Joost Vervoort

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa

How effective are multi-stakeholder scenarios-building processes to bring diverse actors together and create a policy-making tool to support sustainable development and promote food security in the developing world under climate change? The effectiveness of a participatory scenario development process highlights the importance of “boundary work” that links actors and organizations involved in generating knowledge on the one hand, and practitioners and policymakers who take actions based on that knowledge on the other. This study reports on the application of criteria for effective boundary work to a multi-stakeholder scenarios process in East Africa that brought together a range of regional agriculture and food systems actors. This analysis has enabled us to evaluate the extent to which these scenarios were seen by the different actors as credible, legitimate and salient, and thus more likely to be useful. The analysis has shown gaps and opportunities for improvement on these criteria, such as the quantification of scenarios, attention to translating and communicating the results through various channels and new approaches to enable a more inclusive and diverse group of participants. We conclude that applying boundary work criteria to multi-stakeholder scenarios processes can do much to increase the likelihood of developing sustainable development and food security policies that are more appropriate.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

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A sense of change: media designers and artists communicating about complexity in social-ecological systems

To take on the current and future challenges of global environmental change, fostering a widespread societal understanding of and engagement with the complex dynamics that characterize interacting human and natural systems is essential. Current science communication methods struggle with a number of specific challenges associated with communicating about complex systems. In this study we report on two collaborative processes, a short workshop and longer course, that aimed to harness the insights of interactive media designers and artists to overcome these challenges. The two processes resulted in 86 new interactive media concepts which were selected by the participants and organizers using set criteria and then evaluated using the same criteria by a panel of communication and media design experts and a panel of complex systems scientists using the same criteria. The top eight concepts are discussed in this paper. These concepts fell into the categories of serious games, group interaction concepts, and social media storytelling. The serious games focused directly on complex systems characteristics and were evaluated to be intuitive and engaging designs that combined transparency and complexity well. The group interaction concepts focused mostly on feedbacks and nonlinearity but were fully developed and tested in the workshops, and evaluated as engaging, accessible, and easy to implement in workshops and educational settings. The social media storytelling concepts involved less direct interactions with system dynamics but were seen as highly accessible to large scale audiences. The results of this study show the potential of interdisciplinary collaboration between complex systems scientists, designers, and artists. The results and process discussed in this paper show the value of more structural engagement of interactive media designers and artist communities in the development of communication tools about human and natural systems change.

Visualizing stakeholder perspectives for reflection and dialogue on scale dynamics in social–ecological systems

An understanding among societal actors of how social–ecological systems interact across multiple levels and scales contributes to better governance of those systems. This paper introduces a tool, Scale Perspectives, developed to help societal actors share their perspectives on issues of social–ecological systems governance in a multilevel framework. A first version showed that participants in a local and European case study associated a diverse range of levels and time frames with the same issues, but the version was not able to capture cross-level dynamics. A second version of the tool did allow for the visualization of cross-level dynamics, and was tested in live workshops where more opportunities for individual and group reflection were offered. The tool proved useful for sharing perspectives and strategic dialogue among the participants. The results show the potential of such tools to help societal actors tackle challenges related to scale dynamics in social–ecological systems governance.

Experiential Lock-In: Characterizing Avoidable Maladaptation in Infrastructure Systems

Facing the combined challenges of environmental, social, and technological change, long-lived infrastructure systems run the risk of getting locked into unsustainable, maladapted pathways. This is particularly challenging in the context of climate change, given projected climate impacts are characterized by high degrees of uncertainty (Hallegatte 2009). Lock-in is a concept developed by economic historians to describe how economies get tied into using inefficient technologies, and it is linked to the concept of path dependence (Arthur 1983; David 1985), which refers to the fact that infrastructure systems follow specific trajectories that are difficult and costly to change. As shown in Arthur (1989), these trajectories depend on historical circumstances, timing, and strategy as much as on optimality. In the 1990s, some investigations highlighted the need to approach the analysis of technological changes through coevolutionary approaches that recognize the technological systems influences and are influenced by the social, economic, and cultural setting in which they develop (Rip and Kemp 1998). Liebowitz and Margolis (1994) argued that the role of some elements of the system, such as network externalities, remains contested. Of particular interest is the extent to which favoring incumbent infrastructure systems limits the development capacity of socioeconomic groups such as communities, industries, or countries. While exploring the whole phase space of possible fundamental influences is impractical, the authors argue that it is still possible to avoid some lock-in by effectively utilizing existing anticipatory capacity. The paper elaborates on three ideas, firmly rooted in the scholarly literature and recent studies, which characterize one type of avoidable lock-in: (1) the observed dominance of experiential versus analytical anticipatory capacity of communities, industries, and countries in the governance of sociotechnical systems; (2) the existence of formal approaches to quantify the limits to adaptation in such systems; and (3) limitations of the impact and capacity approach to adaptation. The elements of an avoidable lock-in are then summarized and illustrated by an example. Finally, some conclusions are given on the implications of this type of avoidable lock-in and how it might increasingly affect policy decisions that have long-term implications, such as those related to long-lasting infrastructure systems and spatial planning.

Mixed colonies of Aspergillus niger and Aspergillus oryzae cooperatively degrading wheat bran

In both natural and man-made environments, microorganisms live in mixed populations, while in laboratory conditions monocultures are mainly used. Microbial interactions are often described as antagonistic, but can also be neutral or cooperative, and are generally associated with a metabolic change of each partner and cause a change in the pattern of produced bioactive molecules. A. niger and A. oryzae are two filamentous fungi widely used in industry to produce various enzymes (e.g. pectinases, amylases) and metabolites (e.g. citric acid). The co-cultivation of these two fungi in wheat bran showed an equal distribution of the two strains forming mixed colonies with a broad range of carbohydrate active enzymes produced. This stable mixed microbial system seems suitable for subsequent commercial processes such as enzyme production. XlnR knock-out strains for both aspergilli were used to study the influence of plant cell wall degrading enzyme production on the fitness of the mixed culture. Microscopic observation correlated with quantitative PCR and proteomic data suggest that the XlnR Knock-out strain benefit from the release of sugars by the wild type strain to support its growth.

Exploring future agricultural development and biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi: a spatially explicit scenario-based assessment

Abstract Competition for land is increasing as a consequence of the growing demands for food and other commodities and the need to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land conversion and the intensification of current agricultural systems continues to lead to a loss of biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem functions. Decision-makers need to understand these trade-offs in order to better balance different demands on land and resources. There is an urgent need for spatially explicit information and analyses on the effects of different trajectories of human-induced landscape change in biodiversity and ecosystem services. We assess the potential implications of a set of plausible socio-economic and climate scenarios for agricultural production and demand and model-associated land use and land cover changes between 2005 and 2050 to assess potential impacts on biodiversity in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. We show that different future socio-economic scenarios are consistent in their projections of areas of high agricultural development leading to similar spatial patterns of habitat and biodiversity loss. Yet, we also show that without protected areas, biodiversity losses are higher and that expanding protected areas to include other important biodiversity areas can help reduce biodiversity losses in all three countries. These results highlight the need for effective protection and the potential benefits of expanding the protected area network while meeting agricultural production needs.

Imagining transformative futures: participatory foresight for food systems change

Transformations inherently involve systems change and because of the political nature of change, are subject to contestation. A potentially effective strategy to further transformative change that builds on interdisciplinary, multiactor, and multiscale-practices and values is the use of foresight. Foresight covers a wide range of methods to systematically investigate the future. Foresight exercises offer collaborative spaces and have the potential to conceptualize and even initiate transformative change. But there is no clear understanding of the possibilities and limitations of foresight in this regard. This explorative paper builds on foresight and sociology and interrogates the role of foresight in transformative change, building on four cases. These cases are embedded in different contexts and characterized by different organizational approaches and constellations of actors. Nevertheless, they share the common goal of transformative food systems change. By reflecting on the processes that play a role in foresight workshops, we analyze what created conditions for transformative change in these four empirical cases. We have operationalized these conditions by distinguishing layers in the structuring processes that influence the impact of the foresight process. Based on this analysis, we conclude that there are three roles, ranging from modest to more ambitious, that foresight can play in transformative change: preconceptualization of change; offering an avenue for the creation of new actor networks; and creation of concrete strategies with a high chance of implementation. Furthermore, contributing to future design of foresight processes for transformative change, we offer some crucial points to consider before designing foresight processes. These include the role of leading change makers (including researchers), the risk of co-option by more regime-driven actors, and the ability to attract stakeholders to participate.

Exploring scenario guided pathways for food assistance in Tuscany

A growing number of people in high income countries, also from the segments of population once considered secure, seek food assistance. Diverse food aid initiatives and practices are developed by a range of actors to tackle food poverty; alongside traditional difficulties, new challenges emerge from welfare expenditure cuts, the reorganization of EU Funds for the Most Deprived (FEAD) and from the spreading of surplus food recovery practices by private companies. Based on a preliminary analysis on food assistance practices in Tuscany (Italy), it emerged that operators involved in food assistance activities are reflecting upon future developments: how is food assistance re-thinking its role to deal with the challenges posed by the current context of change? This work adopts a participatory scenario approach to examine pathways that can be considered robust under uncertainties in the planning context of food assistance. We combine the strengths of back-casted planning, which develops desirable pathways for the future, and explorative scenarios that describe plausible future contexts. Results comprise the definition of shared priority themes and plans tested across a set of downscaled scenarios. The methodology provides a promising learning tool to engage with stakeholders and foster a creative future oriented thinking approach to food assistance system’s vulnerability and resilience.