José María Arranz

Duration data models, unemployment benefits and bias

Traditional approaches to measurement conditional probabilities of leaving welfare do not deal with unemployment benefits data in a proper way leading thus to biased estimates of unemployment–employment transition probabilities. In fact, these approaches overestimate hazard rates and hence underestimate the expected welfare duration.

TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS, DEATHS AND ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION

The main goal of this article is to analyse the relationship existing among prices of alcoholic beverages, alcohol consumption and traffic fatalities for the Spanish Autonomous Communities during the time interval 1998 to 2002. Among the main results, we highlight a positive correlation between alcohol consumption and traffic mortality rate. Basically, governments implement two kinds of policies to reduce the traffic mortality rate. One is oriented to control the supply of alcohol by increasing alcohol taxes. The other is oriented to preserve traffic security, increasing the number of sanctions for traffic rule infraction. We find evidence that both policies exert a positive influence in the reduction of traffic fatalities. There is no empirical evidence to indicate that being a novice driver increases the tendency to be involved in a mortal traffic accident.

Re-employment probabilities of unemployment benefit recipients

This article studies transitions out of unemployment for benefit recipients in Spain. We analyse the duration of unemployment, distinguishing between spells that end in recall (workers returning to the previous employer) and spells that end in exit to a new job. This distinction allows us to find that the recall hazard rate increases around the time of exhaustion of benefits. However, this happens only for workers receiving Unemployment Insurance (UI). Because we are unable to replicate this result for workers receiving Unemployment Assistance (UA), we believe the finding lends support to the hypothesis that in Spain firms and workers make a strategic use of UI.

How green was my valley: Earnings differentials and the changing distribution of wages in Spain

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the wage distribution in Spain, its evolution in recent years and the implications for increased wage dispersion. Accordingly, its attention focuses on the following issues: first, the paper investigates how personal, job and firm attributes affect the wages distribution and examine earnings differentials between and within groups of workers according to their individual and job characteristics throughout the conditional wage distribution; and second, the paper analyses whether the business cycle may influence the magnitude of these differentials. Design/methodology/approach – Using administrative data from the Spanish Social Security and the Tax Administration National Agency, the paper estimates OLS and quantile regression (QR) models in order to assess the impact of personal, job and workplace attributes on between- and within-groups wage inequality. Findings – Among other things, we find that, although the average wage has been increasing over time (un...

The interplay of the unemployment compensation system, fixed-term contracts and rehirings: The case of Spain

Purpose - – Using a Spanish administrative data set, the authors document the importance of recalls in labour market transitions. The authors focus on two issues: the interplay between the unemployment compensation system, the widespread use of fixed-term contracts and the layoff-rehire process; and the use of implicit contracts and, hence, the existence of cross-subsidisation between industries and firms within unemployment insurance. The purpose of this paper is to estimate a duration model with competing risks of exits in order to investigate the individual, job and firm attributes that influence the probabilities of leaving unemployment to return to the same employer or to find a new job. The findings indicate that recalls are very common and that, although they are widespread among the labour market, there are certain types of contract, firms and sectors which are more prone to use them. Design/methodology/approach - – The authors estimate a duration model with competing risks of exits in order to investigate the individual, job and firm attributes that influence the probabilities of leaving unemployment to return to the same employer or to find a new job with a different employer. Findings - – The findings indicate that recalls are very common and that, although they are widespread along the Spanish labour market, there are certain types of contract, firms and sectors which are more prone to use them. Practical implications - – Overall, the results suggest that there is room for the reform of the way the UCS is financed, in combination with changes in other labour market institutions. Originality/value - – The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it documents the importance of rehirings in labour market transitions, in general, and in compensated unemployment, in particular, highlighting the use of different types of contract (in particular, temporary ones) and using a large data set for Spain. Second, it examines the interplay between the unemployment compensation system, the use of temporary contracts and the layoff-rehire process, focusing its attention on the likely cross-subsidisation of firms and sectors with respect to unemployment benefits . This constitutes a relevant research and policy issue since it has to do with the design of the unemployment compensation system.

WORKER TURNOVER AND WAGES IN EUROPE: THE INFLUENCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND INACTIVITY

This paper aims to estimate the impact of different labour market transitions on wages by applying recent panel data methods designed to address problems of sample selectivity, unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity to longitudinal data on individual workers from six European countries for the period 1995–2001. In particular, we examine whether job interruptions due to unemployment or inactivity have any significant influence on subsequent wages, the magnitude of this influence and whether differences in relative wage gains/losses exist across countries. The main findings are explained in terms of differences in institutions.

Consensus statement on definition, diagnosis, and management of high-risk prostate cancer patients on behalf of the Spanish Groups of Uro-Oncology Societies URONCOR, GUO, and SOGUG

PurposeProstate cancer (PCa) is the most prevalent malignancy in men and the second cause of mortality in industrialized countries.MethodsBased on Spanish Register of PCa, the incidence of high-risk PCa is 29%, approximately. In spite of the evidence-based beneficial effect of radiotherapy and androgen deprivation therapy in high-risk PCa, these patients (pts) are still a therapeutic challenge for all specialists involved, in part due to the absence of comparative studies to establish which of the present disposable treatments offer better results.ResultsNowadays, high-risk PCa definition is not well consensual through the published oncology guides. Clinical stage, tumour grade, and number of risk factors are relevant to be considered on PCa prognosis. However, these factors are susceptible to change depending on when surgical or radiation therapy is considered to be the treatment of choice. Other factors, such as reference pathologist, different diagnosis biopsy schedules, surgical or radiotherapy techniques, adjuvant treatments, biochemical failures, and follow-up, make it difficult to compare the results between different therapeutic options.ConclusionsThis article reviews important issues concerning high-risk PCa. URONCOR, GUO, and SOGUG on behalf of the Spanish Groups of Uro-Oncology Societies have reached a consensus addressing a practical recommendation on definition, diagnosis, and management of high-risk PCa.

Duration of Joblessness and Long-term Unemployment: Is Duration as Long as Official Statistics Say?

This article provides an in-depth analysis of duration statistics based on cross-sectional information and compares these statistics with others based on longitudinal data. The objective is to challenge the vision conveyed by conventional data on the incomplete duration of spells of unemployment. We interpret our results as indicating that this sort of information offers a poor guide in countries where labour turnover is large, as is the case in the Spanish labour market. Therefore it should not be used (at least, not alone) to inform policymakers’ decisions and economists’ theoretical works.

The ‘effective’ measure of unemployment benefit duration: data on spells or individuals?

Using administrative data, this article measures the ‘effective’ duration of unemployment benefit recipiency. Our results suggest that this duration varies considerably when we use spells instead of data on individuals. The exit hazard rate from unemployment using spells is overestimated when compared to the one obtained with data on individuals and, therefore, the expected duration of unemployment benefit recipiency is underestimated.

The changing use of short-time work schemes: Evidence from two recessions:

We explore differences in resort to short-time work schemes between the recessions in the early 1990s and the late 2000s in Spain and Italy and explore how far these are associated with differences in employees’ personal and job-related characteristics. We use individual data from national Labour Force Surveys and perform a multivariate detailed decomposition. We find that participation in these schemes in the second recession would have been even greater without the changes in skills and production structures in both countries.