José María Baldasano

A long Saharan dust event over the western Mediterranean: Lidar, Sun photometer observations, and regional dust modeling

A long Saharan dust event affected the western Mediterranean in the period 12– 28 June 2002. Dust was present mainly between 1- and 5-km height affecting most parts of the Iberian Peninsula and reaching western/central Europe. Intensive backscatter lidar observations over Barcelona (Spain) and Sun photometer data from two stations (El Arenosillo, Spain, and Avignon, France) are used to evaluate different configurations the Dust Regional Atmospheric Modeling (DREAM) system. DREAM currently operates dust forecasts over the Mediterranean region (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/ DREAM/) considering four particle size bins while only the first two are relevant for long-range transport analysis since their life time is larger than 12 hours. A more detailed bin method is implemented, and two different dust distributions at sources are compared to the operational version. Evaluations are performed at two wavelengths (532 and 1064 nm). The dust horizontal and vertical structure simulated by DREAM shows very good qualitative agreement when compared to SeaWIFS satellite images and lidar height-time displays over Barcelona. When evaluating the modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) against Sun photometer data, significant improvements are achieved with the use of the new detailed bin method. In general, the model underpredicts the AOD for increasing A ° ngstro¨m exponents because of the influence of anthropogenic pollution in the boundary layer. In fact, the modeled AOD is highly anticorrelated with the observed A ° ngstro¨m exponents. Avignon shows higher influence of small anthropogenic aerosols which explains the better results of the model at the wavelength of 1064 nm over this location. The uncertainties of backscatter lidar inversions (20–30%) are in the same order of magnitude as the differences between the model experiments. Better model results are obtained when comparing to lidar because most of the anthropogenic effect is removed.

Cluster analysis of 4 day back trajectories arriving in the Barcelona Area (Spain) from 1997 to 2002

A cluster algorithm was implemented to analyze the backward trajectories arriving in the Barcelona area (BCN), located at the eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Five years of 4-day kinematic back trajectories, computed with version 4 of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), were clustered and classified in groups of similar length and curvature. To describe better the tropospheric circulations at BCN, backward trajectories arriving at 5500, 3000, and 1500 m above sea level were analyzed. The main transport patterns are identified at 5500 m: westerly flows (49% of the total situations), northwesterly flows (17%), southwesterly flows (20%), and regional recirculations over Europe and the Mediterranean Sea (15%). An annual distribution of the transport patterns is described. During the summertime, moderate westerlies (19%) and southwesterlies (13%) in the middle troposphere, slow westerlies (11%) and southwesterlies (10%) at 3000 m, and regional recirculations (29%) at 1500 m characterize the BCN long-range transport. This general pattern varies during wintertime, with more westerlies at 5500 m and an increase of northern and northwestern situations at 1500 m. A large number of situations with decoupling between the lower and middle troposphere are observed when combining 5500- and 1500-m cluster results. Interannual variability is discussed, and the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation phase is captured by winter average regime patterns.

Development and evaluation of the BSC-DREAM8b dust regional model over Northern Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East

The BSC-DREAM8b model and its predecessor are analysed in terms of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2004 over Northern Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. We discuss the model performance and we test and analyse its behaviour with new components. The results are evaluated using hourly data from 44 AERONET stations and seasonally averaged satellite observations. The operational versions strongly underestimate the winter AOD over the Sahel and overestimate the AOD over the Middle East and the Mediterranean achieving a low average annual correlation (~0.35). The use of a more detailed size distribution and a corrected wash-out ratio, together with a new dry deposition scheme, improves the transport over the Mediterranean, although underestimations remain over the Sahel and overestimations over the Middle East. The inclusion of a ‘preferential source’ mask improves the localisation of the main North African sources and consequently the dust transport towards Europe and the Atlantic. The use of a more physically based dust emission scheme and a new soil texture database leads to significant improvements in the representation of emissions and the transport over the Sahel, achieving an average annual correlation of 0.53. In this case, the use of a preferential source mask does not introduce significant improvements.

Comparison of photochemical mechanisms for air quality modeling

Abstract Photochemical mechanisms are a critical module of air quality models. In the past 20 years, several mechanisms have been developed to study the chemistry of the troposphere. This work compares several state-of-the-science photochemical mechanisms (including LCC, CBM-IV, RADM2, EMEP, RACM, SAPRC99, and CACM which have never been compared before in other studies). Concise descriptions of the chemical schemes are included. The main difference among existing mechanisms is the lumping technique used to classify organic compounds into surrogate groups. First, box model calculations are conducted to highlight the features that lead to differences in the modeled behaviors of photochemical pollutants and their precursors. Results indicate that most chemical schemes yield similar ozone concentrations. Nevertheless, there are significant discrepancies, mainly in predicted concentration of HNO 3 , HO 2 and total PAN among model simulations. Finally, the sources of the discrepancy are identified.

An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain.

The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, aims at establishing an air quality forecasting system for Spain. With this goal, CALIOPE modeling system was developed and applied with high resolution (4km×4km, 1h) using the HERMES emission model (including emissions of resuspended particles from paved roads) specifically built up for Spain. The present study provides an evaluation and the assessment of the modeling system, coupling WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b for a full-year simulation in 2004 over Spain. The evaluation focuses on the capability of the model to reproduce the temporal and spatial distribution of gas phase species (NO(2), O(3), and SO(2)) and particulate matter (PM10) against ground-based measurements from the Spanish air quality monitoring network. The evaluation of the modeling results on an hourly basis shows a strong dependency of the performance of the model on the type of environment (urban, suburban and rural) and the dominant emission sources (traffic, industrial, and background). The O(3) chemistry is best represented in summer, when mean hourly variability and high peaks are generally well reproduced. The mean normalized error and bias meet the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) and the European regulations. Modeled O(3) shows higher performance for urban than for rural stations, especially at traffic stations in large cities, since stations influenced by traffic emissions (i.e., high-NO(x) environments) are better characterized with a more pronounced daily variability. NO(x)/O(3) chemistry is better represented under non-limited-NO(2) regimes. SO(2) is mainly produced from isolated point sources (power generation and transformation industries) which generate large plumes of high SO(2) concentration affecting the air quality on a local to national scale where the meteorological pattern is crucial. The contribution of mineral dust from the Sahara desert through the BSC-DREAM8b model helps to satisfactorily reproduce episodic high PM10 concentration peaks at background stations. The model assessment indicates that one of the main air quality-related problems in Spain is the high level of O(3). A quarter of the Iberian Peninsula shows more than 30days exceeding the value 120μgm(-3) for the maximum 8-h O(3) concentration as a consequence of the transport of O(3) precursors downwind to/from the Madrid and Barcelona metropolitan areas, and industrial areas and cities in the Mediterranean coast.

Urban photochemical pollution in the Iberian Peninsula: Lisbon and Barcelona airsheds.

Abstract Numerical simulations with photochemical transport models were independently performed for two domains situated in the Iberian Peninsula covering the Lisbon and Barcelona airsheds. Although the days chosen for simulation of the two cities are not the same, the synoptic situations in both cases, known as typical summertime situations, were similar, which allowed the development of typical mesoscale circulations, such as sea breezes and mountain and valley winds dominated by the Azores anticyclone. Emission inventories for the two areas were developed. The O3 concentrations recorded in both cities have a similar level. Nevertheless, Ox values in Barcelona are higher than in Lisbon, which may, at a first glance, indicate an apparently more oxidant atmosphere in Barcelona. Photochemical modeling for the two cities has shown that the behavior of the circulatory patterns in both urban areas is rather different, which mainly has to do with the different strengths of the sea breeze and the topography, inducing an important offshore vertical layered dimension of pollutant transport in Barcelona versus an important inland horizontal transport in Lisbon.

Soil Dust Aerosols and Wind as Predictors of Seasonal Meningitis Incidence in Niger

Background: Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa during the dry season, a period when the region is affected by the Harmattan, a dry and dusty northeasterly trade wind blowing from the Sahara into the Gulf of Guinea. Objectives: We examined the potential of climate-based statistical forecasting models to predict seasonal incidence of meningitis in Niger at both the national and district levels. Data and methods: We used time series of meningitis incidence from 1986 through 2006 for 38 districts in Niger. We tested models based on data that would be readily available in an operational framework, such as climate and dust, population, and the incidence of early cases before the onset of the meningitis season in January–May. Incidence was used as a proxy for immunological state, susceptibility, and carriage in the population. We compared a range of negative binomial generalized linear models fitted to the meningitis data. Results: At the national level, a model using early incidence in December and averaged November–December zonal wind provided the best fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.57), with zonal wind having the greatest impact. A model with surface dust concentration as a predictive variable performed indistinguishably well. At the district level, the best spatiotemporal model included zonal wind, dust concentration, early incidence in December, and population density (pseudo-R2 = 0.41). Conclusions: We showed that wind and dust information and incidence in the early dry season predict part of the year-to-year variability of the seasonal incidence of meningitis at both national and district levels in Niger. Models of this form could provide an early-season alert that wind, dust, and other conditions are potentially conducive to an epidemic. Citation: Pérez García-Pando C, Stanton MC, Diggle PJ, Trzaska S, Miller RL, Perlwitz JP, Baldasano JM, Cuevas E, Ceccato P, Yaka P, Thomson MC. 2014. Soil dust aerosols and wind as predictors of seasonal meningitis incidence in Niger. Environ Health Perspect 122:679–686; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306640

Using NOAA AVHRR and SPOT VGT data to estimate surface parameters: application to a mesoscale meteorological model

The mesoscale numerical weather prediction model MM5, the 5th generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model, uses a global land-use map to set the physical parameters on the surface characteristics to model the soil-atmosphere processes. These parameters are albedo, emissivity, thermal inertia, roughness length and soil moisture. A new estimation of soil parameters is done for the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula from an AVHRR data set of year 2000. The new values are introduced into MM5 via a new land-use map, the recent NATLAN 2000-CORINE land-use map, in order to incorporate the last decade land-cover changes. The model is tested with the original and the CORINE land-use map to evaluate the sensitivity to land-use changes and new physical soil parameters definition. Results show clear local differences in some meteorological variables as wind fields or updraft movements, but comparisons with ground measurements do not lead to a clear improvement in the model general performance.

Circulatory Patterns of Air Pollutants within the Barcelona Air Basin in a Summertime situation: Lidar and Numerical Approaches

This work examines circulatory patterns of airpollutants in the area of Barcelona (Spain), a regionwith strong coastal and orographic influences. Thiswas achieved through exploitation ofelastic-backscatter lidar data and by numericalsimulation of the atmosphere with a meteorologicalmesoscale model (MEMO). Lidar data were acquired inJuly 1992 during a collaborative campaign between LosAlamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the PolytechnicUniversity of Catalonia (UPC). The lidar providedinformation about the distribution of aerosols and theprevailing winds, determined by application of amaximum cross-correlation algorithm toelastic-backscatter lidar data. Lidar winds are usedto evaluate high altitude winds simulated by themodel. This study showed that circulatory patterns inBarcelona are correlated with daytime convectivevertical mixing, sea-breeze circulations, and verticalforcing caused by mountain thermal and mechanicaleffects.

Saharan dust deposition may affect phytoplankton growth in the mediterranean sea at ecological time scales

The surface waters of the Mediterranean Sea are extremely poor in the nutrients necessary for plankton growth. At the same time, the Mediterranean Sea borders with the largest and most active desert areas in the world and the atmosphere over the basin is subject to frequent injections of mineral dust particles. We describe statistical correlations between dust deposition over the Mediterranean Sea and surface chlorophyll concentrations at ecological time scales. Aerosol deposition of Saharan origin may explain 1 to 10% (average 5%) of seasonally detrended chlorophyll variability in the low nutrient-low chlorophyll Mediterranean. Most of the statistically significant correlations are positive with main effects in spring over the Eastern and Central Mediterranean, conforming to a view of dust events fueling needed nutrients to the planktonic community. Some areas show negative effects of dust deposition on chlorophyll, coinciding with regions under a large influence of aerosols from European origin. The influence of dust deposition on chlorophyll dynamics may become larger in future scenarios of increased aridity and shallowing of the mixed layer.