Jonas Østergaard Nielsen

From teleconnection to telecoupling: taking stock of an emerging framework in land system science

Land use change is influenced by a complexity of drivers that transcend spatial, institutional and temporal scales. The analytical framework of telecoupling has recently been proposed in land system science to address this complexity, particularly the increasing importance of distal connections, flows and feedbacks characterising change in land systems. This framework holds important potential for advancing the analysis of land system change. In this article, we review the state of the art of the telecoupling framework in the land system science literature. The article traces the development of the framework from teleconnection to telecoupling and presents two approaches to telecoupling analysis currently proposed in the literature. Subsequently, we discuss a number of analytical challenges related to categorisation of systems, system boundaries, hierarchy and scale. Finally, we propose approaches to address these challenges by looking beyond land system science to theoretical perspectives from economic geography, social metabolism studies, political ecology and cultural anthropology.

From teleconnection to telecoupling

Land use change is influenced by a complexity of drivers that transcend spatial, institutional and temporal scales. The analytical framework of telecoupling has recently been proposed in land system science to address this complexity, particularly the increasing importance of distal connections, flows and feedbacks characterising change in land systems. This framework holds important potential for advancing the analysis of land system change. In this article, we review the state of the art of the telecoupling framework in the land system science literature. The article traces the development of the framework from teleconnection to telecoupling and presents two approaches to telecoupling analysis currently proposed in the literature. Subsequently, we discuss a number of analytical challenges related to categorisation of systems, system boundaries, hierarchy and scale. Finally, we propose approaches to address these challenges by looking beyond land system science to theoretical perspectives from economic geography, social metabolism studies, political ecology and cultural anthropology.

Adaptation to climate change as a development project: A case study from Northern Burkina Faso

The major droughts of the early 1970s and 1980s and the continued climate variability experienced in the Sahel have attracted immense international interest. A plethora of aid organizations and projects have entered the region, particularly the northern areas. In Biidi 2, a small Sahelian village in northern Burkina Faso, development projects began to arrive in the 1970s and 1980s and increased in number in the early 1990s. To understand the impact of development projects in the village, we take our theoretical point of departure in the critical development literature. By way of ethnographic fieldwork we show that the importance of projects in Biidi 2 is often unrelated to their aims and that local participation does not entail a negation of but rather an almost complete compliance with project aims. ‘Partnership’ between development projects and local populations is also seen elsewhere in the Sahel. A number of good explanations for this have been proposed. None have, however, placed this situation in a climate change context. In this article, we explore whether the development ‘partnership’ experienced in Biidi 2 is related to climate variation and conclude that there is a close correlation between climate change, the need to buy food and local participation in development projects.

Causal relations and land use transformation in the Sahel: conceptual lenses for processes, temporal totality and inertia

The paper addresses the challenge of conceptualizing and analyzing complex change processes and causal explanations in human–environment systems. To illustrate this challenge empirically, the paper takes its point of departure in the apparent paradox that the agricultural practices in the desert fringe zone of the Sahel seem to remain remarkably unchanged despite huge and accelerating changes in major driving forces such as climate variations, population pressure, policies and market access. Such partly unexpected trends suggest that novel insight is needed into the human environment interactions that shape the use of land for cultivating purposes in this region. As a background for the paper’s conceptual discussion, recent developments in the Sahelian land use system are briefly described, using documentation from empirical case studies conducted in the northernmost region of Burkina Faso over the past 20 years. Specific attention is given to presenting (a) main trends in the transformation of the land use and livelihoods, (b) the co-evolution of possible driving forces that enables and constrains conditions for change and (c) characteristic trajectories of change. Inspired by the notions of process, temporal totality and inertia, the paper suggests employing a portfolio of complementary perspectives to investigate change processes. More precisely, four different conceptual lenses to analyze human–environment interaction are proposed and examined (the land change science framework, the double exposure notion, the system dynamics (SD) approach and coupled human–environmental timelines). Specific attention is given to the potential contribution of these respective lenses to enhancing our understanding of the land SD and to uncovering important causal relations. It is concluded that these conceptual lenses, in concert, can help to put process, in the sense of a sequence of successive stages, in the centre of our understanding of change and causal relationships in human–environmental systems.

Pulse contour cardiac output : an evaluation of the FloTrac method

Background and objective The aim of this study was to determine the agreement between pulmonary artery thermodilution (PA-TD) and a new pulse contour method (PCM), FloTrac/Vigileo version 1.0, and to asses the ability of FloTrac to track sudden changes in cardiac output. Methods Cardiac output was determined twice after induction of anaesthesia, but before cardiac surgery, with both PA-TD and a PCM in order to determine the precision of both methods. The bias and agreement between the two methods were calculated using Bland–Altman analysis. Postoperatively, in patients with heart rates under 60 beats min−1, atrial pacing was initiated and cardiac output was determined before and after with both methods. Results Twenty-five patients were investigated. The precisions of PA-TD and the PCM were 0.35 (95% confidence interval ±0.12) and 0.6 l min−1 (95% confidence interval ±0.21%). The bias between PA-TD and the PCM was −0.51 l min−1 and the limits of agreement were ±1.87 l min−1 (95% confidence interval ±0.39 and ±0.66). The percentage error was 48%. The changes in cardiac output with atrial pacing were in the same direction in all nine patients. Conclusion In this study, agreement between PA-TD and the PCM was poor, but the PCM was able to track the direction of pace-induced changes in cardiac output.

Environmental change in the Sahel: reconciling contrasting evidence and interpretations

The Sahel has been the object of intensive international research since the drought of the early 1970s. A considerable part of the research has focused on environmental change in general and land degradation, land cover change and climate change in particular. Rich and diverse insights from many different scientific disciplines about these three domains have been put forward. One intriguing feature is that an agreement on the overall trends of environmental change does not appear to emerge: questions such as whether the Sahel is greening, cropland is encroaching on rangelands, drought persists remain contested in the scientific literature, and arguments are supported by contrasting empirical evidence. The paper explores the generic reasons behind this situation in a systematic manner. We distinguish between divergences in interpretations emerging from (1) conceptualizations, definitions and choice of indicators, (2) biases, for example, related to selection of study sites, methodological choices, measurement accuracy, perceptions among interlocutors, and selection of temporal and spatial scales of analysis. The analysis of the root causes for different interpretations suggests that differences in findings could often be considered as complementary insights rather than mutually exclusive. This will have implications for the ways in which scientific results can be expected to support regional environmental policies and contribute to knowledge production.

Earth System Science, the IPCC and the problem of downward causation in human geographies of Global Climate Change

Environmental determinist explanations of human behaviour have been few and far between in human geography since the Second World War. Environmental determinism is, however, resurfacing in human geography particularly when climate change is the topic of investigation. In this paper, we trace this revival and link it to the dominance of Earth System Science (ESS) and the institutional process of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the climate change research community. In particular, we want to show how findings coming out of ESS and communicated through the IPCC create a discourse of hierarchical scale and downward causation that prescribes agency to climate. We suggest that viewing scale as a social construction opens up for the analysis of climate change and its societal effects and interpretations outside the official script of the inevitability of adaptation.

Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.

Exploring causal relations: the societal effects of climate change

Exploring causal relations: the societal effects of climate change Jonas Ostergaard Nielsen a & Anette Reenberg b a Department of Anthropology, Waterworlds Research Centre , University of Copenhagen , Oster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353, Copenhagen K , Denmark b Waterworlds Research Centre, University of Copenhagen, Oster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark and Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen , Voldgade 10, DK-1350, Copenhagen K , Denmark Published online: 14 Jan 2013.

Beyond local climate: rainfall variability as a determinant of household nonfarm activities in contemporary rural Burkina Faso

At the household level, nonfarm activities are thought to help rural poor households buffer against agricultural risks related to local climate variability by providing them with cash to buy food in the case of harvest shortfalls. Over the recent decades, households in rural Sub-Sahara have been found less dependent on land and subsistence agriculture and an increasing number of households here derive their income from nonfarm activities. This study tests the hypothesis that rural households in Burkina Faso have diversified to the extent that they no longer rely on nonfarm activities as a safety net against adverse local rainfall events. Results show that household decisions to participate in the nonfarm economy could not be directly linked with local rainfall events during the study period in the mid-2000s. However, household participation was determined by adverse rainfall conditions in the major staple food production zone of the country, presumably because these caused a rise in food prices. Results also suggested that Burkinabe households adopted a flexible approach to nonfarm participation in terms of locality and plurality, depending on short-term rainfall conditions.