Josef C. Brada

Economic Integration among Developed, Developing and Centrally Planned Economies: A Comparative Analysis

We examine six integration schemes and decompose their ability to increase inter-member trade into environmental, policy and system effects. Environmental factors caused the greatest variation in trade creation, with inter-member distance the most important environmental variable. The CACM and EFTA have followed more effective integration policies than the EEC, LAFTA and the Andean Pact. Although integration can thus benefit developed and developing countries alike, for some, such as those in Latin America, inter-member distances severely limit its effectiveness. While the combination of policy and system has kept the CMEA fromrr achieving its full potential for increasing inter-member trade, its effectiveness does not differ from that of unions among market economies.

The Effects of Transition and Political Instability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans

This paper examines the effect of transition and of political instability on FDI flows to the transition economies of Central Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. We find that FDI to transition economies unaffected by conflict and political instability exceed those that would be expected for comparable West European countries. Success with stabilization and reform tends to increase FDI inflows. In the case of Balkan counties, conflict and instability have reduced FDI inflows below what one would expect for comparable West European countries, and reform and stabilization failures have further reduced FDI to the region. Thus the economic costs of instability in the Balkans have been quite high.

The Convergence of Monetary Policy Between Candidate Countries and the European Union

A non-phase separable glass material for fabricating a GRIN lens comprises 5-20 mole % boron oxide and ratio R of network modifiers in mole % to the network former boron oxide in mole % is in the range of about 1-1.5. The melted preform of such glass material is extruded through an opening to form a glass rod where the extrusion process eliminates bubbles that may be present in the preform. Neodymium oxide may be added in the frit material for forming the preform to reduce friction forces in the extrusion process and reduces the stress in the glass rod. Centerless grinding may be performed to control the diameter and roughness of the surface of the rod to control the diffusion parameters during the subsequent ion-exchange.

The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows

This paper examines the effects of transition and of political instability on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the transition economies of Central Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. We find that FDI flows to transition economies unaffected by conflict and political instability exceed those that would be expected for comparable West European countries. Success with stabilization and reform increased the volume of FDI inflows. In the case of Balkan counties, conflict and instability reduced FDI inflows below what one would expect for comparable West European countries, and reform and stabilization failures further reduced FDI to the region. Thus, we find that the economic costs of instability in the Balkans in terms of foregone FDI have been quite high.

The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience

In this article, we examine the responsiveness of Turkeys trade balance to devaluation accompanied by trade liberalisation. Our results show that the trade balance was responsive to changes in the exchange rate that were brought about by the economic reforms introduced in the 1980s, suggesting that exchange rate policy was able to create and maintain a satisfactory balance of trade position in the 1980s and early 1990s.

Technological progress and technical efficiency in Chinese industrial growth: A frontier production function approach

Abstract We estimate a frontier production function for Chinese industry for the period 1953–1985. Contrary to prior studies based on OLS estimates, we find that Chinese industry has been characterized by a rate of growth of technological progress between 1.8 and 3.6 percent per year. We also find that the capital-saving nature of technological progress has adversely affected Chinese productivity growth because of increases in the capital-labor ratio. The utilization of industrial resources has been quite suboptimal for much of the sample period, with industrial production well off the production frontier. These deviations from efficient resource use reflect well-known political and economic developments that disrupted economic activity. Finally, both technical efficiency and total factor productivity increased appreciably in the period 1978–1985, suggesting that the reforms have had some positive impact on industrial performance.

The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies

This paper examines the moderation of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of the 1990s. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation were the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the moderation of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was due largely to the decline in import prices from 1997 on, and thus it is likely be a temporary phenomenon.

Is There a J-Curve for the Economic Transition from Socialism to Capitalism?

It is often assumed that the process of transition from socialism to capitalism involves a dislocation and disorganization of the economy in the early stages of the transition. Thus, it is argued, economic performance will at first worsen and then gradually improve as the new system takes hold. This paper argues that, based on evidence from Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, there is no evidence for such a J-curve phenomenon. Using a simple macroeconomic model, the authors show that, in these three reforming countries, the decline in production can be explained by exogenous shocks to the balance of trade, to investments and to autonomous consumption. This finding also suggests that macroeconomic policy in these countries may be too restrictive to permit a recovery of employment and production. Copyright 1992 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Is Private Farming More Efficient than Socialized Agriculture

This paper examines the technical efficiency of state and private farms in Poland for the period 1960-74. The author s find that the average technical efficiency of the two types of farms does not differ, although the dispersion of efficiency levels is greater among state farms than among private ones. The authors do fi nd clear evidence of allocative inefficiency, with state farms oversupplied with fertilizer and machinery. Copyright 1993 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

China's exchange rate and the balance of trade

This paper examines the responsiveness of the balance of trade of the Peoples Republic of China to the real exchange rate. We find that, in both the short-run and the long-run, devaluation serves to improve the balance of trade. Using quarterly data for 1980:I to 1989:IV we show that the bulk of the response to devaluation occurs over a one year period, with noJ-curve effect. These results suggest that the two-tier price system and other measures to liberalize the Chinese economy have made the exchange rate an effective indirect tool for regulating trade.