José Luis Macías

Repeated volcanic disasters in Prehispanic time at Popocatépetl, central Mexico: Past key to the future?

The Holocene eruptive history of Popocatepetl volcano is characterized by recurrent voluminous Plinian eruptions every 1000 to 3000 yr, the most recent of which destroyed human settlements. Major eruptions occurred between 3195 and 2830 B.C., 800 and 215 B.C., and A.D. 675 and 1095. The three eruptions followed a similar pattern and started with minor ash fall and ash flows. The eruptions reached their peak with a main Plinian pulse that produced deposition of a pumice fall, the emplacement of hot ash flows, and finally extensive mudflows. Each time the area of devastation had become repopulated, before being devastated once again. During the last eruption several settlements, including Cholula (a major urban center), were inundated by lahars. A scenario of the possible recurrence of an eruption of similar magnitude, which would have disastrous consequences for the now highly populated areas around Popocatepetl, should be considered seriously in any volcano emergency contingency plan. This is especially important because more than one million people are living within a radius of 35 km around the volcano (the outskirts of Mexico City are at a distance of 40 km), and Popocatepetl resumed emitting ash on December 21, 1994, after decades of dormancy.

Debris avalanches and debris flows transformed from collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico – behavior, and implications for hazard assessment

Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatepetl, Jocotitlan, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E^W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area. = 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Miocene to Recent structural evolution of the Nevado de Toluca volcano region, Central Mexico

Based on aerial photography, satellite imagery, and detailed field work, a geological and structural model of Nevado de Toluca and its surroundings is presented. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is built upon the intersection of three complex fault systems of different age, orientation, and kinematics. These systems from the older to the younger are: (a) The Taxco–Queretaro Fault System (NNW–SSE) with clear expression south of the volcano; (b) The San Antonio Fault System (NE–SW) that runs between the San Antonio and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes; and (c) The Tenango Fault System (E–W) located to the east of Nevado de Toluca volcano. Our field data, supported by previous studies, suggest that these systems have coexisted since the late Miocene. In addition, the stratigraphy, chronology, and kinematics of fault planes point to the existence of at least three main deformation events that have affected the region since the late Miocene. During the early Miocene, an extensional phase with the same deformation style as the Basin and Range tectonics of northern Mexico caused the formation of horsts and grabens south of Nevado de Toluca and allowed the intrusion of sub-vertical dikes oriented NW–SE and NNW–SSE. During the middle Miocene, a transcurrent episode generated NE–SW faults that presented two main motions: the first movement was left-lateral with a σ3 oriented NW–SE and later turned into normal through a counter-clockwise rotation of σ3 up to a N–S position. The latest deformation phase started during the late Pliocene and produced oblique extension (σ3 oriented NE–SW) along E–W-trending faults that later changed to pure extension by shifting of σ3 to a N–S orientation. These faults appear to control the late Pleistocene to Holocene monogenetic volcanism, the flank collapses of Nevado de Toluca volcano and the seismic activity of the region.

The 10.5 ka Plinian eruption of Nevado de Toluca volcano, Mexico: Stratigraphy and hazard implications

During the late Pleistocene, a large Plinian eruption from Nevado de Toluca volcano produced a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits known as the Upper Toluca Pumice. This eruption began with a phreatomagmatic phase that emplaced a hot pyroclastic flow (F0) on the east and northern flanks of the volcano. Eruption decompressed the magmatic system, almost immediately allowing the formation of a 25-km-high Plinian column that was dispersed by winds predominantly 70° to the northeast (PC0). Next, three other Plinian columns were dispersed in a northeast to east direction, reaching heights of 39, 42, and 28 km, resulting in fall layers (PC1, PC2, and PC3), respectively. These Plinian phases were interrupted several times by phreatomagmatic and collapse events that emplaced pyroclastic flows (F1, F2, and F3) and surges (S1 and S2), mainly on the eastern and northern flanks of the volcano. The eruption ended with the extrusion of a crystal-rich dacitic dome at the vent. The juvenile components of the Upper Toluca Pumice sequence are white, gray, and banded pumice, and gray lithic clasts of dacitic composition (63%–66% SiO2) and minor accidental lithic fragments. The fall deposits (PC1 and PC2) covered a minimum area of 2000 km2 and constitute a total estimated volume of 14 km3 (∼6 km3 DRE [dense-rock equivalent]). The mass eruption rate ranged from 3 × 107 to 5 × 108 kg/s, and total mass was 1.26 × 1013 kg. Charcoal found within Upper Toluca Pumice yielded an age of 10,500 14C yr B.P. (12,800–12,100 14C calibrated yr B.P.), somewhat younger than the earlier reported age of ca. 11,600 14C yr B.P. This new age for the pumice falls within the Younger Dryas cooling event. The eruption emplaced 1.5 m of pebble-sized pumice in the City of Toluca region and ∼50 cm of medium to fine sand in the Mexico City region. Distal lahar deposits derived from the Upper Toluca Pumice event incorporated mammoth bones and other mammals in the basin of Mexico. A future event of this magnitude would disrupt the lives of 30 million people now living in these cities and their surroundings.

The cohesive Naranjo debris-flow deposit (10 km3):: A dam breakout flow derived from the Pleistocene debris-avalanche deposit of Nevado de Colima Volcano (México)

Abstract Mass movement processes on volcanic terrains such as landslides and debris avalanches can cause the obstruction of main drainages producing the formation of temporary dams. A good example of this occurred 18.5 ka ago when the eastern flank of the Nevado de Colima Volcano collapsed producing a debris-avalanche deposit that was previously described as one of the largest in the world. The deposit extended from the volcanic summit as far as the Pacific coast, 120 km away. New stratigraphic, sedimentological, and componentry data suggest that the volcanic collapse of Nevado de Colima resulted in a debris avalanche that traveled 20 km southeast to the Naranjo River. There it crashed against a topographic barrier consisting of Cretaceous limestones (Cerro la Carbonera) and the flow direction was diverted to the south down the Naranjo River channel for another 25 km before the avalanche came to a halt. The obstruction of the drainage produced a temporary dam that stored ca. 1 km3 of water and deposited fluvial and slack-water sediments. Some time after the damming, the accumulated water-sediment load was able to overtop the obstructing material and to release a breakout flow with a calculated initial flow discharge of 3.5 million m3/s. The resulting flood (cohesive debris flow) followed the channel of the Naranjo River and, due to the high erodibility of the channel and introduction of substrate material, the debris flow progressively increased its volume up to 10 km3, six times its initial volume. This study highlights the relevance of evaluating the potential remobilization of debris-avalanche deposits to initiate large magnitude cohesive debris flows. Therefore, the hazard and risk analysis of future potential events of this nature must consider the pre-eruption conditions and the topography surrounding a volcano.

Environmental Characteristics of Lake Tecocomulco, northern basin of Mexico, for the last 50,000 years

Paleoenvironmental studies have documented the late Pleistocene to Holocene evolution of the lakes in the central and southern parts of the basin of Mexico (Texcoco and Chalco). No information was available, however, for the lakes in the north-eastern part of this basin. The north-eastern and the central and southern areas represent, at present, different environmental conditions: an important gradient exists between the dry north and the moister south. To investigate the late Pleistocene to Holocene characteristics of the north-eastern lakes in the basin of Mexico two parallel cores (TA and TB) were drilled at the SE shore of Lake Tecocomulco. Stratigraphy, magnetic properties, granulometry, diatom and pollen analyses performed on these sediments indicate that the lake experienced a series of changes between ca. > 42,000 yr BP and present. Chronological control is given by five radiocarbon determinations. The base of the record is represented by a thick, rhyolitic air-fall tephra that could be older than ca. 50,000 yr BP. After this Plininan event, and until ca. 42,000 yr BP, Lake Tecocomulco was a moderately deep, freshwater lake surrounded by extended pine forests that suggest the presence of cooler and moister conditions than present. Between ca. 42,000 and 37,000 yr BP, the lake became shallower but with important fluctuations and pollen suggests slightly warmer conditions. Between ca. 37,000 and 30,000 yr BP the lake experienced two relatively deep phases separated by a dry interval. A second Plinian eruption, represented in the sequence by a dacitic an air-fall tephra layer dated at 31,000 yr BP, occurred in the area by the end of this dry episode. Between ca. 30,000 and 25,7000 yr BP Tecocomulco was a fresh to slightly alkaline lake with a trend towards lower level. After ca. 25,700 yr BP very low lake levels are inferred, and after ca. 16,000 yr BP the data indicate the presence of a very dry environment that was persistent until the middle Holocene. After 3,500 yr BP lacustrine conditions were re-established and the vegetation cover shows a change towards higher percentages of herbaceous taxa.

Emplacement of pyroclastic flows during the 1998–1999 eruption of Volcán de Colima, México

After three years of quiescence, Volcan de Colima reawakened with increasing seismic and rock fall activity that reached its peak on November 20, 1998, when a new lava dome forced its way to the volcano’s summit. The new lava rapidly reached the S–SW edge of the summit area, beginning the generation of Merapi-type pyroclastic flows that traveled down La Lumbre, and the El Cordoban Western and Eastern ravines, reaching distances of 3, 4.5, and 3 km, respectively. On December 1, 1998, the lava flow split into three fronts that in early 1999 had reached 2.8, 3.1, and 2.5 km in length, advancing down the El Cordoban ravines. The lava flow fronts disaggregated into blocks forming pyroclastic flows. One of the best examples occurred on December 10, 1998. As the lava flow ceased moving in early 1999, activity became more explosive. Strong blasts were recorded on February 10, May 10, and July 17, 1999. The last event developed a 10-km-high eruptive column from which a pyroclastic flow developed from the base, traveling 3.3 km SW from the summit into the San Antonio–Montegrande ravines. Regardless of the mechanism of pyroclastic-flow generation, each flow immediately segregated into a basal avalanche that moved as a granular flow and an upper ash cloud in which particles were sustained in turbulent suspension. When the basal avalanche lost velocity and eventually stopped, the upper ash cloud continued to move independently as a dilute pyroclastic flow that produced a massive pyroclastic-flow deposit and an upper dune-bedded surge deposit. The dilute pyroclastic flow scorched and toppled maguey plants and trees, and sandblasted vegetation in the direction of the flow. At the end of the dilute pyroclastic-flow path, the suspended particles lifted off in a cloud from which a terminal ash fall was deposited. The basal avalanche emplaced block-and-ash flow deposits (up to 8 m thick) that filled the main ravines and consisted of several flow units. Each flow unit was massive, monolithologic, matrix-supported, and had a clast-supported steep front (ca. 1.5 to 2 m thick) composed of boulders up to 1.7 m in diameter. The juvenile lithic clasts had an average density of 1800 kg/m3. The dilute pyroclastic flow emplaced overbank deposits, found on valley margins or beyond the tip of block-and-ash flow deposits. They consist from bottom to top of a massive medium to coarse sand-size flow layer (2–4 cm thick), a dune-bedded surge layer (2–10 cm thick), and a massive silt-size layer (0.5 cm thick). The total estimated volume of the pyroclastic-flow deposits produced during the 1998–1999 eruption is 24×105 m3.

Sta. Cruz Atizapán: a 22-ka lake level record and climatic implications for the late Holocene human occupation in the Upper Lerma Basin, Central Mexico

Abstract The Upper Lerma is a high altitude basin with three water bodies linked by the Lerma River. This basin has a long archaeological history, characterised by the establishment of settlements within the lacustrine ecosystem itself (man-made islands) during the late Classic to Epiclassic (AD 550–900), which were abandoned by the end of the Epiclassic. The Upper Lerma is an ideal site to study climatic and environmental conditions during the period of human occupation, as well as during the last full-glacial/interglacial cycle. Two sediment cores (STCRZ: 9.54 m and Almoloya del Rio: 5.12 m) were recovered from the highest lake in the system (Chignahuapan). Ten radiocarbon dates provide chronologies for these sequences in which the Tres Cruces Tephra (c. 8500 yr BP) and the Upper Toluca Pumice (c. 11 600 yr BP) serve as stratigraphic markers. Magnetic properties, loss on ignition, and diatom analyses were used to infer lake level fluctuations during the last c. 22 000 yr BP. The Late Pleistocene environment was characterised by a freshwater lake. High sediment input and variable lake levels are recorded during the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 19 000–16 000 yr BP), while slightly higher water levels and reduced sediment input are recorded during the Late Glacial (c. 16 000–11 000 yr BP). A short episode of shallow conditions is inferred by c. 12 400 yr BP. Holocene lake levels were generally shallower, and three episodes of very shallow, slightly alkaline waters are identified. The first dates to the early Holocene (c. 11 000–7000 yr BP). The second is centred at c. 4600/4500 yr BP. The third occurred between c. 2000 (?) and 800 yr BP (c. 200 BC–AD 1100, calibrated ages) with very shallow water after c. 1400 yr BP (AD 550, calibrated age). Lake level increased after c. 800 yr BP. These three shallow water events are also recorded at other sites in Central Mexico indicating regional climatic trends rather than local events. A deeper water phase occurred between 7000 and 6400/6200 yr BP. The last shallow water phase correlates with the Classic and Epiclassic periods (AD 200–900), and shallowest conditions occurred in the late Classic to Epiclassic (c. AD 550–900), when the construction of man-made islands reached a peak. An increase in lake level after c. 800 yr BP (AD 1100 calibrated age) may have led to the abandonment of this life strategy.

Chemical composition of fumarolic gases and spring discharges from El Chichòn volcano, Mexico: causes and implications of the changes detected over the period 1998–2000

Abstract Since the March–April 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano, intense hydrothermal activity has characterised the 1-km-wide summit crater. This mainly consists of mud and boiling pools, fumaroles, which are mainly located in the northwestern bank of the crater lake. During the period 1998–2000, hot springs and fumaroles discharging inside the crater and from the southeastern outer flank (Agua Caliente) were collected for chemical analyses. The observed chemical fluctuations suggest that the physico-chemical boundary conditions regulating the thermodynamic equilibria of the deep rock/fluid interactions have changed with time. The chemical composition of the lake water, characterised in the period 1983–1997 by high Na + , Cl − , Ca 2+ and SO 4 2− contents, experienced a dramatic change in 1998–1999, turning from a Na + –Cl − - to a Ca 2+ –SO 4 2− -rich composition. In June 2000, a relatively sharp increase in Na + and Cl − contents was observed. At the same time, SO 2 /H 2 S ratios and H 2 and CO contents in most gas discharges increased with respect to the previous two years of observations, suggesting either a new input of deep-seated fluids or local variations of the more surficial hydrothermal system. Migration of gas manifestations, enhanced number of emission spots and variations in both gas discharge flux and outlet temperatures of the main fluid manifestations were also recorded. The magmatic-hydrothermal system of El Chichon is probably related to interaction processes between a deep magmatic source and a surficial cold aquifer; an important role may also be played by the interaction of the deep fluids with the volcanic rocks and the sedimentary (limestone and evaporites) basement. The chemical and physical changes recorded in 1998–2000 were possibly due to variations in the permeability of the conduit system feeding the fluid discharges at surface, as testified by the migration of gas and water emanations. Two different scenarios can be put forward for the volcanic evolution of El Chichon: (1) build-up of an infra-crater dome that may imply a future eruption in terms of tens to hundreds of years; (2) minor phreatic–phreatomagmatic events whose prediction and timing is more difficult to constrain. This suggests that, unlike the diminished volcanic activity at El Chichon after the 1982 paroxistic event, the volcano-hydrothermal fluid discharges need to be more constantly monitored with regular and more frequent geochemical sampling and, at the same time, a permanent network of seismic stations should be installed.

Volcanic hazards in the Mexico City metropolitan area from eruptions at Popocatépetl, Nevado de Toluca, and Jocotitlán stratovolcanoes and monogenetic scoria cones in the Sierra Chichinautzin Volcanic Field

Tephrochronological studies carried out over the past decade in the area surrounding Mexico City have yielded a wealth of new radiocarbon ages from eruptions at Popocatepetl, Nevado de Toluca, and Jocotitlan stratovolcanoes and monogenetic scoria cones in the Sierra Chichinautzin Volcanic Field. These dates allow us to constrain the frequency and types of eruptions that have affected this area during the course of the past 25,000 yr. They have important implications for archaeology as well as future hazard evaluations. Late Pleistocene and Holocene volcanic activities at the stratovolcanoes are characterized by recurrent cataclysmic Plinian eruptions of considerable magnitude. They have affected vast areas, including zones that today are occupied by large population centers at Puebla, Toluca, and Mexico City. During Holocene time, Nevado de Toluca and Jocotitlan have each experienced only one Plinian eruption, ca. 10,500 yr B.P. and 9700 yr B.P. respectively. During the same period of time, Popocatepetl had at least four such eruptions, ca. 8000, 5000, 2100, and 1100 yr B.P. Therefore, the recurrence interval for Plinian eruptions is less than 2000 yr in this region. The last two Plinian eruptions at Popocatepetl are of particular interest because they destroyed several human settlements in the Basin of Puebla. Evidence for these disasters stems from pottery shards and other artifacts covered by Plinian pumice falls, ash-flow deposits, and lahars on the plains to the east and northeast of the volcanic edifice. Several monogenetic scoria cones located within the Sierra Chichinautzin Volcanic Field at the southern margin of Mexico City were also dated by the radiocarbon method in recent years. Most previous research in this area was concentrated on Xitle scoria cone, whose lavas destroyed and buried the pre-Hispanic town of Cuicuilco ca. 1665 ± 35 yr B.P. The new dates indicate that the recurrence interval for monogenetic eruptions in the close vicinity of Mexico City is also <2000 yr. The longest lava flow associated with a scoria cone was erupted by Guespalapa and reached 24 km from its source; total areas covered by lava flows from each monogenetic eruption typically range between 30 and 80 km2, and total erupted volumes range between 0.5 and 2 km3/cone. An average eruption rate for the entire Chichinautzin was estimated at ~0.5 km3/1000 yr. These findings are of great importance for archaeological as well as volcanic hazard studies in this heavily populated region.