Jonas Nordström

Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we for-mulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The micro-economic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO2 tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corre-sponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent.

The impact of seasonal unit roots and vector ARMA modeling on forecasting monthly tourism flows

The effect of imposing different numbers of unit roots on forecasting accuracy is examined using univariate ARMA models. To see whether additional information improves forecasting accuracy and increases the informative forecast horizon, the authors cross-relate the time series for inbound tourism in Sweden for different visitor categories and estimate vector ARMA models. The mean-squared forecast error for different filters indicates that models in which unit roots are imposed at all frequencies have the smallest forecast errors. The results from the vector ARMA models with all roots imposed indicate that the informative forecast horizon is greater than for the univariate models. Out-of-sample evaluations indicate, however, that the univariate modelling approach may be preferable.

A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels

Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.

The Impact of Tax Reforms Designed to Encourage Healthier Grain Consumption

In this paper, we simulate the effects of tax reforms aimed at encouraging healthier grain consumption. We use a rich data set on household grain consumption in 2003 from the market research institute GfK Sweden, combined with information on the nutritional content of the consumption. We estimate behavioral parameters, which are used to simulate the impact on the average household of tax reforms entailing either a subsidy on commodities particularly rich in fiber or a subsidy of the fiber density in grain products. Our results suggest that to direct the fiber intake towards nutritional recommendations, reforms with a substantial impact on consumer prices are required. Regardless of the type of subsidy implemented, the increase in the intake of fiber is accompanied by unwanted increases in nutrients that are often overconsumed: fat, salt and sugar. Funding the subsidies by taxing these nutrients, or less healthy commodities, helps to counteract such developments.

Does Easily Accessible Nutritional Labelling Increase Consumption of Healthy Meals away from Home? A Field Experiment Measuring the Impact of a Point-of-Purchase Healthy Symbol on Lunch Sales

Abstract This paper analyses the effect on meal consumption away from home of a point-of-purchase healthy symbol. We base the analysis on a field experiment in a lunch restaurant. Our results suggest that meal consumption does not increase if the meal is labelled with a healthy symbol. Also, the mean nutritional content of meals consumed seems unaffected by the introduction of a healthy-labelled meal on the menu. Even if easily accessible and understood, menu labelling therefore seems inefficient in promoting healthier meal choices. Factors influencing meal consumption are meal ingredients and the order of the meal on the menu.

Economic Policies for Healthier Food Intake: The Impact on Different Household Categories

This paper simulates the impact across household types of fully funded tax reforms designed to increase consumers’ fiber intake from grain consumption. Our results suggest that household types with the highest initial consumption share of fiber-rich products—i.e., households without children (seniors, couples without children, and single women without children)—experience the highest increase in fiber intake from these reforms. However, they also experience high increases in unhealthy nutrients from the reforms, making the net health effects difficult to evaluate. Seniors and couples without children also gain most financially, paying less food taxes and facing, depending on the reform, either a lower price level than before the reform or a lower increase in the price level than the average household. These household types also face the lowest initial price level. Households with the lowest initial consumption share of fiber-rich products—families with children—appear to gain the least financially from the reforms: they pay more food taxes and face relatively high increases in price levels. Further, in general they experience an increase in fiber intake smaller than that of the average household. However, they do generally see reductions in the intake of added sugar, and in many cases saturated fat, which positively affects the health of families with children, who often overconsume these nutrients.

A Bivariate Integer Valued Allocation Model for Guest Nights in Hotels and Cottages

The number of Norwegian guest nights in Swedish hotels and cottages is studied. Aggregation of an integer-valued AR(1) model and a two-stage demand model underlies the empirical results. The parameters in the model are check-out probability, mean check-in and the probability of selecting the hotel alternative. These parameters are specified to depend on economic variables implied by demand analysis. Via the probability of selecting a hotel, the empirical results indicate a substitution towards less expensive accommodation as the Swedish price level increases. For the check-out probability, an increase in the cottage price reduces the probability for staying another night in cottage, whereas an increase in the hotel price indicates a decrease in the check-out probability for hotel.

Estimating and predicting international tourism demand in Sweden.

In this study, we consider a dynamic demand model for international tourism. The model is used to estimate separate demand functions for hotel and cottage visitors from different countries, with a multivariate structural time series model. Among other things, the estimated models are used to simulate the effects on international tourism demand in Sweden of an increase in the value added tax on typical tourism products. The results reveal that the price sensitivity differs considerably between various visitor groups. The largest effect is found for Norwegian visitors, while there is no significant effect for Danish ones. The forecast accuracy of the demand model is also evaluated. The results indicate that a pure structural time series model performs as well as a model with explanatory variables.

The impact of price reductions on individuals' choice of healthy meals away from home

Food high in energy but low in nutritional value is an important contributor to several serious illnesses, and one type of food that is particularly high in energy but low in nutrition is food consumed away from home. In this paper, we examine the demand and willingness to pay for healthy, Keyhole-labelled meals. A Keyhole-labelled meal is particularly low in energy, fat, sugar and salt, but particularly high in fibre. The results suggest that to get the majority of individuals to choose the healthy option regularly it would be necessary to alter the relative price between healthy and less healthy meals. Generally groups of individuals with a poor nutritional intake require a larger compensation (subsidy) before they choose the healthy alternative. About one third of respondents would choose the healthy option regularly if the prices for a healthy and less healthy meal were the same. In particular groups of individuals who already have a relatively good nutritional intake would select the healthy option. Groups with a generally poor nutritional intake (men and individuals with lower education and lower income) would gain health benefits from a subsidy of Keyhole-labelled meals.

The Impact of Meal Attributes and Nudging on Healthy Meal Consumption — Evidence from a Lunch Restaurant Field Experiment

We use a field experiment in a lunch restaurant to analyze how meal attributes and a “nudge” impact healthy labeled meal consumption. The nudge consists of increasing the salience of healthy labeled meals by placing them at the top of the menu. We find that certain meal attributes (e.g. poultry and red meat) greatly increase both sales and the market share of the healthy labeled meal. We conclude that a careful design of the healthy food supply may be efficient in encouraging healthier meal choices, e.g. supplying healthy labeled versions of popular conventional meals. We find no impact on healthy labeled meal sales from the nudge.