Jonathan Flint

Power failure: why small sample size undermines the reliability of neuroscience

A study with low statistical power has a reduced chance of detecting a true effect, but it is less well appreciated that low power also reduces the likelihood that a statistically significant result reflects a true effect. Here, we show that the average statistical power of studies in the neurosciences is very low. The consequences of this include overestimates of effect size and low reproducibility of results. There are also ethical dimensions to this problem, as unreliable research is inefficient and wasteful. Improving reproducibility in neuroscience is a key priority and requires attention to well-established but often ignored methodological principles.

Mouse genomic variation and its effect on phenotypes and gene regulation.

We report genome sequences of 17 inbred strains of laboratory mice and identify almost ten times more variants than previously known. We use these genomes to explore the phylogenetic history of the laboratory mouse and to examine the functional consequences of allele-specific variation on transcript abundance, revealing that at least 12% of transcripts show a significant tissue-specific expression bias. By identifying candidate functional variants at 718 quantitative trait loci we show that the molecular nature of functional variants and their position relative to genes vary according to the effect size of the locus. These sequences provide a starting point for a new era in the functional analysis of a key model organism.

Strategies for mapping and cloning quantitative trait genes in rodents.

Over the past 15 years, more than 2,000 quantitative trait loci (QTLs) have been identified in crosses between inbred strains of mice and rats, but less than 1% have been characterized at a molecular level. However, new resources, such as chromosome substitution strains and the proposed Collaborative Cross, together with new analytical tools, including probabilistic ancestral haplotype reconstruction in outbred mice, Yin–Yang crosses and in silico analysis of sequence variants in many inbred strains, could make QTL cloning tractable. We review the potential of these strategies to identify genes that underlie QTLs in rodents.

Gene × Environment Interactions at the Serotonin Transporter Locus

BACKGROUND Although it is universally accepted that human disease and behavior depend upon both environmental and genetic variation, a view supported by family and twin studies, examples of environmental interactions with genes identified at the molecular level (G x E) are not so well established. METHODS We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of the serotonin transporter (5-HTTLPR) polymorphic region x stressful life event (SLE) literature and investigated to what extent the main effects reported in this literature are consistent with a number of G x E hypotheses. Our aim was to provide a framework in which to assess the robustness of the claim for the presence of an interaction. RESULTS The results from our systematic review and meta-analysis indicate that the main effect of 5-HTTLPR genotype and the interaction effect between 5-HTTLPR and SLE on risk of depression are negligible. We found that only a minority of studies report a replication that is qualitatively comparable to that in the original report. CONCLUSIONS Given reasonable assumptions regarding likely genetic and environmental effect sizes, our simulations indicate that published studies are underpowered. This, together with other aspects of the literature, leads us to suggest that the positive results for the 5-HTTLPR x SLE interactions in logistic regression models are compatible with chance findings.

Genome-wide genetic association of complex traits in heterogeneous stock mice

Difficulties in fine-mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) are a major impediment to progress in the molecular dissection of complex traits in mice. Here we show that genome-wide high-resolution mapping of multiple phenotypes can be achieved using a stock of genetically heterogeneous mice. We developed a conservative and robust bootstrap analysis to map 843 QTLs with an average 95% confidence interval of 2.8 Mb. The QTLs contribute to variation in 97 traits, including models of human disease (asthma, type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity and anxiety) as well as immunological, biochemical and hematological phenotypes. The genetic architecture of almost all phenotypes was complex, with many loci each contributing a small proportion to the total variance. Our data set, freely available at http://gscan.well.ox.ac.uk, provides an entry point to the functional characterization of genes involved in many complex traits.

Subtle chromosomal rearrangements in children with unexplained mental retardation

BACKGROUND No explanation for moderate to severe mental retardation is apparent in about 40% of cases. Although small chromosomal rearrangements may account for some undiagnosed cases, a lack of genome-wide screening methods has made it impossible to ascertain the frequency of such abnormalities. METHODS A fluorescence in-situ hybridisation (FISH) test was used to examine the integrity of chromosome ends in 284 children with unexplained moderate to severe retardation, and in 182 children with unexplained mild retardation. 75 normal men were also tested. When a chromosomal rearrangement was found, its size was estimated, and members of the childs family were investigated. FINDINGS Subtle chromosomal abnormalities occurred with a frequency of 7.4% in the children with moderate to severe mental retardation, and of 0.5% in the children with mild retardation. The abnormalities had an estimated population prevalence of 2.1 per 10,000, and were familial in almost half of cases. INTERPRETATION Once recognisable syndromes have been excluded, abnormalities that include the ends of chromosomes are the commonest cause of mental retardation in children with undiagnosed moderate to severe mental retardation. Owing to the high prevalence of familial cases, screening for subtle chromosomal rearrangements is warranted in children with unexplained moderate to severe mental retardation.

The endophenotype concept in psychiatric genetics

The idea that some phenotypes bear a closer relationship to the biological processes that give rise to psychiatric illness than diagnostic categories has attracted considerable interest. Much effort has been devoted to finding such endophenotypes, partly because it is believed that the genetic basis of endophenotypes will be easier to analyse than that of psychiatric disease. This belief depends in part on the assumption that the effect sizes of genetic loci contributing to endophenotypes are larger than those contributing to disease susceptibility, hence increasing the chance that genetic linkage and association tests will detect them. We examine this assumption by applying meta-analytical techniques to genetic association studies of endophenotypes. We find that the genetic effect sizes of the loci examined to date are no larger than those reported for other phenotypes. A review of the genetic architecture of traits in model organisms also provides no support for the view that the effect sizes of loci contributing to phenotypes closer to the biological basis of disease is any larger than those contributing to disease itself. While endophenotype measures may afford greater reliability, it should not be assumed that they will also demonstrate simpler genetic architecture.

A simple genetic basis for a complex psychological trait in laboratory mice.

Psychological traits are commonly inferred from covariation in sets of behavioral measures that otherwise appear to have little in common. Emotionality in mice is such a trait, defined here by covariation in activity and defecation in a novel environment and emergence into the open arms of an elevated plus maze. Behavioral and quantitative trait analyses were conducted on four measures obtained from 879 mice from an F2 intercross. Three loci, on murine chromosomes 1, 12, and 15, were mapped that influence emotionality. This trait, inferred from studies of strain, sex, and individual differences in rodents, may be related to human susceptibility to anxiety or neuroticism.

THE POPULATION GENETICS OF THE HAEMOGLOBINOPATHIES

The haemoglobinopathies are the commonest single gene disorders known, and are so common in some regions of the world that the majority of the population carries at least one genetic abnormality affecting the structure or synthesis of the haemoglobin molecule. The prevalence of the common haemoglobinopathies (the alpha- and beta-thalassaemias, HbS, HbC and HbE) is almost certainly a result of the protection they provide against malaria, as the epidemiological evidence reviewed in this chapter shows. World-wide, the distributions of malaria and the common haemoglobinopathies largely overlap, and micro-epidemiological surveys have confirmed the close relationship between the disorders. However, there are complications to this picture which appear to undermine the malaria hypothesis. First, in some areas, malaria and haemoglobinopathies are not coincident. Second, the malaria hypothesis does not easily explain why no two regions of the world have the same haemoglobinopathy or combination of haemoglobinopathies. The majority of mutations have arisen only once and are regionally specific. By using molecular characterization of mutations and the analysis of haplotypes on haemoglobinopathy-bearing chromosomes it is possible to show how a combination of selection by malaria, genetic drift and population movements can explain the first complication. In order to explain the second, we have argued that malaria selection has operated relatively recently on human populations (within the last 5000 years). The present distribution is then seen as the result of selection elevating sporadic mutations in local populations. In the absence of sufficient gene flow to spread all mutations to all populations, the consequence is a patchwork distribution of haemoglobinopathies. Given time, we would expect the mutations that protect and do not compromise the health of their carriers to become widely disseminated, but it is likely that human intervention will alter this process of natural selection.

Genetic architecture of quantitative traits in mice, flies, and humans

We compare and contrast the genetic architecture of quantitative phenotypes in two genetically well-characterized model organisms, the laboratory mouse, Mus musculus, and the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, with that found in our own species from recent successes in genome-wide association studies. We show that the current model of large numbers of loci, each of small effect, is true for all species examined, and that discrepancies can be largely explained by differences in the experimental designs used. We argue that the distribution of effect size of common variants is the same for all phenotypes regardless of species, and we discuss the importance of epistasis, pleiotropy, and gene by environment interactions. Despite substantial advances in mapping quantitative trait loci, the identification of the quantitative trait genes and ultimately the sequence variants has proved more difficult, so that our information on the molecular basis of quantitative variation remains limited. Nevertheless, available data indicate that many variants lie outside genes, presumably in regulatory regions of the genome, where they act by altering gene expression. As yet there are very few instances where homologous quantitative trait loci, or quantitative trait genes, have been identified in multiple species, but the availability of high-resolution mapping data will soon make it possible to test the degree of overlap between species.