Jose C. Borrero

The slump origin of the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami

The origin of the Papua New Guinea tsunami that killed over 2100 people on 17 July 1998 has remained controversial, as dislocation sources based on the parent earthquake fail to model its extreme run–up amplitude. The generation of tsunamis by submarine mass failure had been considered a rare phenomenon which had aroused virtually no attention in terms of tsunami hazard mitigation. We report on recently acquired high–resolution seismic reflection data which yield new images of a large underwater slump, coincident with photographic and bathymetric evidence of the same feature, suspected of having generated the tsunami. T–phase records from an unblocked hydrophone at Wake Island provide new evidence for the timing of the slump. By merging geological data with hydrodynamic modelling, we reproduce the observed tsunami amplitude and timing in a manner consistent with eyewitness accounts. Submarine mass failure is predicted based on fundamental geological and geotechnical information.

Numerical modelling of floating debris in the world's oceans.

A global ocean circulation model is coupled to a Lagrangian particle tracking model to simulate 30 years of input, transport and accumulation of floating debris in the world ocean. Using both terrestrial and maritime inputs, the modelling results clearly show the formation of five accumulation zones in the subtropical latitudes of the major ocean basins. The relative size and concentration of each clearly illustrate the dominance of the accumulation zones in the northern hemisphere, while smaller seas surrounded by densely populated areas are also shown to have a high concentration of floating debris. We also determine the relative contribution of different source regions to the total amount of material in a particular accumulation zone. This study provides a framework for describing the transport, distribution and accumulation of floating marine debris and can be continuously updated and adapted to assess scenarios reflecting changes in the production and disposal of plastic worldwide.

Runup and rundown generated by three-dimensional sliding masses

To study the waves and runup/rundown generated by a sliding mass, a numerical simulation model, based on the large-eddy-simulation (LES) approach, was developed. The Smagorinsky subgrid scale model was employed to provide turbulence dissipation and the volume of fluid (VOF) method was used to track the free surface and shoreline movements. A numerical algorithm for describing the motion of the sliding mass was also implemented. To validate the numerical model, we conducted a set of large-scale experiments in a wave tank of 104 m long, 3.7 m wide and 4.6 m deep with a plane slope (1:2) located at one end of the tank. A freely sliding wedge with two orientations and a hemisphere were used to represent landslides. Their initial positions ranged from totally aerial to fully submerged, and the slide mass was also varied over a wide range. The slides were instrumented to provide position and velocity time histories. The time-histories of water surface and the runup at a number of locations were measured. Comparisons between the numerical results and experimental data are presented only for wedge shape slides. Very good agreement is shown for the time histories of runup and generated waves. The detailed three-dimensional complex flow patterns, free surface and shoreline deformations are further illustrated by the numerical results. The maximum runup heights are presented as a function of the initial elevation and the specific weight of the slide. The effects of the wave tank width on the maximum runup are also discussed.

Tsunami in Papua New Guinea was as intense as first thought

Last Julys tsunami in Papua New Guinea was as intense and catastrophic as news reports indicated, a scientific survey has found, and recommendations have been put forth to avert such a disaster in the future. The tsunami and the earthquake that generated it occurred July 17, 1998, and the International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) began a weeklong investigation July 31. It was the ninth major tsunami and the most devastating the team has studied in the past 6 years. The team was able to precisely map the inundation and determine that media reports of extreme flows to fairly small sections of shoreline were accurate. Wave heights of 10 m were confirmed along a 25-km stretch of coastline with maximum heights of 15 m and overland flow velocities of 15–20 m/s. Both are extreme measurements, given the moderate size of the earthquake and its aftershocks.The team noted that the force of a tsunami current on an object is roughly 1000 times that of a wind of the same speed.

The 2010 Mw 7.8 Mentawai earthquake: Very shallow source of a rare tsunami earthquake determined from tsunami field survey and near-field GPS data

[1] The Mw 7.8 October 2010Mentawai, Indonesia, earthquake was a“tsunami earthquake,” a rare type of earthquake that generates a tsunami much larger than expected based on the seismicmagnitude.Itproducedalocallydevastatingtsunami,withrunupcommonlyinexcess of 6 m. We examine this event using a combination of high-rate GPS data, from instruments located on the nearby islands, and a tsunami field survey. The GPS displacement time series are deficient in high-frequency energy, and show small coseismic displacements ( 16 m. Our modeling results show that the combination of the small GPS displacements and large tsunami can only be explained by high fault slip at very shallow depths, far from the islands and close to the oceanic trench. Inelastic uplift of trench sediments likely contributed to the size of the tsunami. Recent results for the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoko-Oki earthquake have also shown shallow fault slip, but the results from our study, which involves a smaller earthquake, provide much stronger constraints on how shallow the rupture can be, with the majority of slip for the Mentawai earthquake occurring at depths of <6 km. This result challenges the conventional wisdom that the shallow tips of subduction megathrusts are aseismic, and therefore raises important questions both about the mechanical properties of the shallow fault zone and the potential seismic and tsunami hazard of this shallow region.

Tsunami inundation modeling for western Sumatra

A long section of the Sunda megathrust south of the great tsunamigenic earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 is well advanced in its seismic cycle and a plausible candidate for rupture in the next few decades. Our computations of tsunami propagation and inundation yield model flow depths and inundations consistent with sparse historical accounts for the last great earthquakes there, in 1797 and 1833. Numerical model results from plausible future ruptures produce flow depths of several meters and inundation up to several kilometers inland near the most populous coastal cities. Our models of historical and future tsunamis confirm a substantial exposure of coastal Sumatran communities to tsunami surges. Potential losses could be as great as those that occurred in Aceh in 2004.

Northwest Sumatra and Offshore Islands Field Survey after the December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

An International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) conducted field surveys of tsunami effects on the west coast of northern and central Sumatra and offshore islands 3–4 months after the 26 December 2004 tsunami. The study sites spanned 800 km of coastline from Breuh Island north of Banda Aceh to the Batu Islands, and included 22 sites in Aceh province in Sumatra and on Simeulue Island, Nias Island, the Banyak Islands, and the Batu Islands. Tsunami runup, elevation, flow depth, inundation distance, sedimentary characteristics of deposits, near-shore bathymetry, and vertical land movement (subsidence and uplift) were studied. The maximum tsunami elevations were greater than 16 m, and the maximum tsunami flow depths were greater than 13 m at all sites studied along 135 km of coastline in northwestern Sumatra. Tsunami flow depths were as much as 10 m at 1,500 m inland. Extensive tsunami deposits, primarily composed of sand and typically 5–20 cm thick, were observed in northwestern Sumatra.

Tsunamis within the Eastern Santa Barbara Channel

Several locally generated tsunamis have been reported in Southern California during the past 200 years, yet the hazard from locally generated tsunamis has received considerably little attention. We consider here tsunamis generated by coseismic displacements on the Channel Islands Thrust (CIT) system, as well as waves generated by slope failures along the walls of the Santa Barbara Channel. We find that purely tectonic sources could generate regional tsunamis with 2m runup, whereas combinations of tectonic sources and submarine mass movements could generate local runup as large as 15m.

Evaluation of tsunami risk from regional earthquakes at Pisco, Peru

We evaluate tsunami risk for the port city of Pisco, Peru, where major liquefied natural gas facilities are planned. We use a compilation of instrumental and historical seismicity data to quantify the sources of six earthquakes that generated tsunamis resulting in minor inundation (1974) to catastrophic destruction (1687, 1746, 1868) in Pisco. For each of these case scenarios, the seismic models are validated through hydrodynamic simulations using the MOST code, which compute both flow depth on virtual offshore gauges located in Pisco harbor and the distribution of runup in the port and along the nearby beach. Space-time histories of major earthquakes along central and southern Peru are used to estimate recurrence times of tsunamigenic earthquakes. We conclude that Pisco can expect a metric tsunami, capable of inflicting substantial damage every ∼53 years, and a dekametric tsunami resulting in catastrophic destruction of infrastructures every ∼140 years. The last such event occurred 138 years ago. An important result of our study is that total destruction of the city of Pisco during the famous 1868 Arica tsunami requires an earthquake rupture straddling the Nazca Ridge, which thus constitutes at best an imperfect “barrier” for the propagation of rupture during megathrust events. This gives a truly gigantic size to the 1868 Arica earthquake, with a probable seismic moment reaching 1030 dyne cm.

Near-Field Survey of the 1946 Aleutian Tsunami on Unimak and Sanak Islands

The 1946 Aleutian earthquake stands out among tsunamigenic events because it generated both very high run-up near the earthquake source region and a destructive trans-Pacific tsunami. We obtained new data on the distribution of its tsunami in the near field along south-facing coasts between Unimak Pass on the west and Sanak Island on the east by measuring the height of driftwood and beach materials that were deposited by the tsunami above the extreme storm tide level. Our data indicate that (1) the highest measured run-up, which is at the Scotch Cap light-house, was 42 m above tide level or about 37 m above present storm tide elevation; (2) run-up along the rugged coast from Scotch Cap for 12 km northwest to Sennett Point is 12–18 m, and for 30 km east of Scotch Cap to Cape Lutke it is 24–42 m; (3) run-up along the broad lowlands bordering Unimak Bight is 10–20 m, and inundation is locally more than 2 km; (5) run-up diminishes to 8 m or less at the southeast corner of Unimak Island; (6) no evidence was found for run-up above present storm tides (about 4–5 m above MLLW) on the Ikatan Peninsula or areas along the coast to the west; and (7) run-up above storm tide level in the Sanak Island group is restricted to southwest-facing coasts of Sanak, Long, and Clifford Islands, where it is continuous and locally up to 24 m high. Generation of the tsunami by one or more major earthquake-triggered submarine landslides near the shelf edge south of Unimak Island seems to be the only viable mechanism to account for the data on wave arrival time, run-up heights, and distribution, as well as for unconfirmed anecdotal reports of local postquake increases in water depth and diminished bottom-fisheries productivity. A preliminary hydrodynamic simulation of the local tsunami propagation and run-up using a dipolar model of a possible landslide off Davidson Bank provides an acceptable fit to the characteristics of the distribution of local run-up, with a value at 34 m at the Scotch Cap lighthouse.