Jon Minton

The Geography of a rapid rise in elderly mortality in England and Wales, 2014-15

Abstract Since at least the early 1900s almost all affluent nations in the world have continually experienced improvements in human longevity. Using ONS mid‐year population and deaths estimates for Local Authorities for England and Wales, we show that these improvements have recently reversed. We estimate that in England and Wales there were 39,074 more deaths in the year to July 2015 as compared to the year to July 2014 (32,208 of these were of individuals aged 80+). We demonstrate that these increases occurred almost everywhere geographically; in poor and affluent areas, in rural and urban areas. The implications of our findings are profound given what has come before them, combined with the current political climate of austerity. Highlights2015 saw rising mortality rates for all ages but especially the elderly.We estimate an additional 39,074 deaths compared to the year before.There is little geographical pattern to the relative changes in mortality rates.Few explanations we tested seem to explain these increases.

Recent cohort effects in suicide in Scotland: a legacy of the 1980s?

Background Mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to England and Wales, even after accounting for deprivation. This ‘excess’ mortality is partly due to higher mortality from alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, violence and suicide (particularly in young adults). This study investigated whether cohort effects from exposure to neoliberal politics from the 1980s might explain the recent trends in suicide in Scotland. Methods We analysed suicide deaths data from 1974 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects. Results Suicide was most common in young adults (aged around 25–40 years) living in deprived areas, with a younger peak in men. The peak age for suicide fell around 1990, especially for men for whom it dropped quickly from around 50 to 30 years. There was evidence of an increased risk of suicide for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially among men living in the most deprived areas (of around 30%). The cohort at highest risk occurred earlier in the most deprived areas, 1965–1969 compared with 1970–1974. Conclusions The risk of suicide increased in Scotland for those born between 1960 and 1980, especially for men living in the most deprived areas, which resulted in a rise in age-standardised rates for suicide among young adults during the 1990s. This is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to neoliberal politics created a delayed negative health impact.

Visualising and quantifying ‘excess deaths’ in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK and the rest of Western Europe

Background Scotland has higher mortality rates than the rest of Western Europe (rWE), with more cardiovascular disease and cancer among older adults; and alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and violence among younger adults. Methods We obtained sex, age-specific and year-specific all-cause mortality rates for Scotland and other populations, and explored differences in mortality both visually and numerically. Results Scotlands age-specific mortality was higher than the rest of the UK (rUK) since 1950, and has increased. Between the 1950s and 2000s, ‘excess deaths’ by age 80 per 100 000 population associated with living in Scotland grew from 4341 to 7203 compared with rUK, and from 4132 to 8828 compared with rWE. UK-wide mortality risk compared with rWE also increased, from 240 ‘excess deaths’ in the 1950s to 2320 in the 2000s. Cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s throughout the UK including Scotland had lower mortality risk than comparable rWE populations, especially for males. Mortality rates were higher in Scotland than rUK and rWE among younger adults from the 1990s onwards suggesting an age–period interaction. Conclusions Worsening mortality among young adults in the past 30 years reversed a relative advantage evident for those born between 1950 and 1960. Compared with rWE, Scotland and rUK have followed similar trends but Scotland has started from a worse position and had worse working age–period effects in the 1990s and 2000s.

The suburbanisation of poverty in British cities, 2004-16: extent, processes and nature

ABSTRACT This paper tracks changes in relative centralisation and relative concentration of poverty for the 25 largest British cities, analysing change for poor and non-poor groups separately, and examining parallel changes in spatial segregation. The paper confirms that poverty is suburbanising, at least in the larger cities, although poverty remains over-represented in inner locations. Suburbanisation is occurring through both the reduction in low income populations in inner locations and the growth non-poor groups in these places, consistent with a process of displacement. Relative centralisation of poverty has fallen more stronglythan relative concentration of poverty, as the outward shift of poorer groups leaves them still living in denser neighbourhoods on average. The paper also shows that spatial segregation (unevenness) declined at the same time although it remains to be seen whether this indicates a long-term shift to less segregated urban forms or a transitional outcome before new forms of segregation emerge around suburban poverty concentrations.

Driving Segregation: Age, Gender and Emerging Inequalities

Posing a challenge to transport planning and urban development, Minton and Clark investigate the long-term impacts that a deeply embedded preference for car travel may have for an ageing society. Using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey, the authors graphically explore relationships between generational membership, age, gender and social class. Data visualisation indicates that declining car access and licence holding may be more a response to economic vulnerability than a proactive choice towards more sustainable and active travel. As poor mobility and accessibility can further amplify the intergenerational (dis)advantage, lower levels of licence holding and car ownership—particularly apparent in the millennial generation—invite a re-evaluation of policy priorities to support improved public transport and active travel for healthier ageing.

Rethinking one of criminology's 'brute facts': the age-crime curve and the crime drop in Scotland

Examining annual variation in the age–crime curve as a way to better understand the recent crime drop, this paper explores how the age distribution of convicted offending changed for men and women in Scotland between 1989 and 2011. This analysis employs shaded contour plots as a method of visualizing annual change in the age–crime curve. Similar to recent findings from the USA, we observed falling rates of convicted offending for young people, primarily owing to lower rates of convicted offending for young men. In contrast to the US literature we also find increases in the rate of convicted offending for those in their mid-twenties to mid-forties, which are relatively greater for women than men. Analysis of annual change shows different phases in the progression of these trends, with falls in prevalence during the 1990s reflecting lower rates of convictions for acquisitive crime, but falls between 2007 and 2011 being spread across multiple crime types. Explanations of the crime drop in Scotland and elsewhere must be able to account for different patterns of change across age, sex, crime type and time.

Reconsidering the Relationship between Air Pollution and Deprivation

This paper critically examines the relationship between air pollution and deprivation. We argue that focusing on a particular economic or social model of urban development might lead one to erroneously expect all cities to converge towards a particular universal norm. A naive market sorting model, for example, would predict that poor households will eventually be sorted into high pollution areas, leading to a positive relationship between air pollution and deprivation. If, however, one considers a wider set of theoretical perspectives, the anticipated relationship between air pollution and deprivation becomes more complex and idiosyncratic. Specifically, we argue the relationship between pollution and deprivation can only be made sense of by considering processes of risk perception, path dependency, gentrification and urbanization. Rather than expecting all areas to eventually converge to some universal norm, we should expect the differences in the relationship between air pollution and deprivation across localities to persist. Mindful of these insights, we propose an approach to modeling which does not impose a geographically fixed relationship. Results for Scotland reveal substantial variations in the observed relationships over space and time, supporting our argument.