Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard

Large-scale community echocardiographic screening reveals a major burden of undiagnosed valvular heart disease in older people: the OxVALVE Population Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Valvular heart disease (VHD) is expected to become more common as the population ages. However, current estimates of its natural history and prevalence are based on historical studies with potential sources of bias. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of VHD identified at recruitment of a large cohort of older people. METHODS AND RESULTS We enrolled 2500 individuals aged ≥65 years from a primary care population and screened for undiagnosed VHD using transthoracic echocardiography. Newly identified (predominantly mild) VHD was detected in 51% of participants. The most common abnormalities were aortic sclerosis (34%), mitral regurgitation (22%), and aortic regurgitation (15%). Aortic stenosis was present in 1.3%. The likelihood of undiagnosed VHD was two-fold higher in the two most deprived socioeconomic quintiles than in the most affluent quintile, and three-fold higher in individuals with atrial fibrillation. Clinically significant (moderate or severe) undiagnosed VHD was identified in 6.4%. In addition, 4.9% of the cohort had pre-existing VHD (a total prevalence of 11.3%). Projecting these findings using population data, we estimate that the prevalence of clinically significant VHD will double before 2050. CONCLUSIONS Previously undetected VHD affects 1 in 2 of the elderly population and is more common in lower socioeconomic classes. These unique data demonstrate the contemporary clinical and epidemiological characteristics of VHD in a large population-based cohort of older people and confirm the scale of the emerging epidemic of VHD, with widespread implications for clinicians and healthcare resources.

Diabetes and infection: assessing the association with glycaemic control in population-based studies

Diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. The global burden of diabetes is rising because of increased obesity and population ageing. Although preventive and treatment measures are well documented for macrovascular and microvascular complications, little such guidance exists for infections in people with diabetes, despite evidence suggesting greater susceptibility to infections, and worse outcomes. In particular, few studies have characterised the relation between glycaemic control and infectious disease, which we discuss in this Review. Some large population-based observational studies have reported strong associations between higher HbA1c and infection risks for both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. However, studies are contradictory, underpowered, or do not control for confounders. Evidence suggests that better glycaemic control might reduce infection risk, but further longitudinal studies with more frequent measures of HbA1c are needed. Older people (aged 70 years or older) with diabetes are at increased risk of complications, including infectious diseases. There is more uncertainty about appropriate glycaemic control targets in this age group, and evidence suggests that glycaemic control is often neglected. Robust evidence from cohorts with sufficient numbers of older people would help to develop clinically relevant guidelines and targets to reduce mortality, morbidity, and antibiotic use, and to improve quality of life.

Recent UK trends in the unequal burden of coronary heart disease

Introduction The burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the UK is substantial. However, recent trends and associated socioeconomic inequalities are not well studied. We aim to identify and analyse these trends stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic quintiles. Methods We quantified the CHD burden and analysed trends from 1999 to 2007 in all adults aged over 25 years resident in England. Data sources included deaths (from ONS), health surveys, and hospital admissions (from Hospital Episode Statistics), all using ICD9 and ICD10 coding. Socioeconomic inequalities were calculated in both absolute and relative terms. Results In 2007, the CHD burden comprised approximately 205 000 hospital admissions (acute and elective), including approximately 110 000 admissions with acute coronary syndrome. There were approximately 1.5 million CHD patients with chronic disease living in the community. Approximately 67 500 of these were admitted during 2007 for revascularisation. There were approximately 173 000 CHD patients living with heart failure, of whom some 14% required hospital admission during 2007. Between 1999 and 2007, age-specific hospital admission rates generally decreased by 20%–35%. Community prevalence decreased by 10%–20%. Strong socioeconomic gradients were apparent in all patient groups, persisting or worsening between 1999 and 2007. Conclusions The burden of CHD is immense, costly and unequal. Hospital admissions attract more attention than the far more numerous patients living with chronic disease in the community. Population-based rates for hospital admissions and CHD prevalence have been declining by 3%–4% per annum. However, marked socioeconomic gradients have persisted or worsened—there is no room for complacency.

CVD Prevention Through Policy: a Review of Mass Media, Food/Menu Labeling, Taxation/Subsidies, Built Environment, School Procurement, Worksite Wellness, and Marketing Standards to Improve Diet

Poor diet is the leading cause of cardiovascular disease in the USA and globally. Evidence-based policies are crucial to improve diet and population health. We reviewed the effectiveness for a range of policy levers to alter diet and diet-related risk factors. We identified evidence to support benefits of focused mass media campaigns (especially for fruits, vegetables, salt), food pricing strategies (both subsidies and taxation, with stronger effects at lower income levels), school procurement policies (for increasing healthful or reducing unhealthful choices), and worksite wellness programs (especially when comprehensive and multicomponent). Evidence was inconclusive for food and menu labeling (for consumer or industry behavior) and changes in local built environment (e.g., availability or accessibility of supermarkets, fast food outlets). We found little empiric evidence evaluating marketing restrictions, although broad principles and large resources spent on marketing suggest utility. Widespread implementation and evaluation of evidence-based policy strategies, with further research on other strategies with mixed/limited evidence, are essential “population medicine” to reduce health and economic burdens and inequities of diet-related illness worldwide.

Worldwide burden of cancer attributable to diabetes and high body-mass index : a comparative risk assessment

Summary Background Diabetes and high body-mass index (BMI) are associated with increased risk of several cancers, and are increasing in prevalence in most countries. We estimated the cancer incidence attributable to diabetes and high BMI as individual risk factors and in combination, by country and sex. Methods We estimated population attributable fractions for 12 cancers by age and sex for 175 countries in 2012. We defined high BMI as a BMI greater than or equal to 25 kg/m2. We used comprehensive prevalence estimates of diabetes and BMI categories in 2002, assuming a 10-year lag between exposure to diabetes or high BMI and incidence of cancer, combined with relative risks from published estimates, to quantify contribution of diabetes and high BMI to site-specific cancers, individually and combined as independent risk factors and in a conservative scenario in which we assumed full overlap of risk of diabetes and high BMI. We then used GLOBOCAN cancer incidence data to estimate the number of cancer cases attributable to the two risk factors. We also estimated the number of cancer cases in 2012 that were attributable to increases in the prevalence of diabetes and high BMI from 1980 to 2002. All analyses were done at individual country level and grouped by region for reporting. Findings We estimated that 5·6% of all incident cancers in 2012 were attributable to the combined effects of diabetes and high BMI as independent risk factors, corresponding to 792 600 new cases. 187 600 (24·5%) of 766 000 cases of liver cancer and 121 700 (38·4%) of 317 000 cases of endometrial cancer were attributable to these risk factors. In the conservative scenario, about 4·5% (626 900 new cases) of all incident cancers assessed were attributable to diabetes and high BMI combined. Individually, high BMI (544 300 cases) was responsible for twice as many cancer cases as diabetes (280 100 cases). 26·1% of diabetes-related cancers (equating to 77 000 new cases) and 31·9% of high BMI-related cancers (174 040 new cases) were attributable to increases in the prevalence of these risk factors from 1980 to 2002. Interpretation A substantial number of cancer cases are attributable to diabetes and high BMI. As the prevalence of these cancer risk factors increases, clinical and public health efforts should focus on identifying optimal preventive and screening measures for whole populations and individual patients. Funding NIHR and Wellcome Trust.

Modeling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities

Background— Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities. Methods and Results— To forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 national population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first on the basis of constant age, period, and cohort effects at 2012 values, as is most commonly done (conventional), and then with the use of more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in age, period, and cohort effects (trend based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by ≈18% (67 000 additional coronary deaths per year) and 50% (64 000 additional stroke deaths per year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would decrease by 2030 by ≈27% (79 000 fewer deaths per year) and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths per year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths but not coronary deaths. Conclusions— After prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts are accounted for, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, whereas stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke but not coronary deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These age, period, and cohort approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates.Background— Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities. Methods and Results— To forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 national population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first on the basis of constant age, period, and cohort effects at 2012 values, as is most commonly done (conventional), and then with the use of more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in age, period, and cohort effects (trend based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by ≈18% (67 000 additional coronary deaths per year) and 50% (64 000 additional stroke deaths per year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would decrease by 2030 by ≈27% (79 000 fewer deaths per year) and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths per year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths but not coronary deaths. Conclusions— After prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts are accounted for, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, whereas stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke but not coronary deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These age, period, and cohort approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates. # CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE {#article-title-31}

Potential of trans fats policies to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from coronary heart disease in England: cost effectiveness modelling study.

Objectives To determine health and equity benefits and cost effectiveness of policies to reduce or eliminate trans fatty acids from processed foods, compared with consumption remaining at most recent levels in England. Design Epidemiological modelling study. Setting Data from National Diet and Nutrition Survey, Low Income Diet and Nutrition Survey, Office of National Statistics, and health economic data from other published studies Participants Adults aged ≥25, stratified by fifths of socioeconomic circumstance. Interventions Total ban on trans fatty acids in processed foods; improved labelling of trans fatty acids; bans on trans fatty acids in restaurants and takeaways. Main outcome measures Deaths from coronary heart disease prevented or postponed; life years gained; quality adjusted life years gained. Policy costs to government and industry; policy savings from reductions in direct healthcare, informal care, and productivity loss. Results A total ban on trans fatty acids in processed foods might prevent or postpone about 7200 deaths (2.6%) from coronary heart disease from 2015-20 and reduce inequality in mortality from coronary heart disease by about 3000 deaths (15%). Policies to improve labelling or simply remove trans fatty acids from restaurants/fast food could save between 1800 (0.7%) and 3500 (1.3%) deaths from coronary heart disease and reduce inequalities by 600 (3%) to 1500 (7%) deaths, thus making them at best half as effective. A total ban would have the greatest net cost savings of about £265m (€361m,

Reducing US cardiovascular disease burden and disparities through national and targeted dietary policies: A modelling study

415m) excluding reformulation costs, or £64m if substantial reformulation costs are incurred outside the normal cycle. Conclusions A regulatory policy to eliminate trans fatty acids from processed foods in England would be the most effective and equitable policy option. Intermediate policies would also be beneficial. Simply continuing to rely on industry to voluntary reformulate products, however, could have negative health and economic outcomes.

Systematic review of dietary salt reduction policies: Evidence for an effectiveness hierarchy?

Background Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption in the US. Methods and findings Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a) a national mass media campaign (MMC) aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b) a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c) a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d) a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400–158,500) CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700–37,500) DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300–28,500) DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800–35,300) DPPs for a 10% SSB tax. Neither the MMC nor the individual national economic policies would significantly reduce CVD socio-economic disparities. However, the SNAP-targeted intervention might potentially reduce CVD disparities between SNAP participants and SNAP-ineligible individuals, by approximately 8% (10 DPPs per 100,000 population). The combined policy approach might save more lives than any single policy studied (approximately 230,000 DPPs by 2030) while also significantly reducing disparities, by approximately 6% (7 DPPs per 100,000 population). Limitations include our effect estimates in the model; these estimates use interventional and prospective observational studies (not exclusively randomised controlled trials). They are thus imperfect and should be interpreted as the best available evidence. Another key limitation is that we considered only CVD outcomes; the policies we explored would undoubtedly have additional beneficial effects upon other diseases. Further, we did not model or compare the cost-effectiveness of each proposed policy. Conclusions Fiscal strategies targeting diet might substantially reduce CVD burdens. A national 10% F&V subsidy would save by far the most lives, while a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants would most reduce socio-economic disparities. A combined policy would have the greatest overall impact on both mortality and socio-economic disparities.

Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study.

Background Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared “downstream, agentic” approaches targeting individuals with “upstream, structural” policy-based population strategies. Methods We searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from “downstream”: dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most “upstream” regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components. Results After screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals. Conclusions Comprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and “upstream” population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than “downstream”, individually focussed interventions. This ‘effectiveness hierarchy’ might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies.