Jonas Manjer

General and Abdominal Adiposity and Risk of Death in Europe

BACKGROUND Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death. METHODS We examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We used a Cox regression analysis, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height. RESULTS During a mean follow-up of 9.7 years, 14,723 participants died. The lowest risks of death related to BMI were observed at a BMI of 25.3 for men and 24.3 for women. After adjustment for BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were strongly associated with the risk of death. Relative risks among men and women in the highest quintile of waist circumference were 2.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80 to 2.33) and 1.78 (95% CI, 1.56 to 2.04), respectively, and in the highest quintile of waist-to-hip ratio, the relative risks were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.53 to 1.84) and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.66), respectively. BMI remained significantly associated with the risk of death in models that included waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that both general adiposity and abdominal adiposity are associated with the risk of death and support the use of waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI in assessing the risk of death.

The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study: representativity, cancer incidence and mortality in participants and non-participants

In order to investigate potential selection bias in population‐based cohort studies, participants (n  = 28 098) and non‐participants (n  = 40 807) in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS) were compared with regard to cancer incidence and mortality. MDCS participants were also compared with participants in a mailed health survey with regard to subjective health, socio‐demographic characteristics and lifestyle. Cancer incidence prior to recruitment was lower in non‐participants, Cox proportional hazards analysis yielded a relative risk (RR) with a 95% confidence interval of 0.95 (0.90–1.00), compared with participants. During recruitment, cancer incidence was higher in non‐participants, RR: 1.08 (1.01–1.17). Mortality was higher in non‐participants both during, 3.55 (3.13–4.03), and following the recruitment period, 2.21 (2.03–2.41). The proportion reporting good health was higher in the MDCS than in the mailed health survey (where 74.6% participated), but the socio‐demographic structure was similar. We conclude that mortality is higher in non‐participants than in participants during recruitment and follow‐up. It is also suggested that non‐participants may have a lower cancer incidence prior to recruitment but a higher incidence during the recruitment period.

Fruit and Vegetable Intake and Overall Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

BACKGROUND It is widely believed that cancer can be prevented by high intake of fruits and vegetables. However, inconsistent results from many studies have not been able to conclusively establish an inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and overall cancer risk. METHODS We conducted a prospective analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to assess relationships between intake of total fruits, total vegetables, and total fruits and vegetables combined and cancer risk during 1992-2000. Detailed information on the dietary habit and lifestyle variables of the cohort was obtained. Cancer incidence and mortality data were ascertained, and hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. Analyses were also conducted for cancers associated with tobacco and alcohol after stratification for tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking. RESULTS Of the initial 142 605 men and 335 873 women included in the study, 9604 men and 21 000 women were identified with cancer after a median follow-up of 8.7 years. The crude cancer incidence rates were 7.9 per 1000 person-years in men and 7.1 per 1000 person-years in women. Associations between reduced cancer risk and increased intake of total fruits and vegetables combined and total vegetables for the entire cohort were similar (200 g/d increased intake of fruits and vegetables combined, HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.96 to 0.99; 100 g/d increased intake of total vegetables, HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97 to 0.99); intake of fruits showed a weaker inverse association (100 g/d increased intake of total fruits, HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.00). The reduced risk of cancer associated with high vegetable intake was restricted to women (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97 to 0.99). Stratification by alcohol intake suggested a stronger reduction in risk in heavy drinkers and was confined to cancers caused by smoking and alcohol. CONCLUSIONS A very small inverse association between intake of total fruits and vegetables and cancer risk was observed in this study. Given the small magnitude of the observed associations, caution should be applied in their interpretation.

Rate of over-diagnosis of breast cancer 15 years after end of Malmö mammographic screening trial: follow-up study

Abstract Objective To evaluate the rate of over-diagnosis of breast cancer 15 years after the end of the Malmö mammographic screening trial. Design Follow-up study. Setting Malmö, Sweden. Subjects 42 283 women aged 45-69 years at randomisation. Interventions Screening for breast cancer with mammography or not (controls). Screening was offered at the end of the randomisation design to both groups aged 45-54 at randomisation but not to groups aged 55-69 at randomisation. Main outcome measures Rate of over-diagnosis of breast cancer (in situ and invasive), calculated as incidence in the invited and control groups, during period of randomised design (period 1), during period after randomised design ended (period 2), and at end of follow-up. Results In women aged 55-69 years at randomisation the relative rates of over-diagnosis of breast cancer (95% confidence intervals) were 1.32 (1.14 to 1.53) for period 1, 0.92 (0.79 to 1.06) for period 2, and 1.10 (0.99 to 1.22) at the end of follow-up. Conclusion Conclusions on over-diagnosis of breast cancer in the Malmö mammographic screening trial can be drawn mainly for women aged 55-69 years at randomisation whose control groups were never screened. Fifteen years after the trial ended the rate of over-diagnosis of breast cancer was 10% in this age group.

Fruit, vegetables, and colorectal cancer risk: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND A high consumption of fruit and vegetables is possibly associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the findings to date are inconsistent. OBJECTIVE We examined the relation between self-reported usual consumption of fruit and vegetables and the incidence of CRC. DESIGN In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 452,755 subjects (131,985 men and 320,770 women) completed a dietary questionnaire in 1992-2000 and were followed up for cancer incidence and mortality until 2006. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS After an average follow-up of 8.8 y, 2,819 incident CRC cases were reported. Consumption of fruit and vegetables was inversely associated with CRC in a comparison of the highest with the lowest EPIC-wide quintile of consumption (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.00; P for trend = 0.04), particularly with colon cancer risk (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63, 0.91; P for trend < 0.01). Only after exclusion of the first 2 y of follow-up were these findings corroborated by calibrated continuous analyses for a 100-g increase in consumption: HRs of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.00; P = 0.04) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.99; P = 0.02), respectively. The association between fruit and vegetable consumption and CRC risk was inverse in never and former smokers, but positive in current smokers. This modifying effect was found for fruit and vegetables combined and for vegetables alone (P for interaction < 0.01 for both). CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that a high consumption of fruit and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of CRC, especially of colon cancer. This effect may depend on smoking status.

Circulating sex hormones and breast cancer risk factors in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of 13 studies.

Background:Breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women is positively associated with circulating concentrations of oestrogens and androgens, but the determinants of these hormones are not well understood.Methods:Cross-sectional analyses of breast cancer risk factors and circulating hormone concentrations in more than 6000 postmenopausal women controls in 13 prospective studies.Results:Concentrations of all hormones were lower in older than younger women, with the largest difference for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), whereas sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was higher in the older women. Androgens were lower in women with bilateral ovariectomy than in naturally postmenopausal women, with the largest difference for free testosterone. All hormones were higher in obese than lean women, with the largest difference for free oestradiol, whereas SHBG was lower in obese women. Smokers of 15+ cigarettes per day had higher levels of all hormones than non-smokers, with the largest difference for testosterone. Drinkers of 20+ g alcohol per day had higher levels of all hormones, but lower SHBG, than non-drinkers, with the largest difference for DHEAS. Hormone concentrations were not strongly related to age at menarche, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy or family history of breast cancer.Conclusion:Sex hormone concentrations were strongly associated with several established or suspected risk factors for breast cancer, and may mediate the effects of these factors on breast cancer risk.

Anthropometric Measures, Body Mass Index and Pancreatic Cancer: a Pooled Analysis from the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan)

BACKGROUND Obesity has been proposed as a risk factor for pancreatic cancer. METHODS Pooled data were analyzed from the National Cancer Institute Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) to study the association between prediagnostic anthropometric measures and risk of pancreatic cancer. PanScan applied a nested case-control study design and included 2170 cases and 2209 control subjects. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression for cohort-specific quartiles of body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]), weight, height, waist circumference, and waist to hip ratio as well as conventional BMI categories (underweight, <18.5; normal weight, 18.5-24.9; overweight, 25.0-29.9; obese, 30.0-34.9; and severely obese, > or = 35.0). Models were adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS In all of the participants, a positive association between increasing BMI and risk of pancreatic cancer was observed (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest BMI quartile, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.12-1.58; P(trend) < .001). In men, the adjusted OR for pancreatic cancer for the highest vs lowest quartile of BMI was 1.33 (95% CI, 1.04-1.69; P(trend) < .03), and in women it was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.05-1.70; P(trend) = .01). Increased waist to hip ratio was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in women (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest quartile, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.31-2.69; P(trend) = .003) but less so in men. CONCLUSIONS These findings provide strong support for a positive association between BMI and pancreatic cancer risk. In addition, centralized fat distribution may increase pancreatic cancer risk, especially in women.

Prospective study of IGF-I, IGF-binding proteins, and breast cancer risk, in northern and southern Sweden.

Objective: To examine the possible relationships of breast cancer risk to prediagnostic plasma levels of insulin; insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I); and IGF-binding proteins -1, -2, and -3. Methods: Within two prospective cohorts in Umeå and Malmö we measured plasma concentrations of insulin, IGF-I, and IGFBPs for a total of 513 incident breast cancer cases and 987 matched controls. Results: Globally, risk was unassociated with levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-3, or IGF-I adjusted for IGFBP-3. When breaking down the analysis by subgroups of age at blood donation, an increase in risk was observed for increasing levels of IGF-I in women aged 55 or older, in the Umeå cohort only (odds ratios of 1.00, 1.73, 1.76, 1.90; ptrend = 0.05). This effect weakened, however, when the analysis was restricted to subjects who did not use exogenous hormones for the treatment of menopausal symptoms. Levels of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were not related to risk in younger women, recruited before age 50, contrary to observations from previous studies. In a subcohort where blood samples had been collected after at least four hours of fasting, breast cancer risk showed no clear associations with levels of insulin, IGFBP-1, or IGFBP-2. Conclusions: Our results do not confirm earlier findings of an association of plasma IGF-I levels with breast cancer risk especially in young women, but suggest a possible association with postmenopausal breast cancer risk, possibly among ERT/HRT users only. Our results do not support the hypothesis that elevated plasma insulin levels, and reduced levels of IGFBP-1 and IGFBP-2, are associated with increased breast cancer risk.

Lifetime and baseline alcohol intake and risk of colon and rectal cancers in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC)

Alcohol consumption may be associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but the epidemiological evidence for an association with specific anatomical subsites, types of alcoholic beverages and current vs. lifetime alcohol intake is inconsistent. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 478,732 study subjects free of cancer at enrolment between 1992 and 2000 were followed up for an average of 6.2 years, during which 1,833 CRC cases were observed. Detailed information on consumption of alcoholic beverages at baseline (all cases) and during lifetime (1,447 CRC cases, 69% of the cohort) was collected from questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the alcohol‐CRC association. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, lifetime alcohol intake was significantly positively associated to CRC risk (hazard ratio, HR = 1.08, 95%CI = 1.04–1.12 for 15 g/day increase), with higher cancer risks observed in the rectum (HR = 1.12, 95%CI = 1.06–1.18) than distal colon (HR = 1.08, 95%CI = 1.01–1.16), and proximal colon (HR = 1.02, 95%CI = 0.92–1.12). Similar results were observed for baseline alcohol intake. When assessed by alcoholic beverages at baseline, the CRC risk for beer (HR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.08–1.77 for 20–39.9 vs. 0.1–2.9 g/day) was higher than wine (HR = 1.21, 95%CI = 1.02–1.44), although the two risk estimates were not significantly different from each other. Higher HRs for baseline alcohol were observed for low levels of folate intake (1.13, 95%CI = 1.06–1.20 for 15 g/day increase) compared to high folate intake (1.03, 95%CI = 0.98–1.09). In this large European cohort, both lifetime and baseline alcohol consumption increase colon and rectum cancer risk, with more apparent risk increases for alcohol intakes greater than 30 g/day.

Physical Activity and Risk of Colon and Rectal Cancers: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

We investigated several aspects of the role of physical activity in colon and rectal cancer etiology that remain unclear in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer. This cohort of 413,044 men and women had 1,094 cases of colon and 599 cases of rectal cancer diagnosed during an average of 6.4 years of follow-up. We analyzed baseline data on occupational, household, and recreational activity to examine associations by type of activity, tumor subsite, body mass index (BMI), and energy intake. The multivariate hazard ratio for colon cancer was 0.78 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.59-1.03] among the most active participants when compared with the inactive, with evidence of a dose-response effect (Ptrend = 0.04). For right-sided colon tumors, the risk was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.43-1.00) in the highest quartile of activity with evidence of a linear trend (Ptrend = 0.004). Active participants with a BMI under 25 had a risk of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.39-1.01) for colon cancer compared with the inactive. Finally, an interaction between BMI and activity (Pinteraction = 0.03) was observed for right-sided colon cancers; among moderately active and active participants with a BMI under 25, a risk of 0.38 (95% CI, 0.21-0.68) was found as compared with inactive participants with BMI >30. No comparable decreased risks were observed for rectal cancer for any type of physical activity for any subgroup analyses or interactions considered. We found that physical activity reduced colon cancer risk, specifically for right-sided tumors and for lean participants, but not rectal cancer. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2006;15(12):2398–407)