José E. Boscá

The Spanish Football Crisis

Abstract This article analyses the economic results of Spanish professional football teams using data collected over the past few years. These data differ substantially from the information presented in the annual reports of the “Liga de Fútbol Profesional” (Spanish professional football league), which are obtained from the initial budgets elaborated each season. Special attention is paid to the two most important teams in the Spanish league: Real Madrid and FC Barcelona. The results of this research show that Spanish football has the same problems as those evidenced by the Italian and English football leagues and, therefore, requires similar solutions in order to be able to survive in forthcoming years.

RANKING DECISION MAKING UNITS BY MEANS OF SOFT COMPUTING DEA MODELS

This paper presents a method for ranking a set of decision making units according to their level of efficiency and which takes into account uncertainty in the data. Efficiency is analysed using fuzzy DEA techniques and the ranking is based on the statistical analysis of cases that include representative situations. The method enables the removal of the sometimes unrealistic hypothesis of a perfect trade-off between increased inputs and outputs. This model is compared with other DEA models that work with imprecise or fuzzy data. As an illustration, we apply our ranking method to the evaluation of a group of Spanish seaports, as well as teams playing in the Spanish football league. We compare the results with other methods and we show that our method enables a total ranking of the seaports, and that the ranking of football teams is found to be more consistent with final league positions.

Fiscal Devaluations in EMU

We use a small open economy general equilibrium model to analyse the effects of a fiscal devaluation in an EMU country. The model has been calibrated for the Spanish economy, which is a good example of the advantages of a change in the tax mix given that its tax system shows a positive bias in the ratio of social security contributions over consumption taxes. The preliminary empirical evidence for European countries shows that this bias was negatively correlated with the current account balance in the expansionary years leading up to the 2009 crisis, a period when many EMU members accumulated large external imbalances. Our simulation results point to significant positive effects of a fiscal devaluation on GDP and employment similar to the ones that could be obtained with an ex-change rate devaluation. However, although the effects in terms of GDP and employment are similar, the composition effects of fiscal and nominal devaluations are not alike. In both cases, there is an improvement in net exports, but the effects on domestic and external demand are quite different.

Convergence in the OECD: Transitional Dynamics or Narrowing Steady-State Differences?

In this article we show that the picture emerging from models that allow for generalized parameter heterogeneity in convergence equations changes our view of the convergence process within the OECD. Estimation methods that allow for non- or partial heterogeneity stress the importance of transitional dynamics. Thus the observed reduction in the dispersion of per capita income is mostly explained by transitional dynamics. When generalized parameter heterogeneity is allowed for, we find that the observed narrowing of incomes has little bearing on transitional dynamics. Convergence in this case happens because the long-run features of these countries are becoming increasingly similar. (JEL C13, C23, O41, O57) Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Household Debt and Fiscal Multipliers

We study the size of government spending multipliers in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in which we allow for different levels of household indebtedness. The main results are: (a) the presence of impatient households and private debt helps to generate government spending multipliers greater than 1; (b) as financial conditions worsen, the size of the government spending multiplier falls; (c) conversely, employment, vacancies and unemployment multipliers are larger in a credit crunch; (d) the model explains the observed pattern of responses of labour market variables, housing prices and private debt to a fiscal shock reasonably well.

Rates of return to public and private capital: new estimates using nonlinear Euler equations

Results obtained by Otto and Voss show that public investment undertaken in Australia over recent decades satisfies conditions for intertemporal efficiency. This paper confirms this result, although lower output elasticities and rates of return to private and public capital are obtained. The reason for these results is that the earlier work is extended by estimating the parameter related to the elasticity of intertemporal substitution that was earlier restricted to a specific value. In fact, it is shown here that it is possible to obtain an economically reasonable (and statistically significant) estimate of this parameter by assuming that the stochastic discount factor for the representative firm is the same as for the representative consumer and equal to a gross real interest rate.

Instruments, rules and household debt: The effects of fiscal policy

In this paper we look at the interplay between the level of household leverage in the economy and fiscal policy. When the fiscal rule is defined on lump-sum transfers, government spending or consumption taxes, the impact multipliers of transitory fiscal shocks become substantially amplified in an environment of easy access to credit by impatient consumers. However, when the government reacts to debt deviations by raising distortionary taxes on income, labour or capital, the effects of household debt on the size of the impact output multipliers vanish or even reverse. We also find that differences in fiscal multipliers between high and low indebtedness regimes belong basically to the short run, whereas the long-run multipliers are barely affected by the level of household debt in the economy. Finally, we find that fiscal shocks exert an unequal welfare effect on impatient and patient households that can even be of opposite signs.

Long-Run and Business Cycle Factors of the Spanish Economy

The construction of a model for simulation and policy evaluation of the Spanish economy constitutes a far-reaching project. This research task involves the specification of the behavioural equations that better describe the economy, as will be explained in the next chapter. Growth and cyclical regularities impose several restrictions on the specification and calibration of a useful general equilibrium model. For this reason much effort is needed in the analysis of the long-and short-run stylised factors of the Spanish economy. Thus throughout this chapter we shall study what has been behind the pattern of growth of the Spanish economy in recent decades, what has determined its labour productivity and what are the special features characterising business cycles in Spain.

Job Creation in Spain

The Spanish economy enjoyed a prolonged period of high growth between 1994 and 2007, characterised by extensive job creation. From the1960s to thee arly 1990s thenumbe r of jobs in theSpanish economy had fluctuated around a steady level of some 13 million. This led many people to support the idea that the Spanish economy could never break through this ceiling. However, between 1994 and 2007 the labour market saw an increase in employment from 13.3 to 20.6 million workers. This great modernation period brought the Spanish economy historically low interest rates and an expansion of credit facilities, which helped to sustain a vigorous and prolonged path of both private consumption and investment growth. Spain also managed to reduce public debt to a previously unknown level of around 30 per cent, and turned endemic public deficits into surpluses, reaching 2 percentage points of GDP in 2007. Throughout this expansionary process the labour force increased considerably as a result of sustained immigration flows; nevertheless, the unemployment rate converged to average European levels. In this sense, the rate of unemployment fell from around 20 per cent in the mid-1990s to a level of 8 per cent in 2007. For the first time since the first big oil price shock in the 1970s, Spanish unemployment was similar to the averagein theEurope an Union.