Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes

Multiple injuries after earthquakes: a retrospective analysis on 1,871 injured patients from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

IntroductionMultiple injuries have been highlighted as an important clinical dimension of the injury profile following earthquakes, but studies are scarce. We investigated the pattern and combination of injuries among patients with two injuries following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. We also described the general injury profile, causes of injury and socio-demographic characteristics of the injured patients.MethodsA retrospective hospital-based analysis of 1,871 earthquake injured patients, totaling 3,177 injuries, admitted between 12 and 31 May 2008 to the Peoples Hospital of Deyang city (PHDC). An electronic, webserver-based database with International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10-based classification of earthquake-related injury diagnoses (IDs), anatomical sites and additional background variables of the inpatients was used. We analyzed this dataset for injury profile and number of injuries per patient. We then included all patients (856) with two injuries for more in-depth analysis. Possible spatial anatomical associations were determined a priori. Cross-tabulation and more complex frequency matrices for combination analyses were used to investigate the injury profile.ResultsOut of the 1,871 injured patients, 810 (43.3%) presented with a single injury. The rest had multiple injuries; 856 (45.8%) had two, 169 (9.0%) patients had three, 32 (1.7%) presented with four injuries, while only 4 (0.2%) were diagnosed with five injuries. The injury diagnoses of patients presenting with two-injuries showed important anatomical intra-site or neighboring clustering, which explained 49.1% of the combinations. For fractures, the result was even more marked as spatial clustering explained 57.9% of the association pattern. The most frequent combination of IDs was a double-fracture, affecting 20.7% of the two-injury patients (n = 177). Another 108 patients (12.6%) presented with fractures associated with crush injury and organ-soft tissue injury. Of the 3,177 injuries, 1,476 (46.5%) were fractures. Most injuries were located in the head (22.9%) and lower extremities (30.8%).ConclusionsMultiple injuries are put forward as an important component of the injury profile after this earthquake. A pattern of injury combinations and spatial aggregation of injuries was also found. Clinical diagnosis and treatment should be adapted to care of these patients. More studies are needed to generalize these findings.

Child malnutrition and recurrent flooding in rural eastern India: a community-based survey

Objectives This study aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between exposure to floods and malnutrition in children aged 6–59 months in rural India. Research has focused exclusively on Bangladeshi children, and few controlled epidemiological studies are available. Method A community-based cross-sectional study of child nutritional status was carried out in 14 flooded and 18 non-flooded villages of Jagatsinghpur district (Orissa) within one month of the September 2008 floods, and similarly affected by flooding in August 2006. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 757 households in the flooded villages and 816 in the non-flooded communities. Data used in this study were from those households with children aged 6–59 months. In total, 191 and 161 children were measured, respectively. The association between various malnutrition indicators and the exposure to floods was assessed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results Adjusted analyses revealed that children in flooded households were more likely stunted compared with those in non-flooded ones (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.60; 95% CI 1.05 to 2.44). The prevalence of underweight was also higher in children living in the flooded communities (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.86; 95% CI 1.04 to 3.30). Further analyses found that the 26–36-month flooded cohort, thus those children younger than 1 year during the precedent flood in August 2006, attained the largest difference in levels of stunting compared with the unexposed group of the same age. Conclusion Exposure to floods is associated with long-term malnutrition in these rural communities of Orissa, India. Children exposed to floods during their first year of life presented higher levels of chronic malnutrition. Long-term malnutrition prevention programmes after floods should be implemented in flood-prone areas.

Measuring psychological resilience to disasters: are evidence-based indicators an achievable goal?

Despite rising interest on the concept of societal resilience and its measurement, little has been done to provide operational indicators. Importantly, an evidence-based approach to assess the suitability of indicators remains unexplored. Furthermore few approaches that exist do not investigate indicators of psychological resilience, which is emerging as an important component of societal resilience to disasters. Disasters are events which overwhelm local capacities, often producing human losses, injury and damage to the affected communities. As climate hazards and disasters are likely to increase in the coming decades, strengthening the capacity of societies to withstand these shocks and recover quickly is vital. In this review, we search the Web of Knowledge to summarize the evidence on indicators of psychological resilience to disasters and provided a qualitative assessment of six selected studies. We find that an evidence-based approach using features from systematic reviews is useful to compile, select and assess the evidence and elucidate robust indicators. We conclude that strong social support received after a disaster is associated with an increased psychological resilience whereas a female gender is connected with a decrease in the likelihood of a resilient outcome. These results are consistent across disaster settings and cultures and are representative of approximately 13 million disaster-exposed civilians of adult age. An approach such as this that collects and evaluates evidence will allow indicators of resilience to be much more revealing and useful in the future. They will provide a robust basis to prioritize indicators to act upon through intersectoral policies and post-disaster public health interventions.

Civilian deaths from weapons used in the Syrian conflict

The ongoing Syrian conflict is one of the largest humanitarian crises of the 21st century so far. Debarati Guha-Sapir and colleagues analyse the impact of weapons on civilian deaths, with a focus on women and children

Patterns of civilian and child deaths due to war-related violence in Syria: a comparative analysis from the Violation Documentation Center dataset, 2011–16

BACKGROUND Since March, 2011, the Syrian civil war has lowered life expectancy by as much as 20 years. We describe demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of direct deaths of civilians and opposition combatants from conflict-related violence in 6 years of war. METHODS We analysed conflict-related violent deaths with complete information on date, place, and cause of death and demographic group occurring from March 18, 2011, to Dec 31, 2016, recorded by the Violation Documentation Center (VDC). We included civilian and combatant deaths in all Syrian governorates, excluding government-controlled areas. We did not include detainees and missing persons, nor deaths from siege conditions or insufficient medical care. We categorised deaths based on VDC weapon type. We used χ2 testing to compare deaths from different weapons in civilian men, women, boys, and girls and adult and child combatants. We analysed deaths by governorate and over time. FINDINGS The VDC recorded 143 630 conflict-related violent deaths with complete information between March 18, 2011, and Dec 31, 2016. Syrian civilians constituted 101 453 (70·6%) of the deaths compared with 42 177 (29·4%) opposition combatants. Direct deaths were caused by wide-area weapons of shelling and air bombardments in 58 099 (57·3%) civilians, including 8285 (74·6%) civilian women and 13 810 (79·4%) civilian children, and in 4058 (9·6%) opposition combatants. Proportions of children among civilian deaths increased from 8·9% (388 of 4254 civilian deaths) in 2011 to 19·0% (4927 of 25 972) in 2013 and to 23·3% (2662 of 11 444) in 2016. Of 7566 deaths from barrel bombs, 7351 (97·2%) were civilians, of whom 2007 (27·3%) were children. Of 20 281 deaths by execution, 18 747 (92·4%) were civilians and 1534 (7·6%) were opposition combatants. Compared with opposition child soldiers who were male (n=333), deaths of civilian male children (n=11 730) were caused more often by air bombardments (39·2% vs 5·4%, p<0·0001) and shelling (37·3% vs 13·2%, p<0·0001) and less often by shooting (12·5% vs 76·0%, p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Aerial bombing and shelling rapidly became primary causes of direct deaths of women and children and had disproportionate lethal effects on civilians, calling into question the use of wide-area explosive weapons in urban areas. Increased reliance on aerial bombing by the Syrian Government and international partners is likely to have contributed to findings that children were killed in increasing proportions over time, ultimately comprising a quarter of civilian deaths in 2016. The inordinate proportion of civilians among the executed is consistent with deliberate tactics to terrorise civilians. Deaths from barrel bombs were overwhelmingly civilian rather than opposition combatants, suggesting indiscriminate or targeted warfare contrary to international humanitarian law and possibly constituting a war crime. FUNDING None.

Flood-Exposure is Associated with Higher Prevalence of Child Undernutrition in Rural Eastern India.

Background: Child undernutrition and flooding are highly prevalent public health issues in Asia, yet epidemiological studies investigating this association are lacking. Methods: To investigate to what extent floods exacerbate poor nutritional status in children and identify most vulnerable groups, we conducted a population-based survey of children aged 6–59 months inhabiting flooded and non-flooded communities of the Jagatsinghpur district, Odisha (India), one year after large floods in 2008. Anthropometric measurements on 879 children and child, parental and household level variables were collected through face-to-face interviews in September 2009. The association between flooding and the prevalence of wasting, stunting and underweight was examined using weighted multivariate logistic regression for children inhabiting communities exposed solely to floods in 2008 and those communities repeatedly flooded (2006 and 2008) controlling for parental education and other relevant variables. We examined the influence of age on this association. Propensity score matching was conducted to test the robustness of our findings. Results: The prevalence of wasting among children flooded in 2006 and 2008 was 51.6%, 41.4% in those flooded only in 2008, and 21.2% in children inhabiting non-flooded communities. Adjusting by confounders, the increased prevalence relative to non-flooded children in the exposed groups were 2.30 (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR); 95% CI: 1.86, 2.85) and 1.94 (95% CI: 1.43, 2.63), respectively. Among repeatedly flooded communities, cases of severe wasting in children were 3.37 times more prevalent than for children inhabiting in those non-flooded (95% CI: 2.34, 4.86) and nearly twice more prevalent relative to those flooded only once. Those children younger than one year during previous floods in 2006 showed the largest difference in prevalence of wasting compared to their non-flooded counterparts (aPR: 4.01; 95% CI: 1.51, 10.63). Results were robust to alternative adjusted models and in propensity score matching analyses. For similar analyses, no significant associations were found for child stunting, and more moderate effects were observed in the case of child underweight. Conclusions: Particularly in low-resource or subsistence-farming rural settings, long-lasting nutritional response in the aftermath of floods should be seriously considered to counteract the long-term nutritional effects on children, particularly infants, and include their mothers on whom they are dependent. The systematic monitoring of nutritional status in these groups might help to tailor efficient responses in each particular context.

Early Marriage and Barriers to Contraception among Syrian Refugee Women in Lebanon: A Qualitative Study.

The Syrian conflict has displaced five million individuals outside their country with Lebanon hosting the largest numbers per capita. Around 24% of Syrian refugees fleeing to Lebanon are women of reproductive age (15–49). Yet, a better understanding of the sexual and reproductive health needs of Syrian refugee women in Lebanon is required to improve provided services. Eleven focus group discussions were conducted in four regions of Lebanon with 108 Syrian refugee women of reproductive age. Thematic analysis was used to examine the data. Interviewed women were mainly adults. They believed that, in Lebanon, they were subjected to early marriage compared to the norm in Syria due to their financial situation and uncertainty. Cost was reported as the main barrier to use contraception in Lebanon but some Syrian refugee women were not aware of free services covering sexual and reproductive health. In general, marriage, pregnancy, and family planning behavior of Syrian refugee women in Lebanon slightly differed from those in Syria pre-conflict in terms of age of marriage, conception subsequent to marriage, and contraception method. Hence, interventions to increase awareness of subsidized sexual and reproductive health services, including free contraceptives at primary health care centers, and those targeting protection from early marriage of Syrian refugee women in Lebanon are strongly recommended.

Drought, conflict and children’s undernutrition in Ethiopia 2000–2013: a meta-analysis

Abstract Objective To estimate the prevalence of childhood wasting and to investigate the effects of drought and conflict on wasting in crisis-affected areas within Ethiopia. Methods We searched the Complex Emergency Database for nutrition surveys carried out in Ethiopia over the period 2000–2013. We extracted data on the prevalence of wasting (weight-for-height z-scores below –2) among children aged 6–59 months for areas of Ethiopia that had sufficient data available. Data on any conflict events (irrespective of magnitude or impact) and episodes of seasonal drought affecting the survey areas were extracted from publicly available data sources. Random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis was used to synthesize the evidence from 231 small-scale surveys. Findings From the total sample of 175 607 children analysed, the pooled number of children wasted was 21 709. The posterior median prevalence of wasting was 11.0% (95% credible interval, CrI: 10.3–11.7) over the 14-year period. Compared with areas unaffected by drought, the estimated prevalence of wasting was higher in areas affected by moderate levels of drought (posterior odds ratio, OR: 1.34; 95% CrI: 1.05–1.72) but similar in severe drought-affected areas (OR: 0.96; 95% CrI: 0.68–1.35). Although the pooled prevalence of wasting was higher in conflict-affected than unaffected areas, the difference was not plausible (OR: 1.02; 95% CrI: 0.82–1.26). Conclusion Despite an overall declining trend, a wasting problem persists among children in Ethiopia. Conflict events did not have a major impact on childhood wasting. Nutrition interventions should go beyond severe drought-prone areas to incorporate areas where moderate droughts occur.

Stakeholders’ Perception on National Heatwave Plans and Their Local Implementation in Belgium and The Netherlands

National heatwave plans are aimed at reducing the avoidable human health consequences due to heatwaves, by providing warnings as well as improving communication between relevant stakeholders. The objective of this study was to assess the perceptions of key stakeholders within plans in Belgium and The Netherlands on their responsibilities, the partnerships, and the effectiveness of the local implementation in Brussels and Amsterdam. Key informant interviews were held with stakeholders that had an important role in development of the heatwave plan in these countries, or its implementation in Brussels or Amsterdam. Care organisations, including hospitals and elderly care organisations, had a lack of familiarity with the national heatwave plan in both cities, and prioritised heat the lowest. Some groups of individuals, specifically socially isolated individuals, are not sufficiently addressed by the current national heatwave plans and most local plans. Stakeholders reported that responsibilities were not clearly described and that the national plan does not describe tasks on a local level. We recommend to urgently increase awareness on the impact of heat on health among care organisations. More emphasis needs to be given to the variety of heat-risk groups. Stakeholders should be involved in the development of updates of the plans.

Health at the borders: Bayesian multilevel analysis of women’s malnutrition determinants in Ethiopia

Background Womens malnutrition, particularly undernutrition, remains an important public health challenge in Ethiopia. Although various studies examined the levels and determinants of womens nutritional status, the influence of living close to an international border on womens nutrition has not been investigated. Yet, Ethiopian borders are regularly affected by conflict and refugee flows, which might ultimately impact health. Objective To investigate the impact of living close to borders in the nutritional status of women in Ethiopia, while considering other important covariates. Design Our analysis was based on the body mass index (BMI) of 6,334 adult women aged 20-49 years, obtained from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A Bayesian multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to capture the clustered structure of the data and the possible correlation that may exist within and between clusters. Results After controlling for potential confounders, women living close to borders (i.e. ≤100 km) in Ethiopia were 59% more likely to be underweight (posterior odds ratio [OR]=1.59; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.32-1.90) than their counterparts living far from the borders. This result was robust to different choices of border delineation (i.e. ≤50, ≤75, ≤125, and ≤150 km). Women from poor families, those who have no access to improved toilets, reside in lowland areas, and are Muslim, were independently associated with underweight. In contrast, more wealth, higher education, older age, access to improved toilets, being married, and living in urban or lowlands were independently associated with overweight. Conclusions The problem of undernutrition among women in Ethiopia is most worrisome in the border areas. Targeted interventions to improve nutritional status in these areas, such as improved access to sanitation, economic and livelihood support, are recommended.Background Womens malnutrition, particularly undernutrition, remains an important public health challenge in Ethiopia. Although various studies examined the levels and determinants of womens nutritional status, the influence of living close to an international border on womens nutrition has not been investigated. Yet, Ethiopian borders are regularly affected by conflict and refugee flows, which might ultimately impact health. Objective To investigate the impact of living close to borders in the nutritional status of women in Ethiopia, while considering other important covariates. Design Our analysis was based on the body mass index (BMI) of 6,334 adult women aged 20-49 years, obtained from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A Bayesian multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to capture the clustered structure of the data and the possible correlation that may exist within and between clusters. Results After controlling for potential confounders, women living close to borders (i.e. ≤100 km) in Ethiopia were 59% more likely to be underweight (posterior odds ratio [OR]=1.59; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.32-1.90) than their counterparts living far from the borders. This result was robust to different choices of border delineation (i.e. ≤50, ≤75, ≤125, and ≤150 km). Women from poor families, those who have no access to improved toilets, reside in lowland areas, and are Muslim, were independently associated with underweight. In contrast, more wealth, higher education, older age, access to improved toilets, being married, and living in urban or lowlands were independently associated with overweight. Conclusions The problem of undernutrition among women in Ethiopia is most worrisome in the border areas. Targeted interventions to improve nutritional status in these areas, such as improved access to sanitation, economic and livelihood support, are recommended.Background Womens malnutrition, particularly undernutrition, remains an important public health challenge in Ethiopia. Although various studies examined the levels and determinants of womens nutritional status, the influence of living close to an international border on womens nutrition has not been investigated. Yet, Ethiopian borders are regularly affected by conflict and refugee flows, which might ultimately impact health. Objective To investigate the impact of living close to borders in the nutritional status of women in Ethiopia, while considering other important covariates. Design Our analysis was based on the body mass index (BMI) of 6,334 adult women aged 20–49 years, obtained from the 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). A Bayesian multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to capture the clustered structure of the data and the possible correlation that may exist within and between clusters. Results After controlling for potential confounders, women living close to borders (i.e. ≤100 km) in Ethiopia were 59% more likely to be underweight (posterior odds ratio [OR]=1.59; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.32–1.90) than their counterparts living far from the borders. This result was robust to different choices of border delineation (i.e. ≤50, ≤75, ≤125, and ≤150 km). Women from poor families, those who have no access to improved toilets, reside in lowland areas, and are Muslim, were independently associated with underweight. In contrast, more wealth, higher education, older age, access to improved toilets, being married, and living in urban or lowlands were independently associated with overweight. Conclusions The problem of undernutrition among women in Ethiopia is most worrisome in the border areas. Targeted interventions to improve nutritional status in these areas, such as improved access to sanitation, economic and livelihood support, are recommended.