Jonathan Ireland

The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment

Conventional wisdom has it that increasing price or exchange rate uncertainty will depress investment. Using the Dixit-Pindyck (1994) model, the authors find that there are situations where this will happen and situations where it does not. There are threshold effects, which allows them to identify when rising volatility would increase or decrease investment and also to identify which types of industries would gain, and which would suffer, from a move to fixed exchange rates. This is important for monetary union in Europe since it is likely that, even if trade is insensitive to exchange rate volatility, investment with its longer horizon will be affected. Coauthors are Andrew Hughes Hallett, Jonathan Ireland, and Laura Piscitelli.

COMPACT: a rational expectations, intertemporal model of the United Kingdom economy

Abstract COMPACT is a quarterly macro econometric model of the UK primarily designed for policy analysis. The model includes a consumption function derived explicitly from intertemporal optimisation, a vintage production technology, nominal rigidities in wage and price setting, and trade equations which are influenced by the variety and quality of production relative to the rest of the world. We discuss the overall properties of the model, as well as features of major equations. We stress the importance of relating these properties to simpler theoretical paradigms. Several simulations illustrating key properties of COMPACT are presented. A complete equation listing is provided in an Appendix.

Uncertainties Surrounding Natural Rate Estimates in the G7

It is four decades since Phelps (1967) and Friedman (1968) unveiled the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, and the concept of an equilibrium rate of unemployment is central to the prevailing theories of labour market behaviour and the relationship between unemployment and inflation. Moreover, the natural rate and associated unemployment gaps are seen as important reference points, typically as part of a broad range of indicators, by policy makers who need to assess short-term inflation developments and/or consider appropriate decompositions of fiscal balances into their structural and cyclical components. Yet, as surveys and symposia have illustrated (Bean 1994, Cross 1995, Journal of Economic Perspectives 1997), there remains much uncertainty both about which factors do and do not determine equilibrium rates of unemployment, and about the corresponding numerical values.

Spending and Saving

Consumption and saving decisions have important effects on individuals and on the whole economy. The chapter begins by examining recent trends in consumption and saving in the major European economies, before setting up a framework for analysis. It then examines the life cycle and permanent income hypotheses, and the Keynesian consumption function. An explanation is given of recent patterns of European consumption and saving, for example, by discussing the effect of financial liberalization. Finally comes an analysis of changes in the UK patterns of spending and saving, including the effect of recent building society windfalls.

Inflation Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model

A New Keynesian model is used to derive a relationship between current and expected future inflation taking into account future inflationary pressure. This relationship is employed to examine inflationary dynamics resulting from real disturbances to the economy. Positive current inflationary pressure can be associated with either rising or falling inflation--a phenomenon which has received little attention to date. A data-based model of the UK is used to provide further evidence on the nature of the response of inflation to real disturbances and to quantify the importance of inertia in goods and labour markets. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Exchange Rates, Nominal Inertia and Inflation

This paper examines the use of the nominal exchange rate in achieving disinflation under managed exchange rate regimes. Most previous empirical studies have not explicitly identified expectations in the wage and price setting behavior of their econometric models, despite the importance of expectations both during a disinflation and in correcting misalignments. This has meant that costs due to nominal inertia and nonneutralities have not been addressed separately from questions of credibility. The authors present results for the U.K. economy using both a theoretical and empirical model in which firms and workers form rational expectations, but where there is also nominal inertia. They identify costs in using the exchange rate to change the inflation rate, and also the costs involved in correcting any disequilibria in the real exchange rate. Copyright 1998 by Scottish Economic Society.