Jörn-Steffen Pischke

The Structure of Wages and Investment in General Training

In the human capital model with perfect labor markets, firms never invest in general skills and all cost of general training are borne by workers. When lobor market frictions compress the structure of wages, firms may pay for these investments. The distortion in the wage structure turns “technologically” general skills into de facto “specific ” skills. Credit market imperfections are neither neccessary nor sufficient for firm‐sponsored training. Since labor market frictions and insititutions shape the wage structure, they may have an important impact on the financing and amount of human capital investments and account for some international differences in training practices.

The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con Out of Econometrics

This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer’s (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice. As we see it, the credibility revolution in empirical work can be traced to the rise of a design-based approach that emphasizes the identification of causal effects. Design-based studies typically feature either real or natural experiments and are distinguished by their prima facie credibility and by the attention investigators devote to making the case for a causal interpretation of the findings their designs generate. Design-based studies are most often found in the microeconomic fields of Development, Education, Environment, Labor, Health, and Public Finance, but are still rare in Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics. We explain why IO and Macro would do well to embrace a design-based approach. Finally, we respond to the charge that the design-based revolution has overreached.

Employment effects of immigration to Germany: an analysis based on local labor markets

We analyze the impact of increased immigration on employment outcomes of natives in Germany using a data set of county-level variables for the late 1980s. In order to construct more unified labor market regions, we aggregate the 328 counties to 167 larger regions. We study two measures of immigration, the change in the share of foreigners between 1985 and 1989 as well as one-year gross and net flows of immigrants to an area. In order to address the potential problem of immigrant selection into local labor markets, we condition on previous labor market outcomes, which may serve as the basis of immigrant selection. This specification allows for mean reversion in the unemployment rate, which is strong in our data set and period of study. We show that this rules out some other approaches of identifying the impact of immigration. Our results indicate no detrimental effect of immigration. We find no support for the hypothesis that the absence of displacement effects is due to a response of native migration patterns.

Testing for Liquidity Constraints in Euler Equations with Complementary Data Sources

Previous tests for liquidity constraints using consumption Euler equations have frequently split the sample on the basis of wealth, arguing that low-wealth consumers are more likely to be constrained. We propose alternative tests using different and more direct information on borrowing constraints obtained from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances. In a first stage we estimate probabilities of being constrained, which are then utilized in a second sample, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to estimate switching regression models of the Euler equation. Our estimates indicate stronger excess sensitivity associated with the possibility of liquidity constraints than the sample splitting approach.

Individual Income, Incomplete Information and Aggregate Consumption

In this paper I study a model of life-cycle consumption in which individuals react optimally to their own income process but ignore economy wide information. Since individual income is less persistent than aggregate income consumers will react too little to aggregate income variation. Aggregate consumption will be excessively smooth. Since aggregate information is slowly incorporated into consumption, aggregate consumption will be autocorrelated and correlated with lagged income. The second part of the paper provides empirical evidence on individual and aggregate income processes and calibrates the model using the estimated parameters. The mode predictions roughly correspond to the empirical findings for aggregate consumption data. Allowing for the existence of measurement error in micro income, durables, finite lifetimes of consumers, and advance information improves the predictions of the model.

Peer Effects in European Primary Schools: Evidence from Pirls

We estimate peer effects for fourth graders in six European countries. The identification relies on variation across classes within schools. We argue that classes within primary schools are formed roughly randomly with respect to family background. Similar to previous studies, we find sizeable estimates of peer effects in standard OLS specifications. The size of the estimate is much reduced within schools. This could be explained either by selection into schools or by measurement error in the peer background variable. When we correct for measurement error we find within school estimates close to the original OLS estimates. Our results suggest that the peer effect is modestly large, measurement error is important in our survey data, and selection plays little role in biasing peer effects estimates. We find no significant evidence of non-linear peer effects.

Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation

We estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings using changes in compulsory schooling laws in West Germany after World War II. Most estimates in the literature indicate returns in the range of 10 to 15. While our research design is very similar to studies for various other countries, we find a zero return. We find no evidence that this is due to labor market institutions or the apprenticeship training system in Germany. The result might be due to the fact that the basic skills most relevant for the labor market are learned earlier in Germany than in other countries.

Measurement Error and Earnings Dynamics: Some Estimates From the PSID Validation Study

Previous empirical work on measurement error in survey earnings data has shown that the variance of the measurement error is roughly constant over time, it is negatively correlated with true earnings, and it is autocorrelated with previous measurement errors. This article proposes a simple model in which the measurement error stems from underreporting of transitory earnings fluctuations and a white-noise component. The model fits well to data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study. The results imply that autocorrelations in the changes of earnings can be estimated relatively accurately despite the presence of measurement error.

A Statistical Analysis of Crime Against Foreigners in Unified Germany

Germany has experienced a high and rising rate of anti-foreigner violence during the early 1990s. To analyze the determinants of crime against foreigners we assembled a new data set on the number and nature of such crimes at the county level based on newspaper reports. We find significant differences in the patterns of violence in the eastern and western parts of the country. The incidence of anti- foreigner crime is higher in the east and rises with distance from the former west German border. Economic variables like unemployment and wages matter little for the level of crime once location in the east is taken into account. The relative number of foreigners in a country has no relationship with the incidence of ethnic crimes in the west, whereas in the east it has a positive association with the number of crimes per resident and a negative association with the number of crimes per foreign resident.

Returns to Apprenticeship Training in Austria: Evidence from Failed Firms

Little is known about the payoffs to apprenticeship training in the German speaking countries for the participants. OLS estimates suggest that the returns are similar to those of other types of schooling. However, there is a lot of heterogeneity in the quality of apprenticeships offered, and institutional descriptions suggest that there might be an important element of selection in who obtains an apprenticeship, and what type. In order to overcome the resulting ability bias we estimate returns to apprenticeship training for apprentices in small firms in Austria, which cease to operate. When a firm fails, current apprentices cannot complete their training in this firm. Because apprentices will be at different stages in their apprenticeship at that time, the failure of a firm will manipulate the length of the apprenticeship period completed for some apprentices. The time to the firm failure therefore serves as an instrument for the length of the apprenticeship completed both at the original firm and at other firms. We find instrumental variables returns which are similar or larger than the OLS returns in our sample, indicating relatively little selection.