José Daniel Anadón

Evaluation of Local Ecological Knowledge as a Method for Collecting Extensive Data on Animal Abundance

The use of local ecological knowledge (LEK) has been advocated for biodiversity monitoring and management. To date, however, it has been underused in studying wild populations of animals and, particularly, in obtaining quantitative abundance estimates. We evaluated LEK as a tool for collecting extensive data on local animal abundance and population trends. We interviewed shepherds in southeastern Spain, asking them to estimate the local abundance of the terrestrial tortoise Testudo graeca. We quantified reliability of abundance estimates derived from interviews by comparing them with those obtained from standard field-sampling protocols (distance sampling). We also explored the complementarity of these 2 approaches. LEK provided high-quality and low-cost information about both distribution and abundance of T. graeca. Interviews with shepherds yielded abundance estimates in a much wider range than linear transects, which only detected the species in the upper two-thirds of its abundance range. Abundance estimates from both methodologies showed a close relationship. Analysis of confidence intervals indicated local knowledge could be used to estimate mean local abundances and to detect mean population trends. A cost analysis determined that the information derived from LEK was 100 times cheaper than that obtained through linear-transect surveys. Our results should further the use of LEK as a standard tool for sampling the quantitative abundance of a great variety of taxa, particularly when population densities are low and traditional sampling methods are expensive or difficult to implement.

Effect of woody-plant encroachment on livestock production in North and South America

Significance Grasslands all over the world are undergoing a rapid shift from herbaceous to woody-plant dominance, a phenomenon known as woody-plant encroachment. The impact of this global phenomenon on livestock production (LP), the main ecosystem service provided by grasslands, remains largely unexplored. We quantified, for the first time, the impact of woody-plant encroachment on LP at a large scale, finding a reduction of between 0.6 and 1.6 reproductive cows per square kilometer for each 1% increase in tree cover. By comparing the largest rangelands of the Americas (United States and Argentina), we also showed how the impact of woody-plant encroachment is mediated by social–economic factors. Our paper represents a significant advance in our understanding of grasslands as complex social–ecological systems. A large fraction of the world grasslands and savannas are undergoing a rapid shift from herbaceous to woody-plant dominance. This land-cover change is expected to lead to a loss in livestock production (LP), but the impacts of woody-plant encroachment on this crucial ecosystem service have not been assessed. We evaluate how tree cover (TC) has affected LP at large spatial scales in rangelands of contrasting social–economic characteristics in the United States and Argentina. Our models indicate that in areas of high productivity, a 1% increase in TC results in a reduction in LP ranging from 0.6 to 1.6 reproductive cows (Rc) per km2. Mean LP in the United States is 27 Rc per km2, so a 1% increase in TC results in a 2.5% decrease in mean LP. This effect is large considering that woody-plant cover has been described as increasing at 0.5% to 2% per y. On the contrary, in areas of low productivity, increased TC had a positive effect on LP. Our results also show that ecological factors account for a larger fraction of LP variability in Argentinean than in US rangelands. Differences in the relative importance of ecological versus nonecological drivers of LP in Argentina and the United States suggest that the valuation of ecosystem services between these two rangelands might be different. Current management strategies in Argentina are likely designed to maximize LP for various reasons we are unable to explore in this effort, whereas land managers in the United States may be optimizing multiple ecosystem services, including conservation or recreation, alongside LP.

Climate change will increase savannas at the expense of forests and treeless vegetation in tropical and subtropical Americas

Summary 1. Transition areas between biomes are particularly sensitive to environmental changes. Our understanding of the impacts of ongoing climate change on terrestrial ecosystems has significantly increased during the last years. However, it is largely unknown how climatic change will affect transitions among major vegetation types. 2. We modelled the distribution of three alternative states (forest, savanna and treeless areas) in the tropical and subtropical Americas by means of climate-niche modelling. We studied how such distribution will change by the year 2070 by using 17 downscaled and calibrated global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and the latest scenarios provided by the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC. 3. Our results support the savannization of the tropical and subtropical Americas because of climate change, with an increase in savannas mainly at the expense of forests. 4. Our models predict an important geographical shift in the current distribution of transition areas between forest and savannas, which is much less pronounced in the case of those between savannas and treeless areas. Largest shifts, up to 600 km northward, are predicted in the forest–savanna transitions located in the eastern Amazon. 5. Our findings indicate that climate change will promote a shift towards more unstable states: the extent of the transition areas will notably increase, and largely stable forest areas are predicted to shrink dramatically. 6. Synthesis. Our work explores dimensions of the impact of climate change on biomes that have received little attention so far. Our results indicate that climate change will not only affect the extent of savanna, forest and treeless areas in the tropical and subtropical Americas, but also will: (i) promote a significant geographical shift and an increase of the extent of transition areas between biomes and (ii) decrease the stability of the equilibrium between forest, savanna and treeless areas, yielding a more unpredictable system.

Habitat Selection by the Spur-thighed Tortoise Testudo graeca in a Multisuccessional Landscape: Implications for Habitat Management

As a result of human activities, natural Mediterranean landscapes (including agro-ecosystems) are characterised by a mosaic-like structure with habitat-patches at different successional stages. These systems have high biodiversity levels and are home to a large number of species protected by European laws whose habitats should be adequately managed. In the present work, we study habitat use from an applied point of view in the spur-thighed tortoise Testudo graeca, an endangered reptile present in semi-arid Mediterranean agro-ecosystems. Results show that, at a landscape scale, the species selects simplified vegetation structures and includes in its home range re-colonisation shrubland and small non-irrigated fields. Within the home range, habitat selection patterns vary and areas with higher vegetation cover and complexity are selected. Detected patterns are discussed in terms of the ecological requirements of the species and with a hierarchical view of resources and conditions. The implications of our findings for habitat management aimed at the conservation of the species are also discussed.

Surfing in tortoises? Empirical signs of genetic structuring owing to range expansion

Much of our current knowledge about the genetic dynamics in range expansions originates from models, simulations and microcosm experiments that need to be corroborated by field data. Here, we report a neutral genetic pattern that matches the predictions of the genetic surfing theory. Genetic surfing occurs when repeated founding events and genetic drift act on the wave of advance of an expanding population, promoting strong spatial structure. In the range expansion of the tortoise Testudo graeca from North Africa to southeastern Spain, we found several genetic signatures consistent with surfing: a decrease of genetic diversity with distance from the initial founder area, clinal patterns in allele frequencies, rare African alleles which have become common at distal sites in the Spanish range, and stronger spatial differentiation in the expanded range than in the original one. Our results provide support for the theory that genetic drift can be an important force in shaping the genetic structure of expanding populations.

Habitat-specific larval dispersal and marine connectivity: Implications for spatial conservation planning

Connectivity via larval dispersal is an important ingredient in setting effective marine reserve networks. Simple guidance for establishing spacing between individual protected sites can provide reliable rules of thumb to help ensure connectivity. Spacing rules for protected network design are relatively new to marine spatial planning, though so far they have been generically and indiscriminately applied to all types of habitats based on a single range of distance values. Here we address the extent to which such rules capture subtleties associated with dispersal distances varying among species in different regions and habitats. We applied a 50–100 km global spacing rule (SRglob), also recently applied in the California Marine Life Protection Act (MLPA) process and based on available global larval dispersal data, to a previously assessed network in the Gulf of California. Using larval dispersal data for species within this region (SRreg), we associated each species with eight unique habitats (SRhab*) and we evaluated connectivity by means of different spacing rules (SRglob, SRreg and SRhab*) using graph-theory. The existing spacing rule employed by the MLPA process (SRglob) was found to be robust and conservative when applied to the Gulf of California or to its different habitats (i.e., the lower limit for dispersal distance includes the distance for all species in the Gulf). We found that species in different habitats exhibit statistically distinct dispersal profiles. Therefore, some habitats could be evaluated with more relaxed spacing rules (i.e., larger distances), than those proposed by the rules of thumb. Our work identifies a conservation planning trade-off when implementing spacing rules: already proposed rules are robust but at the cost of efficiency. Habitat-specific spacing rules should be considered for more efficient marine conservation planning solutions.

Distribution of Testudo graeca in the western Mediterranean according to climatic factors

Despite being one of the most charismatic elements of the Mediterranean Basin fauna and its threatened status, the western Mediterranean range of Testudo graeca is at present very poorly known. The present work provides the most detailed geographical and ecological description for the North African clade of T. graeca so far. We gathered 283 occurrence data of T. graeca in North Africa and modelled the distribution by means of presence-only distribution modelling tools. The obtained model was then projected to southern Europe in order to explore whether the environmental characteristics of European populations fall into the predicted niche of the species in North Africa. T. graeca showed a wide environmental range in North Africa. Presence localities ranged from the sea level to 2090 m of altitude and from 116 to 1093 mm of annual precipitation. The presence-only model indicates that distribution in North Africa is mainly related to rainfall, specifically rainfall values in the wettest and coldest quarter of the year. The distribution model showed a range of ca. 1 000 000 km 2 . The projection of the model to southern Europe showed that the southern Iberian and Balkan Peninsulas, as well as most Mediterranean islands, present climatic conditions within those found in the range of the species in North Africa.

Quantifying the Spatial Ecology of Wide-Ranging Marine Species in the Gulf of California: Implications for Marine Conservation Planning

There is growing interest in systematic establishment of marine protected area (MPA) networks and representative conservation sites. This movement toward networks of no-take zones requires that reserves are deliberately and adequately spaced for connectivity. Here, we test the network functionality of an ecoregional assessment configuration of marine conservation areas by evaluating the habitat protection and connectivity offered to wide-ranging fauna in the Gulf of California (GOC, Mexico). We first use expert opinion to identify representative species of wide-ranging fauna of the GOC. These include leopard grouper, hammerhead sharks, California brown pelicans and green sea turtles. Analyzing habitat models with both structural and functional connectivity indexes, our results indicate that the configuration includes large proportions of biologically important habitat for the four species considered (25–40%), particularly, the best quality habitats (46–57%). Our results also show that connectivity levels offered by the conservation area design for these four species may be similar to connectivity levels offered by the entire Gulf of California, thus indicating that connectivity offered by the areas may resemble natural connectivity. The selected focal species comprise different life histories among marine or marine-related vertebrates and are associated with those habitats holding the most biodiversity values (i.e. coastal habitats); our results thus suggest that the proposed configuration may function as a network for connectivity and may adequately represent the marine megafauna in the GOC, including the potential connectivity among habitat patches. This work highlights the range of approaches that can be used to quantify habitat protection and connectivity for wide-ranging marine species in marine reserve networks.

Climate Matching Drives Spread Rate but Not Establishment Success in Recent Unintentional Bird Introductions

Significance The awareness of the negative consequences of biological invasions and the critical importance of evidence-based decision making have led to a persistent effort to understand the factors driving the successful invasion of exotic species and to predict invasion outcome. We assess, taking advantage of an exceptionally comprehensive dataset of exotic birds in the Iberian Peninsula, the role of different factors in the invasion success of current avian introductions. Our findings contrast with the evidence previously found in studies mostly based on deliberate introductions regarding factors influencing the invasion success of birds and show that drivers controlling the establishment and spread stages are markedly different. Our results also highlight certain challenges for managing current invasions. Understanding factors driving successful invasions is one of the cornerstones of invasion biology. Bird invasions have been frequently used as study models, and the foundation of current knowledge largely relies on species purposefully introduced during the 19th and early 20th centuries in countries colonized by Europeans. However, the profile of exotic bird species has changed radically in the last decades, as birds are now mostly introduced into the invasion process through unplanned releases from the worldwide pet and avicultural trade. Here we assessed the role of the three main drivers of invasion success (i.e., event-, species-, and location-level factors) on the establishment and spatial spread of exotic birds using an unprecedented dataset recorded throughout the last 100 y in the Iberian Peninsula. Our multimodel inference phylogenetic approach showed that the barriers that need to be overcome by a species to successfully establish or spread are not the same. Whereas establishment is largely related to event-level factors, apparently stochastic features of the introduction (time since first introduction and propagule pressure) and to the origin of introduced species (wild-caught species show higher invasiveness than captive-bred ones), the spread across the invaded region seems to be determined by the extent to which climatic conditions in the new region resemble those of the species’ native range. Overall, these results contrast with what we learned from successful deliberate introductions and highlight that different management interventions should apply at different invasion stages, the most efficient strategies being related to event-level factors.

Can establishment success be determined through demographic parameters? A case study on five introduced bird species.

The dominant criterion to determine when an introduced species is established relies on the maintenance of a self-sustaining population in the area of introduction, i.e. on the viability of the population from a demographic perspective. There is however a paucity of demographic studies on introduced species, and establishment success is thus generally determined by expert opinion without undertaking population viability analyses (PVAs). By means of an intensive five year capture-recapture monitoring program (involving >12,000 marked individuals) we studied the demography of five introduced passerine bird species in southern Spain which are established and have undergone a fast expansion over the last decades. We obtained useful estimates of demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) for one colonial species (Ploceus melanocephalus), confirming the long-term viability of its local population through PVAs. However, extremely low recapture rates prevented the estimation of survival parameters and population growth rates for widely distributed species with low local densities (Estrilda troglodytes and Amandava amandava) but also for highly abundant yet non-colonial species (Estrilda astrild and Euplectes afer). Therefore, determining the establishment success of introduced passerine species by demographic criteria alone may often be troublesome even when devoting much effort to field-work. Alternative quantitative methodologies such as the analysis of spatio-temporal species distributions complemented with expert opinion deserve thus their role in the assessment of establishment success of introduced species when estimates of demographic parameters are difficult to obtain, as is generally the case for non-colonial, highly mobile passerines.