Jordan J. Louviere

External validity tests of laboratory studies of information integration

Abstract Laboratory research aimed at increased understanding of judgment and decision-making behavior has been criticized for lack of external validity. To counter this criticism, the present paper describes a number of laboratory studies of information integration that demonstrate that responses to independent variable manipulations in the laboratory are meaningfully related to factors external to the task and are predictive of decisions made outside the laboratory. Suggestions are made for how researchers can increase the generalizability and external validity of their results by taking into account differences between the laboratory setting and the natural environment.

Modeling individual residential preferences: A totally disaggregate approach

Abstract This paper outlines a general conceptualization of the individual residential location choice process and presents theory necessary to develop separate preference equations for each individual in sample. It is suggested that the coefficients of these equations are systematically related to measurable social, economic, situational, experiential and environmental factors unique to the individual and that this conceptualization can adequately handle dynamics. Empirical work is presented in support of the conceptualization which demonstrates significant relationships between preference coefficients and interpersonal measures. Results also indicate that different individuals have different coefficients and decision variables and that the sets of decision variates may not jointly overlap in any well-behaved manner. Implications for modeling and further work are discussed.

Retirement Migration Decision Making The Integration of Geographic, Social, and Economic Preferences

This study examines the relative influence of a large number of characteristics of places on the migration decision making of a sample of persons in the age group in which persons will be considering retirement migration. An experimental design is used in which persons judge the desirability of migrating to hypothetical locations that vary in climate, terrain, closeness to family, and a number of other attributes. The findings show the relative importance given to 10 attributes of destinations and the distribution of preferred levels of each attribute when subjects rate the attractiveness of destinations described by multiple attributes.

Psychological Contributions to Travel Demand Modeling

The area of travel demand modeling has traditionally been concerned with assessing the determinants of current travel patterns, predicting changes in these patterns as a function of projected changes in transportation systems, and developing more efficient transportation systems based on users’ needs and preferences. The concept of a demand for travel is essentially an economic one: Travel is rarely valued for its own sake; rather, it is valued as a means of attaining some other end. Theoretically, it should be possible to map out the quantities of travel that are purchased at each of a range of prices. Normative planning goals could then be achieved by setting supply of transportation and demand for transportation in equilibrium. Although this is an attractive concept, firmly grounded in the well-developed area of consumer theory in economics, a range of problems plagues most attempts to put it into operation in transportation planning. Indeed, research in the general area of travel demand modeling has been moving rapidly toward theory and methods that may be broadly viewed as attempts to develop explanations of human travel behavior, in general, and human travel choices, in particular. As will be described in this chapter, such research relies heavily on the contributions of psychological measurement and modeling.

The magnitude of individual-level variations in demand coefficients: A Xenia, Ohio case example

Abstract The research reported in this paper develops individual value and choice expressions for a sample of travellers in Xenia, Ohio, U.S.A. A brief description of the methodology for constructing and forecasting with individual-level demand equations is given, relying principally on multiple linear regression and multiple analysis of variance. The research tests the hypothesis that coefficients of individual value functions are systematically associated with experiential, situational and personal characteristics of the individuals. We also obtain data on the distributions of the individual value coefficients and their interrelationships. Finally, the research applies these specifications to the retrospective prediction of transit patronage in a situation of rapidly changing transit system characteristics from 1974 to 1977.

Changes in perceived travel cost and time for the work trip during a period of increasing gasoline costs

This study was designed to examine the relationship between actual and perceived values of cost and time for the work trip and to examine how perceptions have changed over a period of dramatically increased travel costs. Variations in the relationship between perceived and actual values were examined as a function of situational and attitudinal variables. Two telephone surveys were conducted one year apart (Fall 1978 and Fall 1979). On the next working day following a survey, a research assistant recreated the respondents work trip, recorded time values and used distance measures, car type information and parking costs to compute travel cost. The first survey revealed that most auto users were unable to articulate dollars-and-cents driving costs for the work trip, but auto users in the second survey were able to provide fairly accurate cost estimates. Dramatic changes in fuel prices between surveys is probably the main reason for the change in driving cost awareness. Auto users were also asked to rate relative costs of driving a car compared to using the bus for the work trip. These ratings showed that auto users tended to underestimate driving costs relative to bus costs, but this tendency decreased from the first to the second time period. Commuters in all modal groups at both time periods tended to overestimate travel times. Perception of travel time varied as a function of mode, perceived comfort (for car users), and perceived convenience and number of transfers (for bus users).

Behavioural intentions as predictors of very specific behaviour

This paper proposes an alternative approach to understanding travel behaviour —the study of behavioural intentions. The communality of this and the revealed behaviour approach are outlined and the use of controlled experimental methods illustrated in an analysis of empirical data on behavioural intentions of citizens with respect to changes in the levels of transport service, and the introduction of an area licensing scheme for travel in a central city area in Australia.

Stated Choice Methods: Introduction to stated preference models and methods

Introduction This chapter provides the basic framework for stated preference (SP) and stated choice (SC) methods. We first provide a brief rationale for developing and applying SP theory and methods. Then we briefly overview the history of the field. The bulk of attention in this chapter is devoted to an introduction to experimental design, with special reference to SP theory and methods. The next and subsequent chapters deal specifically with the design of (stated) choice experiments, which are briefly introduced in this chapter. Let us begin by discussing the rationale for the design and analysis of stated preference and choice surveys. By ‘survey’ we mean any form of data collection involving the elicitation of preferences and/or choices from samples of respondents. These could be familiar ‘paper and pencil’ type surveys or much more elaborate multimedia events with full motion video, graphics, audio, etc., administered to groups of respondents in central locations or single respondents using advanced computerised interviewing technology. The type of ‘survey’ is dictated by the particular application: relatively simple products which are well known to virtually all respondents usually can be studied with familiar survey methods, whereas complex, new technologies with which most respondents are unfamiliar may require complex, multimedia approaches.