Jorge Rodríguez

The Credibility of the European Monetary System: A Review

The paper presents an overview of several studies about the credibility of the European Monetary System (EMS). These studies compare different credibility indicators in terms of their ability to detect exchange rate crises in a target zone. Marginal credibility seems to be the best measure for capturing the main events. The credibility indices are also applied to the first years of the current ERM-II. The history of the EMS suggests that, in an environment of financial deregulation and high capital flows, such an exchange rate system can only operate as a temporary regime that is moving towards a full monetary union, since it may be too fragile as a permanent monetary regime.

Implicit Regimes for the Spanish Peseta/Deutschmark Exchange Rate

The objective of this paper is to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Spanish peseta/Deutschmark exchange rate. To this end, several statistical approaches, proposed by previous studies, are applied to the period 1965-1998. The results indicate the existence of implicit regimes other than a free-floating one.

Information Technology for Education Management and Open Source Software

Open Source Software has received lately a great deal of attention, specially due to its lower cost in comparison to Proprietary Software. In the education area, this is quite important due to economical restrictions. Lately, we have seen different Spanish communities embracing the OSS model following different models. This article begins by examining OSS history, as well as its main strengths and weaknesses. It follows examining the possibilities and advantages of OSS in education and presents three possible ways in which the OSS can be introduced in a territory.

Mixture inverse Gaussian for unobserved heterogeneity in the autoregressive conditional duration model

ABSTRACT In this paper, we assume that the duration of a process has two different intrinsic components or phases which are independent. The first is the time it takes for a trade to be initiated in the market (for example, the time during which agents obtain knowledge about the market in which they are operating and accumulate information, which is coherent with Brownian motion) and the second is the subsequent time required for the trade to develop into a complete duration. Of course, if the first time is zero then the trade is initiated immediately and no initial knowledge is required. If we assume a specific compound Bernoulli distribution for the first time and an inverse Gaussian distribution for the second, the resulting convolution model has a mixture of an inverse Gaussian distribution with its reciprocal, which allows us to specify and test the unobserved heterogeneity in the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model. Our proposals make it possible not only to capture various density shapes of the durations but also easily to accommodate the behaviour of the tail of the distribution and the non monotonic hazard function. The proposed model is easy to fit and characterizes the behaviour of the conditional durations reasonably well in terms of statistical criteria based on point and density forecasts.ABSTRACTIn this paper, we assume that the duration of a process has two different intrinsic components or phases which are independent. The first is the time it takes for a trade to be initiated in the market (for example, the time during which agents obtain knowledge about the market in which they are operating and accumulate information, which is coherent with Brownian motion) and the second is the subsequent time required for the trade to develop into a complete duration. Of course, if the first time is zero then the trade is initiated immediately and no initial knowledge is required. If we assume a specific compound Bernoulli distribution for the first time and an inverse Gaussian distribution for the second, the resulting convolution model has a mixture of an inverse Gaussian distribution with its reciprocal, which allows us to specify and test the unobserved heterogeneity in the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model.Our proposals make it possible not only to capture various density shapes ...

On Crises, International Trade and Exchange Rate Regimes

The main objective of this paper is to study the performance of exchange rate regimes on international trade during crisis episodes. To that end, a gravity equation is estimated for a sample of 194 countries over the period 1970-2011, by adding a set of regressors built from a de facto classification of exchange rate arrangements and the dates of recognized financial crises. This paper studies the behaviour of the different exchange rate regimes in the context of both global and domestic economic crises. The results indicate that sharing a common currency seems to be the best exchange rate arrangements in terms of its effect on trade during crisis episodes. The results also suggest that the fixer the regime is, the more intense is its promoting impact on trade during crises.

ITEM out of WG 3.7

At the IFIP WG 3.7’s Working Conference two years ago, we presented a paper offering a classification of the Group’s published works by research topics and methodologies. The scope was exclusively internal and some conclusions about the output and future challenges were suggested. We now focus our attention externally, exploring the overall activity in the field of information technology for educational management. On the one hand, we have concentrated on practical works, mainly represented by computer applications for commercial purposes and, on the other hand, we have analysed high level theoretical works. After our review process, we became aware of the preponderance of practical activity in the field, with little support from the theoretical perspective. However, we have found a similar orientation when comparing the research topics and methodologies applied by authors in research journals with those adopted by authors who have contributed to WG 3.7.

Further Evidence on Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results would suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April-December 1980 and March-December 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such implicit bands indicates the high degree of confidence attributed by economic agents to the evolution of the Yen/Dollar exchange rate within the detected implicit band rate, thus lending further support to the relevance of such implicit bands.

Regímenes cambiarios "de iure y de facto". El caso de la peseta/dólar, 1965-1998

In this paper we apply three different statistical procedures to the peseta/dollar exchange rate with the objective of discovering the true foreign exchange regime followed by the monetary authorities during the 1965-1998 period. The study´s perspective emphasizes the divergence between de jure and de facto exchange regimes. The results seem to imply that the peseta, as well as other currencies, did not exhibit the floating regime that de jure had in relation to the US dollar in the last three decades of its existence. On the contrary, the peseta/dollar exchange rate moved within rather narrow fluctuation bands during those years.

Planning as the Base for Efficient Management of ICT

Challenges produced as a result of the vertiginous advance in computer and communication science are extremely difficult to meet, especially for public universities. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the development of strategic information system (IS) and information and communication technology (ICT) plans in higher education and we present the application of this planning procedure to the Las Palmas de Gran Canaria University. A formal planning process is needed in higher education to meet the needs of all agents participating in the universities. Thus, the proposed methodology is composed of nine steps and involves the whole of the university community, not just IS/ICT technicians. These nine phases, derived from strategic planning procedures, are preplanning, external environment assessment, internal evaluation, strategic interest themes identification, mission and vision statements declaration, strategic axes identification, goals and strategies definition, project and specific actions definition and implementation and evaluation. In this paper we also present in detail the process carried out in ULPGC using the proposed methodology and the results in “The Plan for InfoTech Systems and Communications ULPGC 2003–2006”, which is at present in its implementation or execution phase.

Implicit Bands in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results would suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April-December 1980 and March-December 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such implicit bands indicates the high degree of confidence attributed by economic agents to the evolution of the the Yen/Dollar exchange rate within the detected implicit band rate, thus lending further support to the relevance of such implicit bands.This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers both the dynamics of exchange rates and central bank interventions to data covering the period from 1971 to 2003. Our results would suggest that implicit bands existed in two subperiods: April-December 1980 and March-December 1987, the latter coinciding with the Louvre Accord. Furthermore, the study of the credibility of such implicit bands indicates the high degree of confidence attributed by economic agents to the evolution of the the Yen/Dollar exchange rate within the detected implicit band rate, thus lending further support to the relevance of such implicit bands.