PUFA levels at one fifth (p < .001) of those in high PUFA patients and healthy control subjects, which did not differ. Bimodality was mainly accounted for by docosahexaenoic acid and arachidonic acid. Bimodality was confirmed after 16 weeks. α-tocopherol was a robust predictor of PUFA at both occasions. Desaturase and elongase indexes differed between PUFA groups. Smoking, gender, antipsychotic medication, and dietary factors did not explain the bimodal distribution. CONCLUSIONS Red blood cell PUFA were bimodally distributed among acutely ill patients with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder. Endogenous deficiencies of redox regulation or synthesis of long-chain PUFA in the low PUFA group may explain our findings.

Estimating influenza-related excess mortality and reproduction numbers for seasonal influenza in Norway, 1975-2004.

Influenza can be a serious, sometimes deadly, disease, especially for people in high-risk groups such as the elderly and patients with underlying, severe disease. In this paper we estimated the influenza-related excess mortality in Norway for 1975-2004, comparing it with dominant virus types and estimates of the reproduction number. Analysis was done using Poisson regression, explaining the weekly all-cause mortality by rates of reported influenza-like illness, together with markers for seasonal and year-to-year variation. The estimated excess mortality was the difference between the observed and predicted mortality, removing the influenza contribution from the prediction. We estimated the overall influenza-related excess mortality as 910 deaths per season, or 2.08% of the overall deaths. Age-grouped analyses indicated that the major part of the excess mortality occurred in the > or =65 years age group, but that there was also a significant contribution to mortality in the 0-4 years age group. Estimates of the reproduction number R, ranged from about 1 to 1.69.

Increase of regulatory T cells in ileal mucosa of untreated pediatric Crohn's disease patients

Abstract Background. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) of pediatric and adult onset differs in several aspects although little knowledge exists about pathogenic disparity. Regulatory T cells (Tregs) characterized as CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ are modulators of gut homeostasis, but their role in human IBD remains unclear. Objective. To evaluate the mucosal distribution of Foxp3+ and CD25+ cells in untreated pediatric IBD patients at the time of diagnosis. Material and methods. Untreated pediatric (n = 14) and adult (n = 12) Crohns disease (CD) patients were prospectively included together with age-matched symptomatic controls. Colonic and ileal mucosal biopsies collected at diagnosis were studied by immunohistochemistry for enumeration of T cells and for mucosal expression of Foxp3 and CD25. Multicolor immunofluorescence staining was performed in situ to phenotype Foxp3+ cells as Tregs and characterize the CD25+ cells. Results. The density of mucosal T cells displayed only small variations, while that of Foxp3+ cells and CD25+ cells was increased in CD patients. Multicolor immunofluorescence showed that most CD25+ cells were macrophages. Interestingly, in the ileum of pediatric CD patients the density of Foxp3+ cells was significantly higher than in adult CD patients. Co-expression of Foxp3 and CD25, as well as Foxp3 and CTLA-4, indicated that the Foxp3+ cells were Tregs. Conclusion. Mucosal numbers of Foxp3+ Tregs and activated (CD25+) macrophages are elevated in both pediatric and adult ileal CD. The greater increase of ileal Foxp3+ Tregs in pediatric CD than in adult CD might contribute to the relatively less frequent phenotype of isolated ileal enteritis in CD children.

Growth rates in epidemic models: Application to a model for HIV/AIDS progression

The most common quantity used to describe the growth of an epidemic when modelling infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number R0. While R0 is most appropriate for epidemics with short-lasting infections, long-lasting infections such as HIV/AIDS may call for the use of growth rates with other properties. For a group of multi-state compartment models we define both R0, the actual reproduction number Ra(t), and the intrinsic growth rate r. We study the relationship between these different reproduction numbers and growth rates and take a brief look at how they could be estimated from actual observed data. The work is illustrated by a model for HIV/AIDS progression among homosexual men in England and Wales. We conclude that other measures of growth, in addition to R0, give important supplementary information.

Can we believe the DAGs? A comment on the relationship between causal DAGs and mechanisms

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) play a large role in the modern approach to causal inference. DAGs describe the relationship between measurements taken at various discrete times including the effect of interventions. The causal mechanisms, on the other hand, would naturally be assumed to be a continuous process operating over time in a cause–effect fashion. How does such immediate causation, that is causation occurring over very short time intervals, relate to DAGs constructed from discrete observations? We introduce a time-continuous model and simulate discrete observations in order to judge the relationship between the DAG and the immediate causal model. We find that there is no clear relationship; indeed the Bayesian network described by the DAG may not relate to the causal model. Typically, discrete observations of a process will obscure the conditional dependencies that are represented in the underlying mechanistic model of the process. It is therefore doubtful whether DAGs are always suited to describe causal relationships unless time is explicitly considered in the model. We relate the issues to mechanistic modeling by using the concept of local (in)dependence. An example using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study is presented.

Causal inference in multi-state models-sickness absence and work for 1145 participants after work rehabilitation

BackgroundMulti-state models, as an extension of traditional models in survival analysis, have proved to be a flexible framework for analysing the transitions between various states of sickness absence and work over time. In this paper we study a cohort of work rehabilitation participants and analyse their subsequent sickness absence using Norwegian registry data on sickness benefits. Our aim is to study how detailed individual covariate information from questionnaires explain differences in sickness absence and work, and to use methods from causal inference to assess the effect of interventions to reduce sickness absence. Examples of the latter are to evaluate the use of partial versus full time sick leave and to estimate the effect of a cooperation agreement on a more inclusive working life.MethodsCovariate adjusted transition intensities are estimated using Cox proportional hazards and Aalen additive hazards models, while the effect of interventions are assessed using methods of inverse probability weighting and G-computation.ResultsResults from covariate adjusted analyses show great differences in sickness absence and work for patients with assumed high risk and low risk covariate characteristics, for example based on age, type of work, income, health score and type of diagnosis. Causal analyses show small effects of partial versus full time sick leave and a positive effect of having a cooperation agreement, with about 5 percent points higher probability of returning to work.ConclusionsDetailed covariate information is important for explaining transitions between different states of sickness absence and work, also for patient specific cohorts. Methods for causal inference can provide the needed tools for going from covariate specific estimates to population average effects in multi-state models, and identify causal parameters with a straightforward interpretation based on interventions.

Maternal inheritance does not predict cholesterol levels in children with familial hypercholesterolemia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Pregnancy exerts metabolic changes with increasing levels of total cholesterol and triglycerides as prominent features. Maternal hypercholesterolemia may thus contribute to an unfavorable in utero environment potentially influencing the susceptibility of adult cardiovascular disease in the offspring. We investigated the impact of maternal familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) on pre-treatment plasma lipids and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in non-statin treated FH children. METHODS Children with FH (n = 1063) aged between 0 and 19 years were included. Of these, 500 had inherited FH maternally, 563 paternally and 97.6% had a verified FH mutation. Information about inheritance, mutation type and pretreatment levels of blood lipids and CRP was retrieved from the medical records. RESULTS There were no significant differences in the plasma levels of lipids and C-reactive protein (CRP) in children with maternal FH compared with children with paternal FH, (0.12 ≤ P ≤ 0.90). Independent of which parent transmitted FH, children with LDL receptor negative mutations had significantly higher levels of total and LDL cholesterol and Apolipoprotein (Apo) B, and lower levels of HDL cholesterol and ApoA1, compared with children with other LDL receptor mutations (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Maternal inheritance of FH was not associated with detectable long-term effects in the offsprings phenotype measured by adverse lipid profiles and increased CRP levels, whereas a LDL receptor negative mutation was associated with an unfavorably phenotype in FH offspring. Our findings do not support the fetal origin of adulthood disease hypothesis, while at the same time not excluding the hypothesis since other pathways leading to atherosclerosis may be involved.