Joseph D. DiBattista

It's about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild.

Selection is a central process in nature. Although our understanding of the strength and form of selection has increased, a general understanding of the temporal dynamics of selection in nature is lacking. Here, we assembled a database of temporal replicates of selection from studies of wild populations to synthesize what we do (and do not) know about the temporal dynamics of selection. Our database contains 5519 estimates of selection from 89 studies, including estimates of both direct and indirect selection as well as linear and nonlinear selection. Morphological traits and studies focused on vertebrates were well-represented, with other traits and taxonomic groups less well-represented. Overall, three major features characterize the temporal dynamics of selection. First, the strength of selection often varies considerably from year to year, although random sampling error of selection coefficients may impose bias in estimates of the magnitude of such variation. Second, changes in the direction of selection are frequent. Third, changes in the form of selection are likely common, but harder to quantify. Although few studies have identified causal mechanisms underlying temporal variation in the strength, direction and form of selection, variation in environmental conditions driven by climatic fluctuations appear to be common and important.

The spatial patterns of directional phenotypic selection.

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated studies of directional phenotypic selection from natural populations. The data set includes 60 studies, consisting of 3937 estimates of selection across an average of five populations. We performed meta-analyses to explore features characterising spatial variation in directional selection. We found that selection tends to vary mainly in strength and less in direction among populations. Although differences in the direction of selection occur among populations they do so where selection is often weakest, which may limit the potential for ongoing adaptive population divergence. Overall, we also found that spatial variation in selection appears comparable to temporal (annual) variation in selection within populations; however, several deficiencies in available data currently complicate this comparison. We discuss future research needs to further advance our understanding of spatial variation in selection.

Patterns of genetic variation in anthropogenically impacted populations

Genetic variation is considered critical for allowing natural populations to adapt to their changing environment, and yet the effects of human disturbance on genetic variation in the wild are poorly understood. Different types of human disturbances may genetically impact natural populations in a predictable manner and so the aim of this study was to provide an overview of these changes using a quantitative literature review approach. I examined both allozyme and microsatellite estimates of genetic variation from peer-reviewed journals, using the mean number of alleles per locus and expected heterozygosity as standardized metrics. Populations within each study were categorized according to the type of human disturbance experienced (“hunting/harvest”, “habitat fragmentation”, or “pollution”), and taxon-specific, as well as time- and context-dependent disturbance effects were considered. I found that human disturbances are associated with weak, but consistent changes in neutral genetic variation within natural populations. The direction of change was dependent on the type of human disturbance experienced, with some forms of anthropogenic challenges consistently decreasing genetic variation from background patterns (e.g., habitat fragmentation), whereas others had no effect (e.g., hunting/harvest) or even slightly increased genetic variation (e.g., pollution). These same measures appeared sensitive to both the time of origin and duration of the disturbance as well. This suggests that the presence or absence, strength, type, as well as the spatial and temporal scale of human disturbance experienced may warrant careful consideration when conservation management plans are formulated for natural populations, with particular attention paid to the effects of habitat fragmentation.

When bigger is not better: selection against large size, high condition and fast growth in juvenile lemon sharks

Selection acting on large marine vertebrates may be qualitatively different from that acting on terrestrial or freshwater organisms, but logistical constraints have thus far precluded selection estimates for the former. We overcame these constraints by exhaustively sampling and repeatedly recapturing individuals in six cohorts of juvenile lemon sharks (450 age‐0 and 255 age‐1 fish) at an enclosed nursery site (Bimini, Bahamas). Data on individual size, condition factor, growth rate and inter‐annual survival were used to test the ‘bigger is better’, ‘fatter is better’ and ‘faster is better’ hypotheses of life‐history theory. For age‐0 sharks, selection on all measured traits was weak, and generally acted against large size and high condition. For age‐1 sharks, selection was much stronger, and consistently acted against large size and fast growth. These results suggest that selective pressures at Bimini may be constraining the evolution of large size and fast growth, an observation that fits well with the observed small size and low growth rate of juveniles at this site. Our results support those of some other recent studies in suggesting that bigger/fatter/faster is not always better, and may often be worse.

Differences in the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection among fitness components in the wild

The balance of selection acting through different fitness components (e.g. fecundity, mating success, survival) determines the potential tempo and trajectory of adaptive evolution. Yet the extent to which the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection may vary among fitness components is poorly understood. Here, we compiled a database of 3978 linear selection coefficients from temporally replicated studies of selection in wild populations to address this question. Across studies, we find that multi-year selection through mating success and fecundity is stronger than selection through survival, but varies less in direction. We also report that selection through mating success varies more in long-term average strength than selection through either survival or fecundity. The consistency in direction and stronger long-term average strength of selection through mating success and fecundity suggests that selection through these fitness components should cause more persistent directional evolution relative to selection through survival. Similar patterns were apparent for the subset of studies that evaluated the temporal dynamics of selection on traits simultaneously using several different fitness components, but few such studies exist. Taken together, these results reveal key differences in the temporal dynamics of selection acting through different fitness components, but they also reveal important limitations in our understanding of how selection drives adaptive evolution.

Two decades of genetic profiling yields first evidence of natal philopatry and long‐term fidelity to parturition sites in sharks

Sharks are a globally threatened group of marine fishes that often breed in their natal region of origin. There has even been speculation that female sharks return to their exact birthplace to breed (‘natal philopatry’), which would have important conservation implications. Genetic profiling of lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) from 20 consecutive cohorts (1993–2012) at Bimini, Bahamas, showed that certain females faithfully gave birth at this site for nearly two decades. At least six females born in the 1993–1997 cohorts returned to give birth 14–17 years later, providing the first direct evidence of natal philopatry in the chondrichthyans. Long‐term fidelity to specific nursery sites coupled with natal philopatry highlights the merits of emerging spatial and local conservation efforts for these threatened predators.

Are indirect genetic benefits associated with polyandry? Testing predictions in a natural population of lemon sharks

Multiple mating has clear fitness benefits for males, but uncertain benefits and costs for females. We tested for indirect genetic benefits of polyandry in a natural population, by using data from a long‐term genetic and demographic study of lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) at Bimini, Bahamas. To do so, we followed the fates of individuals from six cohorts (450 age‐0 and 254 age‐1 fish) in relation to their individual level of genetic variation, and whether they were from polyandrous or monoandrous litters. We find that offspring from polyandrous litters did not have a greater genetic diversity or greater survival than did the offspring of monoandrous litters. We also find no evidence of positive associations between individual offspring genetic diversity metrics and our surrogate measure of fitness (i.e. survival). In fact, age‐1 individuals with fewer heterozygous microsatellite loci and more genetically similar parents were more likely to survive to age‐2. Thus, polyandry in female lemon sharks does not appear to be adaptive from the perspective of indirect genetic benefits to offspring. It may instead be the result of convenience polyandry, whereby females mate multiply to avoid harassment by males. Our inability to find indirect genetic benefits of polyandry despite detailed pedigree and survival information suggests the need for similar assessments in other natural populations.

A genetic assessment of polyandry and breeding-site fidelity in lemon sharks

We here employ 11 microsatellite markers and recently developed litter reconstruction methods to infer mating system parameters (i.e. polyandry and breeding‐site fidelity) at a lemon shark nursery site in Marquesas Key, Florida. Four hundred and eight juvenile or subadult sharks were genotyped over eight complete breeding seasons. Using this information, we were able to infer family structure, as well as fully or partially reconstruct genotypes of 46 mothers and 163 fathers. Multiple litter reconstruction methods were used, and novel simulations helped define apparent bias and precision of at least some mating system parameters. For Marquesas Key, we find that adult female lemon sharks display high levels of polyandry (81% of all litters sampled) and stronger fidelity to the nursery site than do males. Indeed, few male sharks sired offspring from more than one litter during the course of the study. These findings were quite similar to previous results from another lemon shark nursery site (Bimini, Bahamas), suggesting conserved mating system parameters despite significant variation in early life‐history traits (i.e. body size and growth) among sites. The finding of at least some site fidelity in females also supports the need for careful conservation of each nursery.

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection

Climate-driven selection Climate change will fundamentally alter many aspects of the natural world. To understand how species may adapt to this change, we must understand which aspects of the changing climate exert the most powerful selective forces. Siepielski et al. looked at studies of selection across species and regions and found that, across biomes, the strongest sources of selection were precipitation and transpiration changes. Importantly, local and regional climate change explained patterns of selection much more than did global change. Science, this issue p. 959 Local and regional climate changes in rainfall explain patterns of species selection across biomes more than global change. Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptation—natural selection—are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.

Comparative phylogeography of the ocean planet.

Understanding how geography, oceanography, and climate have ultimately shaped marine biodiversity requires aligning the distributions of genetic diversity across multiple taxa. Here, we examine phylogeographic partitions in the sea against a backdrop of biogeographic provinces defined by taxonomy, endemism, and species composition. The taxonomic identities used to define biogeographic provinces are routinely accompanied by diagnostic genetic differences between sister species, indicating interspecific concordance between biogeography and phylogeography. In cases where individual species are distributed across two or more biogeographic provinces, shifts in genotype frequencies often align with biogeographic boundaries, providing intraspecific concordance between biogeography and phylogeography. Here, we provide examples of comparative phylogeography from (i) tropical seas that host the highest marine biodiversity, (ii) temperate seas with high productivity but volatile coastlines, (iii) migratory marine fauna, and (iv) plankton that are the most abundant eukaryotes on earth. Tropical and temperate zones both show impacts of glacial cycles, the former primarily through changing sea levels, and the latter through coastal habitat disruption. The general concordance between biogeography and phylogeography indicates that the population-level genetic divergences observed between provinces are a starting point for macroevolutionary divergences between species. However, isolation between provinces does not account for all marine biodiversity; the remainder arises through alternative pathways, such as ecological speciation and parapatric (semiisolated) divergences within provinces and biodiversity hotspots.