Jorge L. Gomes

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and São Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.

Análisis de una ola de calor extrema en la región subtropical de américa del sur

ANALYSIS OF AN EXTREME HEAT WAVE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA This work analyzes the meteorological conditions that caused the occurrence of an intense heat wave over subtropical South America, with temperatures higher than 40°C immediately to the east of the Andes, during the last week of January 2003. To that purpose the terms of the thermodynamic equation were evaluated through numerical simulations performed with the Eta/CPTEC regional model. The strong temperature increase was caused by adiabatic warming (subsidence) as well as by the net positive surface heat fl ux, especially to the east of the Andes. The qualitative analysis of the Quasi-Geostrophic Omega Equation revealed that the large-scale subsidence was the result of the cold horizontal temperature advection and the advance of a wide ridge at midlevels. Additionally, the presence of forced orographic subsidence (Zonda wind) is evident from observations and numerical simulations in connection with the passage of a short trough immerse in the wider ridge, the approach of a cold front and the southward progress of the thermal-orographic low. Since this phenomenon is quite uncommon during summer, its incidence in combination to the other processes previously described would explain the occurrence of extreme maximum temperatures over western Argentina.

The Eta Model: Design, Use, and Added Value

The design of the Eta model goes back to early 1970s, when its original dynamical core was designed following the philosophy of Akio Arakawa of emulating important properties of the atmospheric governing equations. The core’s later major features were invented and implemented in the mid-1980s. Once a comprehensive physics package was added, the model became operational as a regional NWP model in the United States in 1993. Its use for regional climate projections followed later, for the South American region and then for a regional reanalysis over the North American region. Summary of the model’s dynamical core is given, followed by that of its physics package. Results of experiments revealing the model’s ability to generate added value even at large scales when run as a regional climate model (RCM) are summarized. The Eta model is applied on various climate scales seamlessly, from subseasonal, seasonal to multidecadal, from coarse 40 km up to high 5 km resolution. Examples of applications to various socioe‐ conomic sectors, such as for hydropower management, crop yield forecasts, environ‐ mental and forest conservation, urban areas management, assessment of natural disaster risks, etc., are given. The Eta RCM capability to reproduce extreme climatic values is pointed out.

Avaliação das Previsões de Precipitação do Modelo Eta para Bacia do Rio São Francisco em Minas Gerais, Brasil

In this work, the CPTEC/INPE’s Eta model (8 km and 40 km) forecasts, with 72 hours in advance, are evaluate for 25 intense rainfall cases, occurred in the period 2005-2012, at Sao Francisco River Basin, upstream Tres Marias Hydroelectric Power Plant, in Minas Gerais. The objective is to contribute to the improvement of intense rainfall forecasts in the studied area. Evaluation of rainfall forecasts is made objectively and subjectively, comparing them with observational data. Moreover, synoptic fields forecasts for several variables are compared with the same fields of ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ECMWF). The Eta model forecasts for 25 intense rainfall cases were generated initially nesting Eta-40km model to the CPTEC/INPEs Global model (T126L28). Finally, the Eta-8km model is integrated using as initial conditions the NCEP analysis and as lateral boundary conditions the Eta-40km model forecasts, updated every 6 hours. Considering the 25 intense rainfall cases, evaluating objetively the rain, Eta-8km has better (worst) performance compared to Eta-40km, to predict daily moderate to strong (weak) precipitation. Based on the subjective evaluation, it is noted that when CPTEC/INPE’s Global model fails in positioning the active meteorological system, both versions of Eta model are affected. In cases where meteorological systems are more pronounced, as in the 25 case, it increases the accuracy of both Eta model versions, with Eta-8km showing better results than Eta-40km.