Jörn Schmidt

Assessing Social – Ecological Trade-Offs to Advance Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management

Modern resource management faces trade-offs in the provision of various ecosystem goods and services to humanity. For fisheries management to develop into an ecosystem-based approach, the goal is not only to maximize economic profits, but to consider equally important conservation and social equity goals. We introduce such a triple-bottom line approach to the management of multi-species fisheries using the Baltic Sea as a case study. We apply a coupled ecological-economic optimization model to address the actual fisheries management challenge of trading-off the recovery of collapsed cod stocks versus the health of ecologically important forage fish populations. Management strategies based on profit maximization would rebuild the cod stock to high levels but may cause the risk of stock collapse for forage species with low market value, such as Baltic sprat (Fig. 1A). Economically efficient conservation efforts to protect sprat would be borne almost exclusively by the forage fishery as sprat fishing effort and profits would strongly be reduced. Unless compensation is paid, this would challenge equity between fishing sectors (Fig. 1B). Optimizing equity while respecting sprat biomass precautionary levels would reduce potential profits of the overall Baltic fishery, but may offer an acceptable balance between overall profits, species conservation and social equity (Fig. 1C). Our case study shows a practical example of how an ecosystem-based fisheries management will be able to offer society options to solve common conflicts between different resource uses. Adding equity considerations to the traditional trade-off between economy and ecology will greatly enhance credibility and hence compliance to management decisions, a further footstep towards healthy fish stocks and sustainable fisheries in the world ocean.

Spatio-temporal overlap of the alien invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi and ichthyoplankton in the Bornholm Basin (Baltic Sea)

In 2007 the alien invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz 1865 was recorded for the first time in the Bornholm Basin, an area which serves as important spawning ground for Baltic fish stocks. Since M. leidyi is capable of preying upon early life stages of fish and further might act as food competitor for fish larvae, it is of major concern to investigate the potential threat that this non-indigenous species poses to the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. The present study investigates the temporal and spatial overlap of M. leidyi with eggs and larvae of Baltic cod (Gadus morhua L.) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) in order to assess the potential impact of this new invader on two of the most important Baltic fish stocks. Results show variable inter-seasonal distribution and overlap dynamics and thus different seasonal threat-scenarios for the early life stages of cod and sprat. The spatial overlap between M. leidyi and ichthyoplankton was low for most of the period observed, and we conclude that M. leidyi presently does not have a strong impact. However, we detected situations with high overlaps, e.g. for sprat larvae and cod eggs in spring. As the population dynamics of M. leidyi in the central Baltic are not yet fully understood, a future population explosion of the alien ctenophore with possible effects on fish recruitment cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, a possible shift in peak spawning of cod to the early season, when ctenophore abundances were relatively high, might increase the impact of M. leidyi on cod.

It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological–economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Keeping Humans in the Ecosystem

The World Ocean presents many opportunities, with the blue economy projected to at least double in the next two decades. However, capitalizing on these opportunities presents significant challenges and a multi-sectoral, integrated approach to managing marine socio-ecological systems will be required to achieve the full benefits projected for the blue economy. Integrated ecosystem assessments have been identified as the best means of delivering the information upon which marine resource management decisions can be made. By their nature, these assessments are inter-disciplinary, but to date have mostly focused on the natural sciences. Inclusion of human dimensions into integrated ecosystem assessments has been lagging, but is fundamental. Here we report on a Symposium, and the articles emmanating from it that are included in this Theme Set, that address how to more effectively include human dimensions into integrated ecosystem assessments. We provide an introduction to each of the main symposium topics (governance, scenarios, indicators, participatory processes, and case studies), highlight the works that emerged from the symposium, and identify key areas in which more work is required. There is still a long way to go before we see end-to-end integrated ecosystem assessments inclusive of all the major current and potential ocean use sectors that also encompass multiple aspects of human dimensions. Nonetheless, it is also clear that progress is being made and we are developing tools and approaches, including the human dimension, that can inform management and position us to take advantage of the multi-sectoral opportunities of sustainable blue growth.

Ocean Acidification May Aggravate Social-Ecological Trade-Offs in Coastal Fisheries

Ocean Acidification (OA) will influence marine ecosystems by changing species abundance and composition. Major effects are described for calcifying organisms, which are significantly impacted by decreasing pH values. Direct effects on commercially important fish are less well studied. The early life stages of fish populations often lack internal regulatory mechanisms to withstand the effects of abnormal pH. Negative effects can be expected on growth, survival, and recruitment success. Here we study Norwegian coastal cod, one of the few stocks where such a negative effect was experimentally quantified, and develop a framework for coupling experimental data on OA effects to ecological-economic fisheries models. In this paper, we scale the observed physiological responses to the population level by using the experimentally determined mortality rates as part of the stock-recruitment relationship. We then use an ecological-economic optimization model, to explore the potential effect of rising CO2 concentration on ecological (stock size), economic (profits), consumer-related (harvest) and social (employment) indicators, with scenarios ranging from present day conditions up to extreme acidification. Under the assumptions of our model, yields and profits could largely be maintained under moderate OA by adapting future fishing mortality (and related effort) to changes owing to altered pH. This adaptation comes at the costs of reduced stock size and employment, however. Explicitly visualizing these ecological, economic and social tradeoffs will help in defining realistic future objectives. Our results can be generalized to any stressor (or stressor combination), which is decreasing recruitment success. The main findings of an aggravation of trade-offs will remain valid. This seems to be of special relevance for coastal stocks with limited options for migration to avoid unfavorable future conditions and subsequently for coastal fisheries, which are often small scale local fisheries with limited operational ranges.

A Framework for Multispecies Assessment and Management : An ICES/NCM Background Document

The report describes a framework that can be used to identify the most important trade-offs in ecosystem based fisheries management. The framework contains a description of how to identify the bord ...

A heuristic model of socially learned migration behaviour exhibits distinctive spatial and reproductive dynamics

&NA; We explore a “Go With the Older Fish” (GWOF) mechanism of learned migration behaviour for exploited fish populations, where recruits learn a viable migration path by randomly joining a school of older fish. We develop a non‐age‐structured biomass model of spatially independent spawning sites with local density dependence, based on Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii). We compare a diffusion (DIFF) strategy, where recruits adopt spawning sites near their natal site without regard to older fish, with GWOF, where recruits adopt the same spawning sites, but in proportion to the abundance of adults using those sites. In both models, older individuals return to their previous spawning site. The GWOF model leads to higher spatial variance in biomass. As total mortality increases, the DIFF strategy results in an approximately proportional decrease in biomass among spawning sites, whereas the GWOF strategy results in abandonment of less productive sites and maintenance of high biomass at more productive sites. A DIFF strategy leads to dynamics comparable to non‐spatially structured populations. While the aggregate response of the GWOF strategy is distorted, non‐stationary and slow to equilibrate, with a production curve that is distinctly flattened and relatively unproductive. These results indicate that fishing will disproportionately affect populations with GWOF behaviour.

Ecological-Economic Fisheries Management Advice : Quantification of Potential Benefits for the Case of the Eastern Baltic COD Fishery

Fishing is a social and economic activity, and consequently socio-economic considerations are important for resource management. While this is acknowledged in the theory of Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM) and its sector-specific development Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM), currently applied fishery management objectives often ignore economic considerations. Year-to-year management, however, implicitly responds to short-term economic interests, and consequently, regularly resorts to tactical short-term rather than strategic long-term decisions. The aim of this article is to introduce a new way of estimating management advice referred to as an ‘ecologically-constrained Maximum Economic Yield’ (eMEY) strategy, which takes into account ecological criteria as well as short- to medium-term economic costs. We further illustrate what net cost reductions per year are possible applying the eMEY strategy compared with the existing way of setting total allowable catches (TACs). The eMEY approach aims at maximizing the economic benefits for the fishery as well as society (consumers), while safeguarding precautionary stock sizes. Using an age-structured optimization model parameterized for the Eastern Baltic cod case study, we find that application of eMEY advice results in more stability in catch advice. Quantification and visualization of the costs of deviating from eMEY advice offers a transparent basis for evaluating decision-making outcomes. The costs of overfishing are mainly borne by the commercial fishery, while fishing less than optimal is particularly costly for the processing industry and consumers. To foster the uptake of our eMEY approach in current advice given by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and the EU fishery management system, we suggest an easy-to-implement scheme of providing integrated advice, also accounting for economic considerations.

Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union: OCEAN SDG

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that includes a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) with 169 specific targets could be a step forward in achieving efficient governance and policies for global sustainable development. An essential element will be the global indicator framework for monitoring and assessing progress over and against both the overall goals and the specific targets and to guide policy towards sustainable solutions. In the debate over the current indicator framework, little attention is devoted to conceptual issues. Here, we argue that the inclusion of composite indicators, which can be used to aggregate individual indicators, as complements to the single indicators could support the overall assessment process without necessitating any significant changes to the currently proposed indicator base. While the individual indicators remain the backbone of the indicator framework, serving the purpose for detailed assessment of specific policy measures, the composite indicators allow for an explicit assessment of trade-offs between policies. Our illustrative investigation of the sustainable oceanic development of EU coastal states highlights how much a comprehensive assessment can benefit from the additional inclusion of composite indicators.