José M Matos Martins

Real Options in Infrastructure: Revisiting the Literature

Infrastructure networks are essential to support the world’s economic development. Governments around the world, in both developed and developing economies, have dedicated significant shares of the public budget to infrastructure development and refurbishment. Nevertheless, there has been an increasing concern about the selection of economically more interesting projects. The large sunk investments, as well as the uncertainty surrounding these projects, require new and more sophisticated investment analysis techniques. Simultaneously, there has been a recent trend towards increasing the flexibility in these projects to allow a more progressive adaptation to changing market conditions, thus decreasing the overall risk affecting these investments. The flexibility is introduced through real options that include the possibility of change that one develops in the planning and design stage, allowing the infrastructure (and service) to cope with future uncertainty. This paper intends to provide an overview of the current literature on real options, thereby fulfilling a gap in current academic literature. It addresses the main types of options and valuation mechanisms and provides an extensive overview of their application to the infrastructure sector.

Marine Radiocarbon Reservoir Effect in Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene Coastal Waters off Northern Iberia

Radiocarbon dating of closely associated marine mollusk shells and terrestrial material (mammal bones or charred wood) collected from archaeological contexts in northern Atlantic Iberian coastal areas is used to quantify the marine 14C reservoir effect (ΔR) for the coastal waters off the Cantabrian coast (northern Iberia). For the first time, ΔR values were reliably determined for these coastal waters, and also for the first time a ΔR was calculated for the Late Pleistocene in Atlantic Iberia. Pairs of coeval samples of different carbon reservoirs selected from Upper Paleolithic (Late Pleistocene) and Mesolithic (Early Holocene) contexts yielded ΔR weighted mean values of −117±70 14C yr and −105±21 14C yr, respectively. These values show oceanographic conditions characterized by a reduced offset between atmospheric and surface water 14C contents, suggesting a nonexistent or a very weak upwelling and some stratification of the water column. Similar oceanographic conditions have been recorded in other areas of Atlantic Iberia during the Holocene, such as off Andalusian and northwestern Galician coasts. Results not only provide useful information on environmental conditions but also a framework to obtain more precise and reliable absolute chronologies for the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene in northern Iberia.

Flexibility in planning and development of a container terminal: an application of an American-style call option

ABSTRACT The prosperity and social progress of developed and developing economies is highly dependent on the existence of efficient transport infrastructure. Nevertheless, current budgetary constraints are jeopardizing the necessary investments in new or existing infrastructure. New models for planning and managing infrastructure are now necessary to overcome the lack of public economic resources available. Port infrastructure is no exception and, due to the vast number of uncertainties involving these projects, it is relevant to maximize the capture of the latent value of flexible options. Incorporating flexibility in these projects, prior to the implementation phase, can be a solution that allows port managers to address future uncertainties and mitigate risk exposure. This paper analyzes the incorporation of flexibility in port planning through the use of an American call option to the physical capacity expansion problem. The rationale is to implement a flexible expansion plan, through options that can be exercised at any given time, that are able to deal with uncertainty in demand. The paper uses a case study – Terminal Container of Ferrol, in Spain – and the results support the hypothesis that imbedded flexibility will robustly increase the net present value of the project.

A cronologia relativa e absoluta da ocupação sidérica do Castelo de Castro Marim

A diacronia da ocupacao da Idade do Ferro do Castelo de Castro Marim foi estabelecida tendo em consideracao a sequencia estratigrafica observada e, naturalmente, os espolios recolhidos nessa mesma sequencia. Com base nesses dados, foram ja apresentadas propostas de atribuicao cronologica as quatro fases de ocupacao siderica que pudemos caracterizar tambem relativamente aos espolios e a arquitectura. A recolha de material orgânico em todos os niveis da sequencia estratigrafica permitiu obter datacoes absolutas, efectuadas sobre carvoes e faunas malacologicas. Neste trabalho, os dados da cronologia de radiocarbono obtidos sao apresentados, sendo cruzados e discutidos com os que os restantes elementos possibilitaram. A relacao entre as datacoes de 14C e as obtidas pela analise morfologica dos espolios recolhidos ao longo da sequencia estratigrafica permite estabelecer bases consideravelmente mais solidas para a evolucao diacronica da Idade do Ferro do Castelo de Castro Marim. In this work, the data from the radiocarbon chronology are presented and discussed by themselves and related with the others. The relationship between the 14C dates and those obtained by morphological analysis of the materials collected along the stratigraphic sequence bring more solid bases to analyze the diachronic evolution of Castro Marim Iron Age.

MARINE RADIOCARBON RESERVOIR EFFECT OF COASTAL WATERS OFF CAPE VERDE ARCHIPELAGO

Quantification of the marine radiocarbon reservoir effect ( Δ R) is essential in order to calibrate conventional 14C dates from marine shell samples with reliability. Δ R also provides information concerning the intensity of coastal upwelling in marine regions influenced by this phenomenon. 14C ages of closely associated marine samples (mollusk shells) and terrestrial samples (goat bones) from Sao Vicente Island, Cape Verde Archipelago, permitted the first calculation of the marine 14C reservoir effect in this region. A Δ R weighted mean value of 70 ± 70 14C yr was obtained. This value is in accordance with the previously published oceanographic conditions of the region indicating the existence of a seasonal active upwelling regime.