Jong-Suk Kim

Past climate, future perspective: An exploratory analysis using climate proxies and drought risk assessment to inform water resources management and policy in Maine, USA

In recent decades, significant progress has been made toward reconstructing the past climate record based on environmental proxies, such as tree rings and ice core records. However, limited examples of research that utilizes such data for water resources decision-making and policy exist. Here, we use the reconstructed record of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), dating back to 1138AD to understand the nature of drought occurrence (severity and duration) in the state of Maine. This work is motivated by the need to augment the scientific basis to support the water resources management and the emerging water allocation framework in Maine (Maine Department of Environmental Protection, Chapter 587). Through a joint analysis of the reconstructed PDSI and historical streamflow record for twelve streams in the state of Maine, we find that: (a) the uncertainties around the current definition of natural drought in the Chapter 587 (based on the 20th century instrumental record) can be better understood within the context of the nature and severity of past droughts in this region, and (b) a drought index provides limited information regarding at-site hydrologic variations. To fill this knowledge gap, a drought index-based risk assessment methodology for streams across the state is developed. Based on these results, the opportunities for learning and challenges facing water policies in a changing hydroclimate are discussed.

Streamflow variability and hydroclimatic change at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine (BBWM), USA

Seasonal variations in streamflow and the associated hydrologic extremes impart significant temporal structure to watershed-scale chemical fluxes. Consequently, a careful characterization of the episodic-to-seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations is a first step toward developing a comprehensive view of the temporal dynamics of watershed processes in a changing climate. Here we analyze a nearly two-decade-long streamflow record for the East Bear subwatershed within the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine (BBWM) (USA) to understand the envelope of streamflow variability by season, with a particular focus on the high flow events that have a disproportionately large impact on the biogeochemical processes and fluxes. Interannual and longer-term variations in a number of derived statistical metrics of hydrologic variability are examined. Our analysis shows substantial interannual and longer-term variability in seasonal flow volumes and peak flows. Furthermore, a long, unimpaired streamflow record for the Narraguagus River (a proximate watershed to the BBWM) is examined with a view to understand the relative coherence in hydrologic variability, as well as quantifying the decadal and longer-term hydrologic variations in this region. We find that the streamflow variability in the two watersheds shows similarity in all seasons. A moving window analysis to assess the changing flood potential over time indicates upward trends in the recent decades. Spring season (March–May) flood estimates show a near-monotonic trend over the 1949–2008 record. Finally, empirical relationships between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns highlight the regional and global climatic drivers of hydrologic extremes in this region, including impacts from remnants of Atlantic hurricanes.

Application to Evaluation of Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting for Long-Term Runoff Simulation

Hydrological system forecasting, which is the short term runoff historical data during the limited period in dam site, is a conditional precedent of hydrological persistence by stochastic analysis. We have forecasted the monthly hydrological system from Andong dam basin data that is the rainfall, evaporation, and runoff, using the seasonal ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. Also we have conducted long term runoff simulations through the forecasted results of TANK model and ARIMA+TANK model. It has been taking for three steps, which is model identification, model estimation and model diagnostic checking, to modeling for time series data to processing typical Box and Jenkins method. Therefore, time series data analysis carry out the model distinguished from ACF (autocorrelation function), PACF (partial autocorrelation function), AIC (akaike’s bayesian criterion) and SBC (schwartz’s bayesian criterion). Model diagnostic checking has been performed to portmanteau test, residual test and model identification by ML (maximum likelihood) method. The results of analysis have been concurred to the observation data, and it has been considered for application to possibility on the stochastic model for dam inflow forecasting. Thus, the method presented in this study suggests a help to water resource mid- and long-term strategy establishment to application for runoff simulations through the forecasting variables of hydrological time series on the relatively short holding runoff data in an object basins.

Comparative Assessment of a Method for Extraction of TC-induced Rainfall Affecting the Korean Peninsula

Strong winds and heavy rainfall from tropical cyclones (TCs) that occur in the Northwestern Pacific cause significant human and material damage to the Korean peninsula and East Asia. Hence, it is important to establish early warning systems and conduct preparedness activities in advance of a TC. This study suggests a technique to extract the value of uniform TC-induced rainfall considering the TC track and TC size. To validate our technique, we compare it to existing TC rainfall techniques using the spatial domain. To determine the TC size required for extracting TC-induced rainfall, this research analyzed the mean of TC-induced rainfall by TC size (1973-2012). As a result of this analysis, the maximum amount of mean of TC-induced rainfall was found for a TC with a radius of 700 km. Other techniques have limitations which this new technique addresses; it can extract TC-induced rainfall in each administrative area and minimize systematic biases of other extraction methods. The result of this study can be utilized in the preparation of rainfall forecasts, designing hydraulic structures, and predicting landslide and debris flows using TC-induced rainfall and downpours. keywords : TC rainfall extraction, tropical cyclone, TC-induced rainfall, Korean peninsula ..............................................................................................................................................................................................

A Study on Optimal Time Distribution of Extreme Rainfall Using Minutely Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Seoul

In this study, we have developed an optimal time distribution model through extraction of peaks over threshold (POT) series. The median values for annual maximum rainfall dataset, which are obtained from the magnetic recording (MMR) and the automatic weather system(AWS) data at Seoul meteorological observatory, were used as the POT criteria. We also suggested the improved methodology for the time distribution of extreme rainfall compared to Huff method, which is widely used for time distributions of design rainfall. The Huff method did not consider changing in the shape of time distribution for each rainfall durations and rainfall criteria as total amount of rainfall for each rainfall events. This study have suggested an extracting methodology for rainfall events in each quartile based on interquartile range (IQR) matrix and selection for the mode quartile storm to determine the ranking cosidering weighting factors on minutely observation data. Finally, the optimal time distribution model in each rainfall duration was derived considering both data size and characteristics of distribution using kernel density function in extracted dimensionless unit rainfall hyetograph.

The Study on Application of Regional Frequency Analysis using Kernel Density Function

The estimation of the probability precipitation is essential for the design of hydrologic projects. The techniques to calculate the probability precipitation can be determined by the point frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis. The regional frequency analysis includes index-flood technique and L-moment technique. In the regional frequency analysis, even if the rainfall data passed homogeneity, suitable distributions can be different at each point. However, the regional frequency analysis can supplement the lacking precipitation data. Therefore, the regional frequency analysis has weaknesses compared to parametric point frequency analysis because of suppositions about probability distributions. Therefore, this paper applies kernel density function to precipitation data so that homogeneity is defined. In this paper, The data from 16 rainfall observatories were collected and managed by the Korea Meteorological Administration to achieve the point frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis. The point frequency analysis applies parametric technique and nonparametric technique, and the regional frequency analysis applies index-flood techniques and L-moment techniques. Also, the probability precipitation was calculated by the regional frequency analysis using variable kernel density function.

Agricultural drought monitoring using the satellite-based vegetation index

Paper number: 15-103Received: 14 December 2015; Revised: 11 February 2016 / 22 February 2016; Accepted: 22 February 2016AbstractIn this study, a quantitative assessment was carried out in order to identify the agricultural drought in time and space using the Terra MODIS remote sensing data for the agricultural drought. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were selected by MOD13A3 image which shows the changes in vegetation conditions. The land cover classification was made to show only vegetation excluding water and urbanized areas in order to collect the land information ef ficiently by Type1 of MCD12Q1 images. NDVI and EVI index calculated using land cover classification indicates the strong seasonal tendency. Therefore, standardized Vegetation Stress Index Anomaly (VSIA) of EVI were used to estimated the medium-scale regions in Korea during the extreme drought year 2001. In addition, the agricultural drought damages were investigated in the countrys past, an d it was calculated based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using the data of the ground stations. The VSIA were compared wi th SPI based on historical drought in Korea and application for drought assessment was made by temporal and spatial correlation analys is to diagnose the properties of agricultural droughts in Korea.Keywords: DROUGHT, EVI, MODIS, NDVI, VSIA

Impacts of Two Types of El Niño on Hydrologic Variability in Annual Maximum Flow and Low Flow in the Han River Basin

In this study, we analysed hydrologic variability in quantity and onset of annual maximum flow and low flow by impacts of the different phases of ENSO (El Nio Southern Oscillation) over the Han River Basin. The results show that annual maximum flow has increased statistically significant about 48.3% of all over the watershed. The onset of annual maximum flow was delayed in the west of the Han River basins and in the east of the basins was likely to be rapid onset. Also, this study shows that 7-day low flow was deceased statistically significant about 26.0% of the total area in the Han River Basin, and onset of 7-day low flow tends to be faster in the upper-middle basins of the Han River. The onset of annual maximum flow shows similar pattern during the CT (Cold tongue)/WP (Warm-pool) El Nio years, but annual maximum flow appeared less in 89.0% of all basins during the CT El Nio years. In addition, the onset of 7-day low flow tended to be faster about 17 days on average during the WP El Nio years, and 72.7% of the basins show significant increase during the CT El Nio years. Consequently, it was found that the different phases of CT/WP El Nio have effects on sensitivity to variability in quantity and onset of water resources over the Han River Basin. We expect that the present diagnostic study on hydrological variability during different phases of ENSO will provide useful information for long-term prediction and water resources management.

Dam Rehabilitation Assessment Using the Delphi-AHP Method for Adapting to Climate Change

AbstractExtreme climate events are expected to become more severe or frequent under climate change projections, and these future changes continue to be an urgent concern for the aging water infrast...

Inundation Analysis of Ground and Underground Spaces in Urban Areas

As the population is concentrated in a city, the number of complex buildings such as skyscrapers and underground facilities has increased. Moreover, complicated underground spaces with multi-story, not one-story have been increasingly used. Therefore, it is urgent to analyze underground flooding and make a plan for prevention from the flooding. For this reason, this study set an expected height of underground flooding from the inflow water toward underground with a study target of underground complex buildings with crowded underground stores and parking lots. In addition, through flooding analysis on scenarios, this study suggested proper capacity for the storage and pump facilities. Moreover, this study conducted a comprehensive analysis on flooding process and depth on scenarios to suggest a standard for flooding prevention by building types when designing an underground complex building.