José Luis Molina González

A Bayesian Network Profiler for Wildfire Arsonists

Arson-caused wildfires have a rate of clarification that is extremely low compared to other criminal activities. This fact made evident the importance of developing methodologies to assist investigators in the criminal profiling. For that we introduce Bayesian Networks (BN), which have only recently be applied to criminal profiling and never to arsonists. We learn a BN from data and expert knowledge and, after validation, we use it to predict the profile (characteristics) of the offender from the information about a particular arson-caused wildfire, including confidence levels that represent expected probabilities.