Jonathan B. Butcher

Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Watershed modeling in 20 large, United States (U.S.) watersheds addresses gaps in our knowledge of streamflow, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), and sediment loading sensitivity to mid-21st Century climate change and urban/residential development scenarios. Use of a consistent methodology facilitates regional scale comparisons across the study watersheds. Simulations use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Climate change scenarios are from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dynamically downscaled climate model output. Urban and residential development scenarios are from U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios project. Simulations provide a plausible set of streamflow and water quality responses to mid-21st Century climate change across the U.S. Simulated changes show a general pattern of decreasing streamflow volume in the central Rockies and Southwest, and increases on the East Coast and Northern Plains. Changes in pollutant loads follow a similar pattern but with increased variability. Ensemble mean results suggest that by the mid-21st Century, statistically significant changes in streamflow and total suspended solids loads (relative to baseline conditions) are possible in roughly 30-40% of study watersheds. These proportions increase to around 60% for total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads. Projected urban/residential development, and watershed responses to development, are small at the large spatial scale of modeling in this study.

Toxicity models of pulsed copper exposure to Pimephales promelas and Daphnia magna

Semiempirical models are useful for interpreting the response of aquatic organisms to toxicants as a function of exposure concentration and duration. Most applications predict cumulative mortality at the end of the test for constant exposure concentrations. Summary measures, such as the median lethal concentration, are then estimated as a function of concentration. Real-world exposures are not constant. Effects may depend on pulse timing, and cumulative analysis based only on integrated exposure concentration is not sufficient to interpret results. We undertook a series of pulsed-exposure experiments using standard toxicological protocols and interpreted the results (mortality, biomass, and reproduction) using a dynamic generalization of a Mancini/Breck--type model that includes two compartments, one for internal concentration as a function of exposure and one for site-of-action concentration or accumulated damage as a function of the internal dose. At exposure concentrations near the effects level, the model explained approximately 50% of the variability in the observed time history of survival, 43% of the change in biomass, and 83% of the variability in net reproduction. Unexplained variability may result from differences in organism susceptibility, amplified by the effects of small sample sizes in standard tests. The results suggest that response is sensitive to prior conditions and that constant-exposure experiments can underestimate the risk from intermittent exposures to the same concentration. For pulsed exposures, neither the average nor the maximum concentration alone is an adequate index of risk, which depends on both the magnitude, duration, and timing of exposure pulses. Better understanding about the impacts of pulsed exposures will require use of experimental protocols with significantly greater numbers of replicates.

Practical Decision Methods for Watershed Management

Why are formal statistical methods for risk-based decision-making so seldom used in the practice of watershed management? I contend that complex formal methods, while internally consistent, are often inappropriate to real world decision-making. The primary purpose of risk analysis is to support risk management, and decision methods need to be effective not just in evaluating risk, but also in communicating risk among stakeholders and decision makers. Useful methods must be not only correct, but also readily communicable. Many formal risk-based decision methods have real obstacles to practical application in one of the following areas: (1) many important components of risk that matter to stakeholders are difficult to express in quantitative terms, and any method which turns “fuzzy” information and subjective opinion into hard numbers is prone to be regarded with suspicion; (2) methods which are not understandable and convincing to decision makers have little practical value; (3) a complex formal analysis w...

The Effects of Downscaling Method on the Variability of Simulated Watershed Response to Climate Change in Five U.S. Basins

Simulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output to develop finer-resolution information for use in water resources impacts assessments. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources impacts assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). We also assess the specific, incremental effects of downscaling by comparing watershed simulations based on downscaled and non-downscaled GCM model output. Results show that the underlying GCM and the downscaling method each contribute to the variability of simulated watershed responses. The relative contribution of GCM and downscaling method to the variability of simulated responses varies by watershed and season of the year. Results illustrate the potential implications of one key methodological choice in conducting climate change impacts assessments for water - the selection of downscaled climate change information.

Toxics Zoning for Reservoir Source Water Protection

ABSTRACT Water supply reservoirs in urban areas need protection from potential loading of toxic chemicals associated with industrial and commercial land uses, as well as transportation spills. As it is infeasible to eliminate all uses of toxic chemicals from developed watersheds, management strategies attempt to eliminate potential sources from the most sensitive areas. In many jurisdictions this goal is implemented through zoning restrictions which prohibit commercial/industrial activities within a certain fixed distance of the reservoir pool. This simple approach, however, often imposes unnecessary restrictions on some landowners, while failing to provide uniform protection to the water supply. Land use restrictions are never popular, and should be targeted toward the most sensitive potential source areas. A quantitative, geographic assessment of relative risk from all points within the watershed can be used to maximize protection from zoning while minimizing restrictions on economic growth. A steady-st...