Jonathan G. Koomey

Scenarios for a clean energy future

Abstract This paper summarizes the results of a study—Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future—that assess how energy-efficient and clean energy technologies can address key energy and environmental challenges facing the US. A particular focus of this study is the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of different public policies and programs. Hundreds of technologies and approximately 50 policies are analyzed. The study concludes that policies exist that can significantly reduce oil dependence, air pollution, carbon emissions, and inefficiencies in energy production and end-use systems at essentially no net cost to the US economy. The most advanced scenario finds that by the year 2010, the US could bring its carbon dioxide emissions three-quarters of the way back to 1990 levels. The study also concludes that over time energy bill savings in these scenarios can pay for the investments needed to achieve these reductions in energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Electricity used by office equipment and network equipment in the US

In spite of the recent explosive growth in the use of office and network equipment, there has been no recent study (until this one) that estimates in detail how much electricity is consumed by that equipment in the United States.

Electricity Use in California: Past Trends and Present Usage Patterns

Abstract This paper provides a general overview of electricity consumption and peak load in California, by both sector and end use. We examine the growth in electricity demand between 1980 and 2000, as well as the composition of electricity end uses in 1999. One of the main conclusions from this analysis is that electricity use in California in the 1990s did not grow explosively, nor was the amount of growth unanticipated. In both absolute and relative terms, growth in electricity use was greater in the 1980s than the 1990s. During the 1990s, most of the growth in electricity use has been in the buildings sector, particularly commercial buildings. In 2000, the building sector accounted for 2/3 of annual electricity consumption and 3/4 of the summer peak load.

Data center power requirements: measurements from Silicon Valley

Current estimates of data center power requirements are greatly overstated because they are based on criteria that incorporate oversized, redundant systems, and several safety factors. Furthermore, most estimates assume that data centers are filled to capacity. For the most part, these numbers are unsubstantiated. Although there are many estimates of the amount of electricity consumed by data centers, until this study, there were no publicly available measurements of power use. This paper examines some of the reasons why power requirements at data centers are overstated and adds actual measurements and the analysis of real-world data to the public policy debate over how much energy these facilities use.

Savings estimates for the Energy Star® voluntary labeling program

This disclosure involves a novel and compact pulse network or filter and the like, employing elastic wave-spin wave transduction by means of a non-linear time-varying magnetic bias field, providing increased power handling capability and greater compression ratios than present-day filters, and, in addition, variable broad bandwidth adjustment.

Technical evidence for assessing the performance of markets affecting energy efficiency

Abstract This paper focuses on the empirical basis for skepticism about the effectiveness of the market mechanism in promoting cost-effective energy-efficiency improvements. We present a framework for evaluating engineering economic evidence on the diffusion of energy-efficiency improvements, and then present a series of examples within this framework that provide evidence for the existence of market imperfections related to energy efficiency. We conclude with a challenge to economists, policy analysts, and technologists to take this empirical evidence seriously and sponsor further collaborative research in this area.

Electricity end-use efficiency: Experience with technologies, markets, and policies throughout the world

There is a wealth of experience among industrialized countries with technologies and policies to increase electricity end-use efficiency. Some developing countries are beginning to adopt these technologies and policies as well. Technologies include efficient residual appliances. HVAC equipment, light, motors and efficient industrial processes. A small number of market failures that limit the acceptance of these efficient technologies in both industrialized and developing countries are described. Experience with policies to overcome these failures and promote electricity end-use efficiency, including information programs, appliance efficiency standards, financial incentives to appliance manufacturers, commercial building energy standards, integrated resource planning, and demand-side management, is reviewed.

Electricity used by office equipment and network equipment in the U.S.: Detailed report and appendices

In spite of the recent explosive growth in the use of office and network equipment, there has been no recent study that estimates in detail how much electricity is consumed by that equipment in the United States. In this study, we examined energy use by office equipment and network equipment at the end of 1999. We classified office equipment into 11 types; for each type we estimated annual energy consumption for residential, commercial, and industrial use by combining estimates of stock, power requirements, usage, and saturation of power management. We also classified network equipment into six types and estimated the annual energy consumption for each type. We found that total direct power use by office and network equipment is about 74 TWh per year, which is about 2% of total electricity use in the U.S. When electricity used by telecommunications equipment and electronics manufacturing is included, that figure rises to 3% of all electricity use (Koomey 2000). More than 70% of the 74 TWh/year is dedicated to office equipment for commercial use. We also found that power management currently saves 23 TWh/year, and complete saturation and proper functioning of power management would achieve additional savings of 17 TWh/year. Furthermore, complete saturation of night shutdown for equipment not required to operate at night would reduce power use by an additional 7 TWh/year. Finally, we compared our current estimater with our 1995 forecast for 1999. We found that the total difference between our current estimate and the previous forecast is less than 15% and identified the factors that led to inaccuracies in the previous forecast. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis of the uncertainties in our current forecast and identified the data sets that have the largest impact on our current estimate of energy use.

Room for improvement: increasing the value of energy modeling for policy analysis

Abstract There are expanding national discussions on a critical number of energy-related issues ranging from the importance of reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions to enhancing the nation’s energy security and moving towards a competitive electric utility industry. The complex interactions surrounding all of these issues have motivated the development of a relatively large number of energy-economic models to assist policy makers in the framing of appropriate policy directions. But how much do these models really inform the debate? The record of US model-based energy forecasting yields evidence that such models provide biased estimates that tend to reinforce the status quo, inadequately inform policy-makers about new market potential, and serve to constrain the development of innovative policies. This paper reviews some of the reasons for this conclusion and then explores the extent to which energy-economic models may reflect a more dynamic technological diffusion process that encourages new policy development.

Status and future directions of the Energy Star program

In 1992 the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced Energy Star®, a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Since then, the EPA, now in partnership with the US Department of Energy (DOE), has expanded the program to cover nearly the entire buildings sector, spanning new homes, commercial buildings, residential heating and cooling equipment, major appliances, office equipment, commercial and residential lighting, and home electronics. This paper is based on our experience since 1993 in providing technical support to the Energy Star program. We provide a snapshot of the Energy Star program in the year 2000, including a general overview of the program, its accomplishments, and the possibilities for future development.