Jonathan G. Palmer

Estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake from four three-dimensional global ocean models

We have compared simulations of anthropogenic CO2 in the four three-dimensional ocean models that participated in the first phase of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP), as a means to identify their major differences. Simulated global uptake agrees to within ±19%, giving a range of 1.85±0.35 Pg C yr−1 for the 1980–1989 average. Regionally, the Southern Ocean dominates the present-day air-sea flux of anthropogenic CO2 in all models, with one third to one half of the global uptake occurring south of 30°S. The highest simulated total uptake in the Southern Ocean was 70% larger than the lowest. Comparison with recent data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 suggest that most of the models substantially overestimate storage in the Southern Ocean; elsewhere they generally underestimate storage by less than 20%. Globally, the OCMIP models appear to bracket the real oceans present uptake, based on comparison of regional data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 and bomb 14C. Column inventories of bomb 14C have become more similar to those for anthropogenic CO2 with the time that has elapsed between the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study (1970s) and World Ocean Circulation Experiment (1990s) global sampling campaigns. Our ability to evaluate simulated anthropogenic CO2 would improve if systematic errors associated with the data-based estimates could be provided regionally.

A wiggle-match date for Polynesian settlement of New Zealand

Dating initial colonisation and environmental impacts by Polynesians in New Zealand is controversial. A key horizon is provided by the Kaharoa Tephra, deposited from an eruption of Mt Tarawera, because just underneath this layer are the first signs of forest clearance which imply human settlement. The authors used a log of celery pine from within Kaharoa deposits to derive a new precise date for the eruption via “wiggle-matching” – matching the radiocarbon dates of a sequence of samples from the log with the Southern Hemisphere calibration curve. The date obtained was 1314 ± 12 AD (2σ error), and the first environmental impacts and human occupation are argued to have occurred in the previous 50 years, i.e. in the late 13th – early 14th centuries AD. This date is contemporary with earliest settlement dates determined from archaeological sites in the New Zealand archipelago

Calibration of the radiocarbon time scale for the southern hemisphere: AD 1850-950.

We have conducted a series of radiocarbon measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated wood from both hemispheres, spanning 1000 years (McCormac et al. 1998; Hogg et al. this issue). Using the data presented in Hogg et al., we show that during the period AD 950-1850 the 14C offset between the hemispheres is not constant, but varies periodically (~130 yr periodicity) with amplitudes varying between 1 and 10‰ (i.e. 8-80 yr), with a consequent effect on the 14C calibration of material from the Southern Hemisphere. A large increase in the offset occurs between AD 1245 and 1355. In this paper, we present a Southern Hemisphere high-precision calibration data set (SHCal02) that comprises measurements from New Zealand, Chile, and South Africa. This data, and a new value of 41 ± 14 yr for correction of the IntCal98 data for the period outside the range given here, is proposed for use in calibrating Southern Hemisphere 14C dates.

14C calibration in the southern hemisphere and the date of the last taupo eruption : Evidence from tree-ring sequences

Tree rings from a section of Prumnopitys taxifolia (matai) covering the period AD 1335-1745 have been radiocarbon dated and used to generate a (super 14) C calibration curve for southern hemisphere wood. Comparison of this curve with calibration data for northern hemisphere wood does not show a systematic difference between (super 14) C ages measured in the northern and southern hemispheres. A floating chronology covering 270 yr and terminating at the last Taupo (New Zealand) eruption, derived from a sequence of 10-yr samples of tree rings from Phyllocladus trichomanoides (celery pine, or tanekaha), is also consistent with the absence of a systematic north-south difference, and together with the matai data, fixes the date of the Taupo eruption at AD 232+ or -15.

Evidence for a 'Medieval Warm Period' in a 1,100 year tree-ring reconstruction of past austral summer temperatures in New Zealand

[1] The occurrence of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) in the Southern Hemisphere is uncertain because of the paucity of well-dated, high-resolution paleo-temperature records covering the past 1,000 years. We describe a new tree-ring reconstruction of Austral summer temperatures from the South Island of New Zealand, covering the past 1,100 years. This record is the longest yet produced for New Zealand and shows clear evidence for persistent above-average temperatures within the interval commonly assigned to the MWP. Comparisons with selected temperature proxies from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres confirm that the MWP was highly variable in time and space. Regardless, the New Zealand temperature reconstruction supports the global occurrence of the MWP. INDEX TERMS: 4221 Oceanography: General: Dendrochronology; 4215 Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability (3309); 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 3344 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Paleoclimatology; 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309)

High-precision radiocarbon measurements of contemporaneous tree-ring dated wood from the British Isles and New Zealand: AD 1850–950

The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand and The Queens University of Belfast, Northern Ireland radiocarbon dating laboratories have undertaken a series of high-precision measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated oak (Quercus petraea) from Great Britain and cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) and silver pine (Lagarostrobos colensoi) from New Zealand. The results show an average hemispheric offset over the 900 yr of measurement of 40+ or -13 yr. This value is not constant but varies with a periodicity of about 130 yr. The Northern Hemisphere measurements confirm the validity of the Pearson et al. (1986) calibration dataset.

Revised calendar date for the Taupo eruption derived by 14C wiggle-matching using a New Zealand kauri 14C calibration data set

Taupo volcano in central North Island, New Zealand, is the most frequently active and productive rhyolite volcano on Earth. Its latest explosive activity about 1800 years ago generated the spectacular Taupo eruption, the most violent eruption known in the world in the last 5000 years. We present here a new accurate and precise eruption date of ad 232 ± 5 (1718 ± 5 cal. BP) for the Taupo event. This date was derived by wiggle-matching 25 high-precision 14C dates from decadal samples of Phyllocladus trichomanoides from the Pureora buried forest near Lake Taupo against the high-precision, first-millennium ad subfossil Agathis australis (kauri) calibration data set constructed by the Waikato Radiocarbon Laboratory. It shows that postulated dates for the eruption estimated previously from Greenland ice-core records (ad 181 ± 2) and putative historical records of unusual atmospheric phenomena in ancient Rome and China (c. ad 186) are both untenable. However, although their conclusion of a zero north–south 14C offset is erroneous, and their data exhibit a laboratory bias of about 38 years (too young), Sparks et al. (Sparks RJ, Melhuish WH, McKee JWA, Ogden J, Palmer JG and Molloy BPJ (1995) 14C calibration in the Southern Hemisphere and the date of the last Taupo eruption: Evidence from tree-ring sequences. Radiocarbon 37: 155–163) correctly utilized the Northern Hemisphere calibration curve of Stuiver and Becker (Stuiver M and Becker B (1993) High-precision decadal calibration of the radiocarbon timescale, AD 1950–6000 BC. Radiocarbon 35: 35–65) to obtain an accurate wiggle-match date for the eruption identical to ours but less precise (ad 232 ± 15). Our results demonstrate that high-agreement levels, indicated by either agreement indices or χ2 data, obtained from a 14C wiggle-match do not necessarily mean that age models are accurate. We also show that laboratory bias, if suspected, can be mitigated by applying the reservoir offset function with an appropriate error value (e.g. 0 ± 40 years). Ages for eruptives such as Taupo tephra that are based upon individual 14C dates should be considered as approximate only, and confined ideally to short-lived material (e.g. seeds, leaves, small branches or the outer rings of larger trees).

Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December–February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50% of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.

Multi-centennial tree-ring record of ENSO-related activity in New Zealand

It is unclear how global warming will affect the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in part because the instrumental record is too short to understand how ENSO has changed in the past. Now a 700-year-long tree-ring record indicates that ENSO-related climate variability may increase in New Zealand with continued warming.

Variations of radiocarbon in tree rings: Southern Hemisphere offset preliminary results

The Queens University of Belfast, Northern Ireland and University of Waikato, Hamilton. New Zealand radiocarbon laboratories have undertaken a series of high-precision measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated oak (Quercus patrea) and cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) from Great Britain and New Zealand, respectively. The results show a real atmospheric offset of 3.4 ± 0.6% (27.2 ± 4.7 14C yr) between the two locations for the interval AD 1725 to AD 1885, with the Southern Hemisphere being depleted in 14C. This result is less than the value currently used to correct Southern Hemisphere calibrations, possibly indicating a gradient in Δ14C within the Southern Hemisphere.