Jonathan M. Samet

Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 U.S. Cities, 1987-1994

BACKGROUND Air pollution in cities has been linked to increased rates of mortality and morbidity in developed and developing countries. Although these findings have helped lead to a tightening of air-quality standards, their validity with respect to public health has been questioned. METHODS We assessed the effects of five major outdoor-air pollutants on daily mortality rates in 20 of the largest cities and metropolitan areas in the United States from 1987 to 1994. The pollutants were particulate matter that is less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. We used a two-stage analytic approach that pooled data from multiple locations. RESULTS After taking into account potential confounding by other pollutants, we found consistent evidence that the level of PM10 is associated with the rate of death from all causes and from cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. The estimated increase in the relative rate of death from all causes was 0.51 percent (95 percent posterior interval, 0.07 to 0.93 percent) for each increase in the PM10 level of 10 microg per cubic meter. The estimated increase in the relative rate of death from cardiovascular and respiratory causes was 0.68 percent (95 percent posterior interval, 0.20 to 1.16 percent) for each increase in the PM10 level of 10 microg per cubic meter. There was weaker evidence that increases in ozone levels increased the relative rates of death during the summer, when ozone levels are highest, but not during the winter. Levels of the other pollutants were not significantly related to the mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS There is consistent evidence that the levels of fine particulate matter in the air are associated with the risk of death from all causes and from cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. These findings strengthen the rationale for controlling the levels of respirable particles in outdoor air.

Air pollution and cardiovascular disease: A statement for healthcare professionals from the expert panel on population and prevention science of the American Heart Association

Air pollution is a heterogeneous, complex mixture of gases, liquids, and particulate matter. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated a consistent increased risk for cardiovascular events in relation to both short- and long-term exposure to present-day concentrations of ambient particulate matter. Several plausible mechanistic pathways have been described, including enhanced coagulation/thrombosis, a propensity for arrhythmias, acute arterial vasoconstriction, systemic inflammatory responses, and the chronic promotion of atherosclerosis. The purpose of this statement is to provide healthcare professionals and regulatory agencies with a comprehensive review of the literature on air pollution and cardiovascular disease. In addition, the implications of these findings in relation to public health and regulatory policies are addressed. Practical recommendations for healthcare providers and their patients are outlined. In the final section, suggestions for future research are made to address a number of remaining scientific questions.

Cancer risks attributable to low doses of ionizing radiation: Assessing what we really know

High doses of ionizing radiation clearly produce deleterious consequences in humans, including, but not exclusively, cancer induction. At very low radiation doses the situation is much less clear, but the risks of low-dose radiation are of societal importance in relation to issues as varied as screening tests for cancer, the future of nuclear power, occupational radiation exposure, frequent-flyer risks, manned space exploration, and radiological terrorism. We review the difficulties involved in quantifying the risks of low-dose radiation and address two specific questions. First, what is the lowest dose of x- or γ-radiation for which good evidence exists of increased cancer risks in humans? The epidemiological data suggest that it is ≈10–50 mSv for an acute exposure and ≈50–100 mSv for a protracted exposure. Second, what is the most appropriate way to extrapolate such cancer risk estimates to still lower doses? Given that it is supported by experimentally grounded, quantifiable, biophysical arguments, a linear extrapolation of cancer risks from intermediate to very low doses currently appears to be the most appropriate methodology. This linearity assumption is not necessarily the most conservative approach, and it is likely that it will result in an underestimate of some radiation-induced cancer risks and an overestimate of others.

Sleep-disordered breathing and mortality: A prospective cohort study

In a cohort of 6,441 volunteers followed over an average of 8.2 years, Naresh Punjabi and colleagues find sleep-disordered breathing to be independently associated with mortality and identify predictive characteristics.

Indoor air pollution in developing countries and acute lower respiratory infections in children

BACKGROUND A critical review was conducted of the quantitative literature linking indoor air pollution from household use of biomass fuels with acute respiratory infections in young children, which is focused on, but not confined to, acute lower respiratory infection and pneumonia in children under two years in less developed countries. Biomass in the form of wood, crop residues, and animal dung is used in more than two fifths of the worlds households as the principal fuel. METHODS Medline and other electronic databases were used, but it was also necessary to secure literature from colleagues in less developed countries where not all publications are yet internationally indexed. RESULTS The studies of indoor air pollution from household biomass fuels are reasonably consistent and, as a group, show a strong significant increase in risk for exposed young children compared with those living in households using cleaner fuels or being otherwise less exposed. Not all studies were able to adjust for confounders, but most of those that did so found that strong and significant risks remained. CONCLUSIONS It seems that the relative risks are likely to be significant for the exposures considered here. Since acute lower respiratory infection is the chief cause of death in children in less developed countries, and exacts a larger burden of disease than any other disease category for the world population, even small additional risks due to such a ubiquitous exposure as air pollution have important public health implications. In the case of indoor air pollution in households using biomass fuels, the risks also seem to be fairly strong, presumably because of the high daily concentrations of pollutants found in such settings and the large amount of time young children spend with their mothers doing household cooking. Given the large vulnerable populations at risk, there is an urgent need to conduct randomised trials to increase confidence in the cause-effect relationship, to quantify the risk more precisely, to determine the degree of reduction in exposure required to significantly improve health, and to establish the effectiveness of interventions.

The Global Burden of Disease Due to Outdoor Air Pollution

As part of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Burden of Disease Comparative Risk Assessment, the burden of disease attributable to urban ambient air pollution was estimated in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Air pollution is associated with a broad spectrum of acute and chronic health effects, the nature of which may vary with the pollutant constituents. Particulate air pollution is consistently and independently related to the most serious effects, including lung cancer and other cardiopulmonary mortality. The analyses on which this report is based estimate that ambient air pollution, in terms of fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5), causes about 3% of mortality from cardiopulmonary disease, about 5% of mortality from cancer of the trachea, bronchus, and lung, and about 1% of mortality from acute respiratory infections in children under 5 yr, worldwide. This amounts to about 0.8 million (1.2%) premature deaths and 6.4 million (0.5%) years of life lost (YLL). This burden occurs predominantly in developing countries; 65% in Asia alone. These estimates consider only the impact of air pollution on mortality (i.e., years of life lost) and not morbidity (i.e., years lived with disability), due to limitations in the epidemiologic database. If air pollution multiplies both incidence and mortality to the same extent (i.e., the same relative risk), then the DALYs for cardiopulmonary disease increase by 20% worldwide.

The health benefits of smoking cessation

Extensive evidence has now accumulated on the health consequences of smoking cessation. With few exceptions, disease risks are reduced after smoking cessation and continue to drop as abstinence is maintained. The review of the evidence in the 1990 Report of the Surgeon General led to major conclusions that establish smoking cessation as a clear priority for health care providers.

Geographic variation in the treatment of localized breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Breast-conserving surgery followed by radiation therapy is as effective as modified radical mastectomy in treating women with localized breast cancer, as demonstrated by clinical trials reported during the 1980s. The extent to which breast-conserving surgery has been adopted in various regions of the United States is not known. METHODS We assessed variations in the use of breast-conserving surgery from 1983 to 1986 in 18,399 non-Hispanic white, 324 Hispanic, and 1174 black women with breast cancer in nine areas of the United States, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results Program of the National Cancer Institute. RESULTS The proportion of white women with localized breast cancer who underwent breast-conserving surgery ranged from 9.2 percent (Iowa) to 32.1 percent (Seattle) in 1983-1984 and from 19.6 percent (Iowa) to 41.5 percent (Seattle) in 1985-1986. Between 1983 and 1986, the use of breast-conserving surgery increased in each area, but the relative rankings of the areas changed little. The frequency of the use of breast-conserving surgery in black and Hispanic women was comparable to that in white women. The proportion of women who received radiation therapy after breast-conserving surgery also varied geographically and increased from 1983 to 1986 in all areas. Older women in all areas and black women in Atlanta and Detroit were less likely than other women to receive radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery. CONCLUSIONS There is marked variation in the United States in the use of breast-conserving surgery for localized breast cancer. The variation is not explained by demographic factors, although race and age affect the use of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery.

A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies of Ozone and Mortality With Comparison to the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study

Background: Although many time-series studies of ozone and mortality have identified positive associations, others have yielded null or inconclusive results, making the results of these studies difficult to interpret. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups, cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results with pooled estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. urban centers from 1987 to 2000. Results: Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current-day ozone exposure. In both analyses, results were insensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis, a 10-ppb increase in daily ozone at single-day or 2-day average of lags 0, 1, or 2 days was associated with an 0.87% increase in total mortality (95% posterior interval = 0.55% to 1.18%), whereas the lag 0 NMMAPS estimate is 0.25% (0.12% to 0.39%). Several findings indicate possible publication bias: meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS; meta-analysis pooled estimates at lags 0 or 1 were larger when only a single lag was reported than when estimates for multiple lags were reported; and heterogeneity of city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis were larger than with NMMAPS. Conclusions: This study provides evidence of short-term associations between ozone and mortality as well as evidence of publication bias.

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer: Looking to the Future

In the United States, the 20th century witnessed the emergence of a lung cancer epidemic that peaked and began to decline by the centurys end, a decline that continues today. However, lung cancer continues to be an unabating pandemic. In research carried out over the last half of the 20th century, many factors were causally associated with lung cancer and studies were implemented to identify determinants of susceptibility to these factors. Cigarette smoking was identified as the single most predominant cause of the lung cancer epidemic, but other causes were found, including workplace agents (eg, asbestos, arsenic, chromium, nickel, and radon) and other environmental factors (passive smoking, indoor radon, and air pollution). Contemporary epidemiologic research on lung cancer now focuses on a new set of issues, primarily related to susceptibility to the well-identified causal factors, particularly smoking, and on the consequences of changes in tobacco products for risks to smokers. Diet and the possibility of reducing risk through chemoprevention remain a focus of research emphasis through experimental and observational approaches. Questions have also been raised about possible differences in susceptibility to lung cancer by sex and race. Population patterns in smoking prevalence will continue to be the most powerful predictor of the future occurrence of lung cancer. Evaluation of recent US patterns in smoking prevalence indicates that for the next approximately 10 to 15 years, lung cancer rates will decrease, but will then level off starting in approximately 2030. Unless further reductions in the prevalence of cigarette smoking are achieved over the next decade, lung cancer will remain as an all too common, but avoidable, disease.