Jonathan Temple

A positive effect of human capital on growth

Abstract Recent studies have found that economic growth appears to be unrelated to increases in educational attainment. In this note I show that there is a correlation in one dataset, but it is typically hidden by unrepresentative observations.

Robustness tests of the augmented Solow model

This paper demonstrates some techniques for testing the robustness of cross-section and panel data regressions, and applies them to the influential augmented Solow growth model. The paper focuses on robust estimation and analysis of sensitivity to measurement error. In particular, it is shown that estimated technology parameters and convergence rates are highly sensitive to measurement error.

Chapter 8 Growth Econometrics

Abstract This paper provides a survey and synthesis of econometric tools that have been employed to study economic growth. While these tools range across a variety of statistical methods, they are united in the common goals of first, identifying interesting contemporaneous patterns in growth data and second, drawing inferences on long-run economic outcomes from cross-section and temporal variation in growth. We describe the main stylized facts that have motivated the development of growth econometrics, the major statistical tools that have been employed to provide structural explanations for these facts, and the primary statistical issues that arise in the study of growth data. An important aspect of the survey is attention to the limits that exist in drawing conclusions from growth data, limits that reflect model uncertainty and the general weakness of available data relative to the sorts of questions for which they are employed.

Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You

The paper discusses three econometric problems that are rarely given adequate discussion in textbooks: model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity, and outliers. Leamers extreme bounds analysis can be adapted to address all three problems simultaneously. Two examples are presented based on an influential cross-country growth paper by Levine and Renelt (1992). Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

Generalizations that aren't? Evidence on education and growth

Abstract Several papers have suggested that the relationship between changes in average schooling and growth is weak in the cross-country data. This might call into question the relevance of micro estimates of returns to schooling, at least for developing countries. This paper examines the reliability of some of the aggregate evidence, and presents an alternative framework for analysing these questions.

Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall

This paper reviews the stories that economists tell about the growth effects of inflation. Informal accounts are common, but there are few models that get to grips with the effects that are probably central. Partly as a result of this, and partly as a result of many econometric problems, much of the empirical evidence remains unconvincing. The paper assesses the various contributions, and suggests possible improvements. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd

Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle

Models of open economies with nominal rigidities are often thought to predict a correlation between openness to trade and the slope of the output-inflation trade-off, or Phillips curve. Using a variety of measures of the trade-off and a standard measure of openness, this paper argues that the direct evidence for a correlation is not strong. In turn, this calls into question the usual explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation that was documented by Romer (1993). The paper considers some alternative explanations for the Romer evidence.

Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?

This paper asks whether the income gap between rich and poor nations can be explained by multiple equilibria. We explore the quantitative implications of a simple two-sector general equilibrium model that gives rise to multiplicity, and calibrate the model for 127 countries. Under the assumptions of the model, around a quarter of the world’s economies are found to be in a low output equilibrium. We also find that, since the output gains associated with an equilibrium switch are sizeable, the model can explain between 15 and 25% of the variation in the logarithm of GDP per worker across countries.

Aid and Conditionality

This chapter examines the conditions under which foreign aid will be effective in raising growth, reducing poverty, and meeting basic needs in areas such as education and health. The primary aim is not to draw policy conclusions, but to highlight the main questions that arise, the contributions of the academic literature in addressing them, and the areas where much remains unknown. After describing some key concepts and trends in aid, the chapter examines the circumstances under which aid might transform productivity, and when it can achieve things that private capital flows cannot. The chapter reviews the relevant theory and evidence. Next, it turns to some of the other considerations that might form part of a structural model linking outcomes to aid. These include Dutch Disease effects, the fiscal response to aid, and the important connections between aid and governance, both positive and negative.

The Long-Run Implications of Growth Theories

This paper draws attention to some possible misunderstandings concerning the place of long-run outcomes in growth theory. It argues that the traditional emphasis on these outcomes is often misguided. As a result of this emphasis, too much attention is paid to the role of knife-edge assumptions, and researchers may be led to interpretations of the evidence, or models of the growth process, that are not wholly sensible. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003.