Jonathan B. Gubbay

Low 2012–13 Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Associated with Mutation in the Egg-Adapted H3N2 Vaccine Strain Not Antigenic Drift in Circulating Viruses

Background Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is generally interpreted in the context of vaccine match/mismatch to circulating strains with evolutionary drift in the latter invoked to explain reduced protection. During the 2012–13 season, however, detailed genotypic and phenotypic characterization shows that low VE was instead related to mutations in the egg-adapted H3N2 vaccine strain rather than antigenic drift in circulating viruses. Methods/Findings Component-specific VE against medically-attended, PCR-confirmed influenza was estimated in Canada by test-negative case-control design. Influenza A viruses were characterized genotypically by amino acid (AA) sequencing of established haemagglutinin (HA) antigenic sites and phenotypically through haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. H3N2 viruses were characterized in relation to the WHO-recommended, cell-passaged vaccine prototype (A/Victoria/361/2011) as well as the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. Among the total of 1501 participants, influenza virus was detected in 652 (43%). Nearly two-thirds of viruses typed/subtyped were A(H3N2) (394/626; 63%); the remainder were A(H1N1)pdm09 (79/626; 13%), B/Yamagata (98/626; 16%) or B/Victoria (54/626; 9%). Suboptimal VE of 50% (95%CI: 33–63%) overall was driven by predominant H3N2 activity for which VE was 41% (95%CI: 17–59%). All H3N2 field isolates were HI-characterized as well-matched to the WHO-recommended A/Victoria/361/2011 prototype whereas all but one were antigenically distinct from the egg-adapted strain as per actually used in vaccine production. The egg-adapted strain was itself antigenically distinct from the WHO-recommended prototype, and bore three AA mutations at antigenic sites B [H156Q, G186V] and D [S219Y]. Conversely, circulating viruses were identical to the WHO-recommended prototype at these positions with other genetic variation that did not affect antigenicity. VE was 59% (95%CI:16–80%) against A(H1N1)pdm09, 67% (95%CI: 30–85%) against B/Yamagata (vaccine-lineage) and 75% (95%CI: 29–91%) against B/Victoria (non-vaccine-lineage) viruses. Conclusions These findings underscore the need to monitor vaccine viruses as well as circulating strains to explain vaccine performance. Evolutionary drift in circulating viruses cannot be regulated, but influential mutations introduced as part of egg-based vaccine production may be amenable to improvements.

Genetic Variability of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus A Strains Circulating in Ontario: A Novel Genotype with a 72 Nucleotide G Gene Duplication

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the main cause of acute lower respiratory infections in children under 2 years of age and causes repeated infections throughout life. We investigated the genetic variability of RSV-A circulating in Ontario during 2010–2011 winter season by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the G glycoprotein gene. Among the 201 consecutive RSV isolates studied, RSV-A (55.7%) was more commonly observed than RSV-B (42.3%). 59.8% and 90.1% of RSV-A infections were among children ≤12 months and ≤5 years old, respectively. On phylogenetic analysis of the second hypervariable region of the 112 RSV-A strains, 110 (98.2%) clustered within or adjacent to the NA1 genotype; two isolates were GA5 genotype. Eleven (10%) NA1-related isolates clustered together phylogenetically as a novel RSV-A genotype, named ON1, containing a 72 nucleotide duplication in the C-terminal region of the attachment (G) glycoprotein. The predicted polypeptide is lengthened by 24 amino acids and includes a23 amino acid duplication. Using RNA secondary structural software, a possible mechanism of duplication occurrence was derived. The 23 amino acid ON1 G gene duplication results in a repeat of 7 potential O-glycosylation sites including three O-linked sugar acceptors at residues 270, 275, and 283. Using Phylogenetic Analysis by Maximum Likelihood analysis, a total of 19 positively selected sites were observed among Ontario NA1 isolates; six were found to be codons which reverted to the previous state observed in the prototype RSV-A2 strain. The tendency of codon regression in the G-ectodomain may infer a decreased avidity of antibody to the current circulating strains. Further work is needed to document and further understand the emergence, virulence, pathogenicity and transmissibility of this novel RSV-A genotype with a72 nucleotide G gene duplication.

A Sentinel Platform to Evaluate Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness and New Variant Circulation, Canada 2010–2011 Season

BACKGROUND During the 2010-2011 winter, a large number of outbreaks due to influenza A/H3N2 at long-term care facilities, including higher-than-expected attack rates among vaccinated staff, were reported in some regions of Canada. Interim analysis from the community-based sentinel surveillance system showed circulating H3N2 variants and suboptimal vaccine effectiveness (VE), assessed here for the entire seasons data set. METHODS Nasal/nasopharyngeal swabs and epidemiologic details were collected from patients presenting to sentinel sites within 7 days of onset of influenza-like illness. Cases tested positive for influenza by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction; controls tested negative. Odds ratios for medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza in vaccinated vs nonvaccinated participants were used to derive adjusted VE. Viruses were characterized by hemagglutination inhibition (HI), and the hemagglutinin genes of a subset were sequenced to explore vaccine relatedness. RESULTS Final 2010-2011 VE analysis included 1718 participants (half aged 20-49 years), 93 with A(H1N1)pdm09, 408 with A/H3N2, and 199 with influenza B. Among adults aged 20-49 years, adjusted VE was 65% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-87%) for A(H1N1)pdm09 and 66% (95% CI, 10%-87%) for influenza B. Vaccine effectiveness was substantially lower for A/H3N2, at 39% (95% CI, 0%-63%). Phylogenetic analysis identified 2 circulating H3N2 variant clades, A/HongKong/2121/2010 (87%) and A/Victoria/208/2009 (11%), bearing multiple amino acid substitutions at antigenic sites (12 and 8, respectively) compared with the H3N2 vaccine component used in Canada (A/Victoria/210/2009[NYMC X-187]). However, HI characterized all H3N2 isolates as well matched to the vaccine. CONCLUSIONS Public health observations of increased facility H3N2 outbreaks were consistent with the sentinel networks detection of genetic variants and suboptimal VE but not with conventional HI characterization. We highlight the utility of a multicomponent sentinel surveillance platform that incorporates genotypic, phenotypic, and epidemiologic indicators into the assessment of influenza virus, new variant circulation, vaccine relatedness, and VE.

Older Age and a Reduced Likelihood of 2009 H1N1 Virus Infection

Among persons who were at risk for infection with 2009 H1N1 virus, being born before 1957 was associated with a lower infection risk.

A Perfect Storm: Impact of Genomic Variation and Serial Vaccination on Low Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness During the 2014–2015 Season

Using an integrated surveillance platform, we incorporated genetic, antigenic, and epidemiologic indicators to evaluate agent–host factors that contributed to low vaccine effectiveness during the 2014–2015 influenza season, including variation in the viral genome and negative effects of serial vaccination.

Interim estimates of 2014/15 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) from Canada's Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network, January 2015.

The 2014/15 influenza season to date in Canada has been characterised by predominant influenza A(H3N2) activity. Canadas Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network (SPSN) assessed interim vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) infection in January 2015 using a test-negative case-control design. Of 861 participants, 410 (48%) were test-positive cases (35% vaccinated) and 451 (52%) were test-negative controls (33% vaccinated). Among test-positive cases, the majority (391; 95%) were diagnosed with influenza A, and of those with available subtype information, almost all influenza A viruses (379/381; 99%) were A(H3N2). Among 226 (60%) A(H3N2) viruses that were sequenced, 205 (91%) clustered with phylogenetic clade 3C.2a, considered genetically and antigenically distinct from the 2014/15 A/Texas/50/2012(H3N2)-like clade 3C.1 vaccine reference strain, and typically bearing 10 to 11 amino acid differences from the vaccine at key antigenic sites of the haemagglutinin protein. Consistent with substantial vaccine mismatch, little or no vaccine protection was observed overall, with adjusted VE against medically attended influenza A(H3N2) infection of ?8% (95% CI: ?50 to 23%). Given these findings, other adjunct protective measures should be considered to minimise morbidity and mortality, particularly among high-risk individuals. Virus and/or host factors influencing this reduced vaccine protection warrant further in-depth investigation. .

Integrated Sentinel Surveillance Linking Genetic, Antigenic, and Epidemiologic Monitoring of Influenza Vaccine-Virus Relatedness and Effectiveness During the 2013-2014 Influenza Season.

BACKGROUND Canadas Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network links genetic, antigenic, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) measures in an integrated platform of influenza monitoring, described here for the 2013-2014 influenza season of resurgent A(H1N1)pdm09 and late-season type B activity. METHODS VE was estimated as [1 - odds ratio] × 100% and compared vaccination status between individuals who tested positive (cases) and those who tested negative (controls) for influenza virus. Vaccine-virus relatedness was assessed by genomic sequence analysis and hemagglutination inhibition assays. RESULTS Analyses included 1037 controls (of whom 33% were vaccinated) and 663 cases (of whom 14% were vaccinated). A total of 415 cases tested positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, 15 tested positive for A(H3N2) virus, 191 tested positive for B/Yamagata-lineage virus, 6 tested positive for B/Victoria-lineage virus, and 36 tested positive for viruses of unknown subtype or lineage. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B, distinguished by a K163Q substitution, but remained antigenically similar to the A/California/07/2009-like vaccine strain, with an adjusted VE of 71% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58%-80%). Most B/Yamagata-lineage viruses (83%) clustered phylogenetically with the prior (ie, 2012-2013) seasons B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like clade 3 vaccine strain, while only 17% clustered with the current (ie, 2013-2014) seasons B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like clade 2 vaccine strain. The adjusted VE for B/Yamagata-lineage virus was 73% (95% CI, 57%-84%), with a lower VE obtained after partial calendar-time adjustment for clade-mismatched B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like virus (VE, 63%; 95% CI, 41%-77%), compared with that for clade-matched B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like virus (VE, 88%; 95% CI, 48%-97%). No A(H3N2) viruses clustered with the A/Texas/50/2012-like clade 3C.1 vaccine strain, and more than half were antigenically mismatched, but sparse data did not support VE estimation. CONCLUSIONS VE corresponded with antigenically conserved A(H1N1)pdm09 and lineage-matched B/Yamagata viruses with clade-level variation. Surveillance linking genotypic, phenotypic, and epidemiologic measures of vaccine-virus relatedness and effectiveness could better inform predictions of vaccine performance and reformulation.

An assessment of mumps vaccine effectiveness by dose during an outbreak in Canada

Background This investigation was done to assess vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine during an outbreak of mumps in Ontario. The level of coverage required to reach herd immunity and interrupt community transmission of mumps was also estimated. Methods Information on confirmed cases of mumps was retrieved from Ontario’s integrated Public Health Information System. Cases that occurred between Sept. 1, 2009, and June 10, 2010, were included. Selected health units supplied coverage data from the Ontario Immunization Record Information System. Vaccine effectiveness by dose was calculated using the screening method. The basic reproductive number (R0) represents the average number of new infections per case in a fully susceptile population, and R0 values of between 4 and 10 were considered for varying levels of vaccine effectiveness. Results A total of 134 confirmed cases of mumps were identified. Information on receipt of MMR vaccine was available for 114 (85.1%) cases, of whom 63 (55.3%) reported having received only one dose of vaccine; 32 (28.1%) reported having received two doses. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose of the MMR vaccine ranged from 49.2% to 81.6%, whereas vaccine effectiveness of two doses ranged from 66.3% to 88.0%. If we assume vaccine effectiveness of 85% for two doses of the vaccine, vaccine coverage of 88.2% and 98.0% would be needed to interrupt community transmission of mumps if the corresponding reproductive values were four and six. Interpretation Our estimates of vaccine effectiveness of one and two doses of mumps-containing vaccine were consistent with the estimates that have been reported in other outbreaks. Outbreaks occurring in Ontario and elsewhere serve as a warning against complacency over vaccination programs.

Genetic diversity and evolutionary insights of respiratory syncytial virus A ON1 genotype: global and local transmission dynamics

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A ON1 genotype, first detected in 2010 in Ontario, Canada, has been documented in 21 countries to date. This study investigated persistence and transmission dynamics of ON1 by grouping 406 randomly selected RSV-positive specimens submitted to Public Health Ontario from August 2011 to August 2012; RSV-A-positive specimens were genotyped. We identified 370 RSV-A (181 NA1, 135 NA2, 51 ON1 3 GA5) and 36 RSV-B positive specimens. We aligned time-stamped second hypervariable region (330 bp) of G-gene sequence data (global, n = 483; and Ontario, n = 60) to evaluate transmission dynamics. Global data suggests that the most recent common ancestor of ON1 emerged during the 2008–2009 season. Mean evolutionary rate of the global ON1 was 4.10 × 10−3 substitutions/site/year (95% BCI 3.1–5.0 × 10−3), not significantly different to that of Ontario ON1. The estimated mean reproductive number (R0 = ∼ 1.01) from global and Ontario sequences showed no significant difference and implies stability among global RSV-A ON1. This study suggests that local epidemics exhibit similar underlying evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics to that of the persistent global RSV-A ON1 population. These findings underscore the importance of continual molecular surveillance of RSV in order to gain a better understanding of epidemics.

Multiplex PCR tests sentinel the appearance of pandemic influenza viruses including H1N1 swine influenza.

Abstract Background Since the turn of the century seven new respiratory viruses have infected man and two of these have resulted in worldwide epidemics. Both SARS Coronavirus which quickly spread to 29 countries in February 2003 and H1N1 swine influenza that recently spread from Mexico to 30 countries in three weeks represent major pandemic threats for mankind. Diagnostic assays are required to detect novel influenza strains with pandemic potential. Objective In this report we evaluate the ability of a multiplex PCR test (xTAG™ RVP) to detect new, “non-seasonal” influenza viruses including the H1N1 swine influenza A/swine/California/04/2009. Study design Laboratory based study using retrospective and prospective specimens. Results This multiplex PCR test detected the present of non-seasonal (non-H1, non-H3) influenza in 20 of 20 patients infected with H1N1 swine flu virus. In addition to detecting the current swine flu the xTAG™ RVP test detected the H5N1 A/Vietnam/1203/2004 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus that circulated in South East Asia in 2003 as well as 17 out of 17 influenza A viruses representing 11 HA subtypes isolated from birds, swine and horses not yet seen in the human population. Conclusion Based on these results we believe that this molecular test can perform an important role as a sentinel test to detect novel non-seasonal influenza A viruses in patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) and therefore act as an early warning system for the detection of future pandemic influenza threats.