Josef Schmidhuber

Global food security under climate change

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses.

The nutrition transition to 2030. Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden

Abstract Considerable increases in food consumption, shifts in consumption patterns and changes in the entire food system have occurred globally. These changes, initially limited to the industrialized world, are now being experienced at an even faster pace in many of the advanced economies of the developing world. The past evolution of this transition in nutrition and lifestyles is by now well documented. Based on FAOs outlook for global food and agriculture, this paper outlines the likely future changes in food consumption patterns and the global trajectory of the nutrition transition over the next 30 years. It presents the main drivers of the nutrition transition and examines their influence on the prospective changes in consumption patterns. The paper illustrates how the current burden of undernourishment and malnutrition in developing countries is likely to compound the adverse effects of the nutrition transition, notably the increasing prevalence of obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs); it shows how and where the current problem of undernutrition could create a growing future burden of overweight, obesity and NCDs and that both undernourishment and overnutrition are likely to co-exist for a long time in the vast majority of developing countries, creating a widespread double burden of malnutrition.

The changing structure of diets in the European Union in relation to healthy eating guidelines

OBJECTIVE Our objective in this paper is to assess diets in the European Union (EU) in relation to the recommendations of the recent World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization expert consultation and to show how diets have changed between 1961 and 2001. DATA AND METHODS Computations make use of FAOSTAT data on food availability at country level linked to a food composition database to convert foods to nutrients. We further explore the growing similarity of diets in the EU by making use of a consumption similarity index. The index provides a single number measure of dietary overlap between countries. RESULTS The data confirm the excessive consumption by almost all countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugars, and the convergence of nutrient intakes across the EU. Whereas in 1961 diets in several European countries were more similar to US diets than to those of other European countries, this is no longer the case; moreover, while EU diets have become more homogeneous, the EU as a whole and the USA have become less similar over time. CONCLUSIONS Although the dominant cause of greater similarity in EU diets over the period studied is increased intakes in Mediterranean countries of saturated fats, cholesterol and sugar, also important are reductions in saturated fat and sugar in some Northern European countries. This suggests that healthy eating messages are finally having an impact on diets; a distinctly European diet may also be emerging.

Introductory Lecture The Epidemiology and Determinants of Obesity in Developed and Developing Countries

Obesity is recognized as a serious problem in the industrialized and developed countries of the world. However, little attention is paid to the fact that obesity is becoming an increasing problem in developing countries too, with some countries showing increasing rates of obesity in the midst of the persisting occurrence of childhood malnutrition and stunting. As developing countries embrace the dominant western economic ways of development, industrialization and urbanization they contribute to improvements in living standards, with consequent dramatic changes in diets and lifestyles leading to weight gain and obesity which in turn poses a growing threat to the health. Overweight and obesity is associated with an increased likelihood of non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyper-lipidaemia, and cardiovascular disease. It is also associated with increased rates of breast, colo-rectal and uterine cancer. Obesity is thus an important factor in the increasing morbidity and mortality due to chronic, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and thereby contributes to premature mortality in the population. Thus, while the problem of undernutrition persists in much of the developing world, overweight and obesity and its related co-morbidities are posing an increasingly important public health problem both in the developed and developing world.